Kansas City Royals Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Rays 2-3, playoff odds unchanged at 99.99%
80-49   .620

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Royals 1 Tigers 2 -1.4
-0.2
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Royals 4 Tigers 6 -1.6
-0.2
Rangers 1 Athletics 7 -0.1
Twins 13 White Sox 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Royals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
107-112In10013,403,885*
10626-6In100031,380,753
10525-7In100082,558,503
10424-8In1000182,086,237
10323-9In10000341,593,319
10222-10In10000551,016,692
10121-11In9910770,275,278
10020-12In9730939,234,670
9919-13In946001,003,553,703
9818-14In8713000942,784,471
9717-15In7624000780,632,911
9616-16In6138100570,488,323
9515-17In4453400368,154,116
9414-18In2764900209,715,249
9313-19In13671900105,267,973
9212-20100.0%5613400046,491,072
9111-21100.01485010017,998,369
9010-22100.0032652106,084,543
899-2399.90187534001,780,936
888-2499.2097741010448,160
877-2596.203694204096,728
866-2686.5152331131017,642
855-2767.603223428502,571
844-2838.21402442182285
833-298.895929334
800-320.00110293620500577,397
Total:100.0%8315100000000006,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Royals 1 Tigers 2 +0.3
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Royals 4 Tigers 6 +0.4

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
11232-01000
11131-11000
11030-2991
10929-3973
10828-4937
10727-586140
10626-675250
10525-7623800
10424-8475300
10323-93367100
10222-102077300
10121-111183700
10020-1258015000
9919-1327126200
9818-14155395000
9717-150375013000
9616-16020502730000
9515-1708404191000
9414-18022347235000
9313-190093636153000
9212-2002183630122000
9111-21005213427112000
9010-22001722342680000
899-2300182538253000
888-24000110324511100
877-250021549302200
866-26004344846300
855-27115523151230
844-2853321429151
833-2936318322612
800-320005173028154100
Total:855259210000000000000000