Kansas City Royals Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Rays 2-3, playoff odds unchanged at 99.99%
80-49   .620

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Royals 1 Tigers 2 -1.4
-0.2
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Royals 4 Tigers 6 -1.6
-0.2
Rangers 1 Athletics 7 -0.1
Twins 13 White Sox 3 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Royals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
107-112In10013,403,885*
10626-6In100031,380,753
10525-7In100082,558,503
10424-8In1000182,086,237
10323-9In10000341,593,319
10222-10In10000551,016,692
10121-11In9910770,275,278
10020-12In9730939,234,670
9919-13In946001,003,553,703
9818-14In8713000942,784,471
9717-15In7624000780,632,911
9616-16In6138100570,488,323
9515-17In4453400368,154,116
9414-18In2764900209,715,249
9313-19In13671900105,267,973
9212-20100.0%5613400046,491,072
9111-21100.01485010017,998,369
9010-22100.0032652106,084,543
899-2399.90187534001,780,936
888-2499.2097741010448,160
877-2596.203694204096,728
866-2686.5152331131017,642
855-2767.603223428502,571
844-2838.21402442182285
833-298.895929334
800-320.00110293620500577,397
Total:100.0%8315100000000006,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs