Los Angeles Angels Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Indians 2-9, playoff odds down 6.6 to 9.2%

65-65 .500

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Giants 5 Angels 4	-2.2		-0.2
Royals 1 Tigers 2	-0.3
Rangers 8 Athletics 7	+0.3

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Giants 5 Angels 0	-2.1		-0.2
Royals 4 Tigers 6	-0.2
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7	+0.2
Rangers 1 Athletics 7	-0.2
Astros 7 Mariners 6	*-0.1
Twins 13 White Sox 3	*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Angels finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

97	32	-	0	In		15	67	19													577,398
96	31	-	1	In		22	56	22													9
95	30	-	2	In		5	50	45													159
94	29	-	3	In		1	31	68	1												1,548
93	28	-	4	In		0	18	79	3	0											13,092
92	27	-	5	100.0	%	0	8	85	6	1	0										83,311
91	26	-	6	100.0		0	3	80	12	5	0										430,008
90	25	-	7	100.0		0	1	68	17	15	0										1,824,314
89	24	-	8	99.8		0	0	50	19	30	0	0									6,495,560
88	23	-	9	98.6			0	32	17	49	1	0	0								19,675,642
87	22	-	10	94.0			0	17	12	65	6	0	0								51,249,869
86	21	-	11	82.2			0	7	6	69	17	1	0	0							115,748,330
85	20	-	12	62.3			0	2	2	58	33	5	0	0	0						228,087,821
84	19	-	13	38.6			0	1	1	37	46	15	1	0	0						393,875,910
83	18	-	14	18.3				0	0	18	46	31	5	0	0	0					598,162,356
82	17	-	15	6.1				0	0	6	32	44	16	2	0	0					800,707,609
81	16	-	16	1.3				0	0	1	14	43	32	8	1	0	0	0			945,982,316
80	15	-	17	0.1				0	0	0	4	27	42	23	4	0	0	0			986,844,857
79	14	-	18	0.0					0	0	1	11	35	38	14	2	0	0	0		908,502,186
78	13	-	19	0.0						0	0	2	17	39	31	9	1	0	0	0	737,215,850
77	12	-	20	0.0						0	0	0	4	23	39	26	7	1	0	0	525,951,641
76	11	-	21	Out							0	0	1	7	25	37	23	6	1	0	328,814,122
75	10	-	22	Out								0	0	1	8	26	36	22	6	1	179,306,787
74	9	-	23	Out									0	0	1	9	28	36	21	4	84,738,698
73	8	-	24	Out									0	0	0	2	12	32	38	17	34,419,916
72	7	-	25	Out										0	0	0	3	17	42	38	11,901,884
71	6	-	26	Out											0	0	0	6	32	62	3,448,770
70	5	-	27	Out												0	0	1	18	81	822,803
69	4	-	28	Out													0	0	8	92	157,828
68	3	-	29	Out														0	3	97	23,170
67	2	-	30	Out															1	99	2,474
66	1	-	31	Out															1	99	183
65	0	-	32	Out															0	100	577,399

Total:				9.2	%	0	0	1	0	8	14	20	19	16	10	6	3	2	1	0	6,965,643,820

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Giants 5 Angels 4	+0.5

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Giants 5 Angels 0	+0.5

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

97	32	-	0	0	7	38	44	10	0	0
96	31	-	1			33	67
95	30	-	2			14	47	35	4
94	29	-	3			3	29	51	15	2
93	28	-	4		0	1	13	47	32	8	1	0
92	27	-	5			0	3	29	41	21	5	1	0	0
91	26	-	6			0	1	12	32	34	17	4	0	0	0
90	25	-	7			0	0	3	15	32	32	16	3	0	0	0
89	24	-	8				0	0	4	16	33	33	13	0	0	0
88	23	-	9				0	0	1	5	20	41	33	1	0	0	0
87	22	-	10					0	0	1	7	31	56	3	2	1	0	0
86	21	-	11					0	0	0	1	15	66	5	9	4	0	0	0
85	20	-	12						0	0	0	5	58	5	17	14	2	0	0	0
84	19	-	13							0	0	1	38	2	19	30	9	1	0	0	0
83	18	-	14								0	0	18	1	12	38	24	6	1	0	0	0
82	17	-	15								0	0	6	0	5	28	37	19	5	1	0	0	0
81	16	-	16									0	1	0	1	11	31	34	17	4	0	0	0	0
80	15	-	17									0	0	0	0	2	14	31	32	16	4	0	0	0	0
79	14	-	18									0	0	0	0	0	3	15	30	31	16	4	0	0	0	0
78	13	-	19										0		0	0	0	4	15	30	31	16	4	0	0	0
77	12	-	20										0		0	0	0	0	3	14	30	32	16	4	0	0	0	0
76	11	-	21													0	0	0	0	3	14	30	32	17	4	0	0	0
75	10	-	22														0	0	0	0	3	13	29	33	17	4	0	0	0
74	9	-	23																0	0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0	0	0
73	8	-	24																	0	0	0	2	13	32	36	16	1	0	0
72	7	-	25																		0	0	0	3	17	39	36	5	0	0	0
71	6	-	26																			0	0	0	5	26	51	15	2	0	0
70	5	-	27																					0	1	12	48	31	7	1	0	0
69	4	-	28																						0	3	32	41	19	4	0	0
68	3	-	29																						0	1	14	36	33	13	2	0
67	2	-	30																							0	4	19	38	27	10	2	0
66	1	-	31																								1	7	24	33	30	5
65	0	-	32																								0	1	9	25	36	24	6

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	8	0	4	11	14	14	13	12	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0