Boston Red Sox Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Mets 4-5, playoff odds down 0.06 to 0.04%

60-70 .462

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Sox 2 Yankees 4	-2.8		-0.3
Royals 1 Tigers 2	-0.2
Indians 4 Blue Jays 11	-0.2
Giants 5 Angels 4	+0.2

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Sox 5 Yankees 8	-2.4		-0.3
Royals 4 Tigers 6	-0.2
Rangers 1 Athletics 7	-0.2
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7	+0.2
Giants 5 Angels 0	+0.2
Twins 13 White Sox 3	*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Sox finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

92		32	-	0	100.0	%	0	45	26	29	0	0										577,397
90		30	-	2	In			8	15	77												13
89		29	-	3	In			1	14	72	13											159
88		28	-	4	97.4			1	3	65	30	3	0									1,581
87		27	-	5	89.0			0	1	42	46	10	1									12,129
86		26	-	6	72.7			0	0	22	51	24	3	0								73,205
85		25	-	7	50.7				0	9	42	40	9	0	0							364,820
84		24	-	8	28.5				0	2	26	47	23	2	0	0						1,536,165
83		23	-	9	12.0				0	0	12	42	39	7	0	0						5,480,842
82		22	-	10	3.5					0	3	26	49	19	2	0	0	0				16,791,976
81		21	-	11	0.6					0	1	10	42	35	11	1	0	0				44,524,263
80		20	-	12	0.1					0	0	2	23	41	27	7	1	0	0			102,763,089
79		19	-	13	0.0						0	0	7	27	39	22	4	0	0	0		207,443,874
78		18	-	14	0.0						0	0	1	10	30	38	18	3	0	0	0	367,334,237
77		17	-	15	0.0						0	0	0	2	11	33	36	15	2	0	0	571,913,212
76		16	-	16	Out								0	0	2	15	36	34	12	2	0	783,947,827
75		15	-	17	Out								0	0	0	3	19	39	30	8	1	946,150,198
74		14	-	18	Out									0	0	0	6	26	41	23	4	1,005,017,352
73		13	-	19	Out										0	0	1	11	35	40	13	938,281,138
72		12	-	20	Out											0	0	3	20	47	30	767,848,156
71		11	-	21	Out											0	0	1	8	40	52	549,000,299
70		10	-	22	Out												0	0	2	26	71	341,241,994
69		9	-	23	Out												0	0	1	14	85	183,266,220
68		8	-	24	Out													0	0	7	93	84,291,484
67		7	-	25	Out													0	0	3	97	32,895,976
66		6	-	26	Out														0	1	99	10,719,207
65		5	-	27	Out														0	0	100	2,863,953
64		4	-	28	Out															0	100	612,452
63		3	-	29	Out															0	100	100,564
62		2	-	30	Out															0	100	11,729
60	-61				Out																100	578,309	*

Total:					0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	12	16	19	20	17	6,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Sox 2 Yankees 4	+0.6

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Sox 5 Yankees 8	+0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

92	32	-	0		0	1	22	39	27	9	2	0	0	0
90	30	-	2					8	31	38	23
89	29	-	3						11	19	35	31	3
88	28	-	4					0	1	10	28	44	14	2	1
87	27	-	5					0	0	2	12	41	34	6	4	1	0
86	26	-	6						0	0	2	24	46	9	13	5	1	0
85	25	-	7							0	0	9	42	7	21	17	4	0	0
84	24	-	8							0	0	2	26	4	21	31	14	2	0	0
83	23	-	9								0	0	12	1	12	34	31	9	1	0	0	0
82	22	-	10								0	0	3	0	4	21	40	24	7	1	0	0
81	21	-	11									0	1	0	1	7	28	36	21	6	1	0	0	0
80	20	-	12									0	0	0	0	1	10	28	33	20	6	1	0	0	0
79	19	-	13										0	0	0	0	2	11	26	32	21	7	1	0	0	0
78	18	-	14										0		0	0	0	2	9	24	33	23	8	1	0	0	0
77	17	-	15										0			0	0	0	1	8	23	34	24	8	1	0	0	0
76	16	-	16														0	0	0	1	7	23	36	25	7	1	0	0
75	15	-	17															0	0	0	1	7	25	38	23	5	0	0	0
74	14	-	18															0	0	0	0	1	9	30	39	18	3	0	0	0
73	13	-	19																	0	0	0	2	14	37	36	11	1	0	0	0
72	12	-	20																		0	0	0	4	22	44	27	4	0	0	0
71	11	-	21																			0	0	1	8	34	43	13	1	0	0	0
70	10	-	22																			0	0	0	2	18	45	29	6	1	0	0	0
69	9	-	23																				0	0	0	6	31	41	19	3	0	0	0
68	8	-	24																					0	0	1	13	36	34	13	2	0	0
67	7	-	25																					0	0	0	3	18	36	30	11	2	0
66	6	-	26																						0	0	0	5	21	36	27	9	1
65	5	-	27																							0	0	1	6	24	38	25	6
64	4	-	28																								0	0	1	9	29	41	20
63	3	-	29																										0	2	14	42	42
62	2	-	30																										0	0	4	30	66
61	1	-	31																												1	15	84
60	0	-	32																											0	0	5	95

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	11	15	18	17	11	5	2	0	0	0	0