Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Boston Red Sox Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Mets 4-5, playoff odds down 0.06 to 0.04%
60-70   .462

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Sox 2 Yankees 4 -2.8
-0.3
Royals 1 Tigers 2 -0.2
Indians 4 Blue Jays 11 -0.2
Giants 5 Angels 4 +0.2
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Sox 5 Yankees 8 -2.4
-0.3
Royals 4 Tigers 6 -0.2
Rangers 1 Athletics 7 -0.2
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7 +0.2
Giants 5 Angels 0 +0.2
Twins 13 White Sox 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Sox finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
9232-0100.0%045262900577,397
9030-2In8157713
8929-3In1147213159
8828-497.4136530301,581
8727-589.001424610112,129
8626-672.7002251243073,205
8525-750.7094240900364,820
8424-828.5022647232001,536,165
8323-912.0001242397005,480,842
8222-103.503264919200016,791,976
8121-110.6011042351110044,524,263
8020-120.10022341277100102,763,089
7919-130.00072739224000207,443,874
7818-140.0001103038183000367,334,237
7717-150.0000211333615200571,913,212
7616-16Out0021536341220783,947,827
7515-17Out000319393081946,150,198
7414-18Out000626412341,005,017,352
7313-19Out00111354013938,281,138
7212-20Out003204730767,848,156
7111-21Out00184052549,000,299
7010-22Out0022671341,241,994
699-23Out0011485183,266,220
688-24Out0079384,291,484
677-25Out0039732,895,976
666-26Out019910,719,207
655-27Out001002,863,953
644-28Out0100612,452
633-29Out0100100,564
622-30Out010011,729
60-61Out100578,309*
Total:0.0%000000124812161920176,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Red Sox 2 Yankees 4 +0.6
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Red Sox 5 Yankees 8 +0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9232-00122392792000
9030-28313823
8929-3111935313
8828-4011028441421
8727-50021241346410
8626-60022446913510
8525-70094272117400
8424-8002264213114200
8323-90012112343191000
8222-10003042140247100
8121-110101728362161000
8020-12000011028332061000
7919-13000021126322171000
7818-1400002924332381000
7717-1500001823342481000
7616-16000172336257100
7515-17000172538235000
7414-180000193039183000
7313-190002143736111000
7212-2000042244274000
7111-2100183443131000
7010-22000218452961000
699-2300063141193000
688-2400113363413200
677-2500031836301120
666-26000521362791
655-2700162438256
644-280019294120
633-2902144242
622-300043066
611-3111584
600-3200595
Total:0000000000001123581115181711520000