Baltimore Orioles Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Rangers 0-6, playoff odds down 3.2 to 2.4%

63-67 .485

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orioles 4 Rays 0	+2.4		+0.2
Royals 1 Tigers 2	-0.4
Indians 4 Blue Jays 11	-0.2
Rangers 8 Athletics 7	+0.2
Giants 5 Angels 4	+0.2
Twins 5 White Sox 3	*-0.1

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orioles 4 Rays 2	+2.6		+0.2
Royals 4 Tigers 6	-0.3
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7	+0.2
Rangers 1 Athletics 7	-0.2
Giants 5 Angels 0	+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Orioles finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

95	32	-	0	In		20	73	5	2												577,398
94	31	-	1	In		11	67	17	6												18
93	30	-	2	In		3	57	15	25												288
92	29	-	3	In		1	35	23	41	1											3,291
91	28	-	4	100.0	%	0	17	19	60	4	0										26,722
90	27	-	5	99.8		0	6	12	70	13	0										163,065
89	26	-	6	98.6		0	1	5	64	29	1	0									792,348
88	25	-	7	94.3		0	0	1	46	47	6	0									3,185,134
87	24	-	8	84.5			0	0	27	57	15	1	0								10,714,137
86	23	-	9	67.7			0	0	12	55	29	4	0	0							30,705,728
85	22	-	10	46.5			0	0	4	42	43	11	0	0	0						75,572,273
84	21	-	11	25.9				0	1	25	48	24	2	0	0						161,232,673
83	20	-	12	11.1				0	0	11	41	40	8	0	0	0					299,905,708
82	19	-	13	3.4					0	3	25	48	20	3	0	0	0				488,567,712
81	18	-	14	0.6					0	1	10	42	36	10	1	0	0	0			699,485,402
80	17	-	15	0.1					0	0	3	24	42	26	5	0	0	0			882,264,077
79	16	-	16	0.0						0	0	9	31	39	18	2	0	0	0		981,518,829
78	15	-	17	0.0						0	0	2	14	36	36	11	1	0	0	0	963,756,429
77	14	-	18	Out							0	0	3	19	42	28	7	1	0	0	834,842,715
76	13	-	19	Out							0	0	0	5	26	40	23	6	1	0	636,973,105
75	12	-	20	Out								0	0	1	9	30	36	20	4	0	427,143,871
74	11	-	21	Out								0	0	0	2	12	32	35	16	2	250,903,384
73	10	-	22	Out										0	0	3	16	36	34	10	128,475,868
72	9	-	23	Out										0	0	0	5	23	45	27	57,016,246
71	8	-	24	Out											0	0	1	10	40	49	21,749,646
70	7	-	25	Out											0	0	0	3	27	70	7,054,984
69	6	-	26	Out													0	1	15	85	1,917,089
68	5	-	27	Out														0	7	93	429,947
67	4	-	28	Out														0	3	97	76,695
66	3	-	29	Out															1	99	10,528
65	2	-	30	Out															0	100	1,050
64	1	-	31	Out																100	61
63	0	-	32	Out															0	100	577,399

Total:				2.4	%	0	0	0	0	2	7	15	17	18	16	11	7	4	2	1	6,965,643,820

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orioles 4 Rays 0	-0.5

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orioles 4 Rays 2	-0.5

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95	32	-	0	0	4	27	55	13	1	0	0
94	31	-	1			6	67	22	6
93	30	-	2			5	33	42	14	5	1
92	29	-	3		0	1	15	33	32	15	4	0
91	28	-	4			0	4	17	32	30	14	3	0	0
90	27	-	5			0	1	5	18	32	30	13	1	0	0
89	26	-	6				0	1	5	18	35	31	9	1	0	0	0
88	25	-	7				0	0	1	5	21	42	26	4	1	0	0
87	24	-	8					0	0	1	7	32	45	9	6	1	0	0
86	23	-	9						0	0	1	15	51	11	15	6	1	0	0
85	22	-	10						0	0	0	5	42	8	23	18	5	0	0	0
84	21	-	11							0	0	1	25	3	21	32	16	2	0	0	0
83	20	-	12							0	0	0	11	1	11	33	32	10	1	0	0	0
82	19	-	13								0	0	3	0	3	21	40	25	7	1	0	0	0
81	18	-	14									0	1	0	1	7	29	36	20	6	1	0	0	0
80	17	-	15									0	0	0	0	1	12	30	33	18	5	1	0	0	0
79	16	-	16										0	0	0	0	3	14	30	32	17	4	0	0	0	0	0
78	15	-	17										0		0	0	0	4	15	30	32	16	3	0	0	0	0
77	14	-	18												0	0	0	0	3	15	31	33	15	3	0	0	0
76	13	-	19														0	0	0	3	15	33	32	14	3	0	0	0
75	12	-	20														0	0	0	0	3	16	34	31	13	2	0	0	0
74	11	-	21															0	0	0	0	4	18	34	30	12	2	0	0	0
73	10	-	22																	0	0	0	5	20	37	29	8	0	0	0
72	9	-	23																		0	0	1	6	25	41	24	3	0	0	0
71	8	-	24																			0	0	1	10	35	41	12	1	0	0	0
70	7	-	25																			0	0	0	2	19	46	27	6	0	0	0
69	6	-	26																					0	0	6	33	39	17	3	0	0	0
68	5	-	27																						0	1	16	37	32	12	2	0	0
67	4	-	28																						0	0	5	22	36	26	9	1	0
66	3	-	29																							0	1	8	27	35	22	7	0
65	2	-	30																									2	10	30	36	19	3
64	1	-	31																										3	25	31	31	10
63	0	-	32																									0	0	4	20	44	31

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5	9	12	13	14	13	11	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0