Detroit Tigers Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Blue Jays 2-9, playoff odds down 0.1 to 0.1%

60-69 .465

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Royals 1 Tigers 2	+4.1		+0.3
Rangers 8 Athletics 7	+0.3
Giants 5 Angels 4	+0.3

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Royals 4 Tigers 6	+4.0		+0.3
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7	+0.3
Giants 5 Angels 0	+0.2
Rangers 1 Athletics 7	-0.2
Twins 13 White Sox 3	-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Tigers finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

92		32	-	0	100.0	%	1	6	3	73	16	0										577,397
91		31	-	1	In					100												2
90		30	-	2	In					60	40											25
89		29	-	3	99.7				2	39	60	0										387
88		28	-	4	97.8			0	1	24	73	2										3,461
87		27	-	5	92.5			0	1	14	78	7	0									24,336
86		26	-	6	81.9			0	0	7	75	18	1	0								139,695
85		25	-	7	64.4			0	0	3	62	33	3	0	0							653,340
84		24	-	8	42.4				0	1	42	47	10	1	0	0						2,564,571
83		23	-	9	21.5				0	0	21	49	25	4	0	0						8,591,165
82		22	-	10	7.5				0	0	7	36	40	14	2	0	0					24,751,351
81		21	-	11	1.6				0	0	2	17	41	31	9	1	0	0				61,852,129
80		20	-	12	0.2					0	0	4	24	39	26	7	1	0	0			134,842,556
79		19	-	13	0.0						0	0	7	27	38	22	5	0	0	0		257,617,345
78		18	-	14	0.0						0	0	1	9	29	38	19	3	0	0	0	432,828,792
77		17	-	15	0.0						0	0	0	1	11	33	38	14	2	0	0	640,973,931
76		16	-	16	Out							0	0	0	2	14	37	33	12	2	0	837,715,370
75		15	-	17	Out								0	0	0	3	20	38	29	9	1	966,677,077
74		14	-	18	Out									0	0	0	6	25	39	25	5	984,436,365
73		13	-	19	Out									0	0	0	1	10	33	41	15	883,502,129
72		12	-	20	Out										0	0	0	3	18	46	34	697,140,583
71		11	-	21	Out											0	0	0	7	38	55	482,086,808
70		10	-	22	Out											0	0	0	2	24	74	290,698,701
69		9	-	23	Out												0	0	0	13	87	151,923,204
68		8	-	24	Out													0	0	6	94	68,262,763
67		7	-	25	Out													0	0	2	98	26,082,268
66		6	-	26	Out														0	1	99	8,362,478
65		5	-	27	Out														0	0	100	2,206,773
64		4	-	28	Out															0	100	466,002
63		3	-	29	Out															0	100	75,608
62		2	-	30	Out															0	100	9,075
60	-61				Out																100	578,133	*

Total:					0.1	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	9	13	16	18	19	16	6,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Royals 1 Tigers 2	-0.7

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Royals 4 Tigers 6	-0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

92	32	-	0		0	0	5	24	36	25	8	1	0	0
91	31	-	1								100
90	30	-	2					4	8	28	40	20
89	29	-	3						2	11	29	40	18	0
88	28	-	4					0	0	3	16	39	40	2	0	0
87	27	-	5						0	0	5	27	60	4	3	1
86	26	-	6							0	1	12	69	6	8	3	0	0
85	25	-	7						0	0	0	4	60	6	16	12	1	0	0
84	24	-	8							0	0	1	42	3	19	27	7	1	0	0
83	23	-	9								0	0	21	1	14	38	21	5	0	0	0
82	22	-	10									0	7	0	6	30	35	17	4	0	0	0	0
81	21	-	11									0	2	0	1	13	31	32	17	4	1	0	0
80	20	-	12									0	0	0	0	3	14	29	31	18	5	1	0	0	0
79	19	-	13										0	0	0	0	3	12	27	32	20	6	1	0	0	0
78	18	-	14										0		0	0	0	2	10	25	32	23	7	1	0	0	0
77	17	-	15										0			0	0	0	1	8	23	34	25	8	1	0	0	0
76	16	-	16													0	0	0	0	1	7	22	36	25	8	1	0	0	0
75	15	-	17															0	0	0	1	6	23	36	25	7	1	0	0	0
74	14	-	18																0	0	0	1	8	26	37	23	5	0	0	0
73	13	-	19																	0	0	0	1	10	31	40	17	1	0	0	0
72	12	-	20																		0	0	0	2	15	41	36	6	0	0	0	0
71	11	-	21																			0	0	0	4	27	49	17	2	0	0	0
70	10	-	22																				0	0	1	11	45	33	9	1	0	0	0
69	9	-	23																				0	0	0	3	27	41	22	5	1	0	0
68	8	-	24																					0	0	0	11	33	36	17	4	0	0
67	7	-	25																						0	0	2	16	34	32	14	2	0
66	6	-	26																							0	0	4	19	35	29	11	1
65	5	-	27																								0	1	6	23	38	26	6
64	4	-	28																								0	0	1	9	30	42	18
63	3	-	29																									0	0	2	16	44	38
62	2	-	30																											0	6	34	60
61	1	-	31																												1	20	79
60	0	-	32																											0	0	8	92

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	6	8	12	14	16	16	13	5	2	0	0	0	0