Cleveland Indians Playoff Chances 2015-3

Beat Angels 9-2, playoff odds up 0.7 to 5.3%
63-65   .492

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Indians 4 Blue Jays 11 -1.0
-0.3
Royals 1 Tigers 2 -0.1
Giants 5 Angels 4 *+0.1
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7 +0.6
+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Indians finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
9633-0In6140340577,397
9532-1In4465018
9431-2In19100701268
9330-3In7718143,152
9229-4In241821124,632
9128-599.9%02172250151,314
9027-699.601158410743,738
8926-798.20004157203,005,945
8825-894.2000266860010,179,648
8724-985.5001471140029,274,628
8623-1070.9006642820072,359,810
8522-1151.400249426000154,939,345
8421-1230.7001305117100289,269,373
8320-1314.2001447336000473,287,262
8219-144.60053145172000681,186,308
8118-151.000113423310100864,482,279
8017-160.10042542255000969,408,342
7916-170.000093239162000961,052,062
7815-180.0002143734111000842,584,608
7714-190.000031938299100652,806,372
7613-20Out0005223826810446,229,637
7512-21Out001624372571268,362,437
7411-22Out000182638234141,584,149
7310-23Out0011032411565,178,443
729-24Out000217463526,029,502
718-25Out000637578,939,388
707-26Out00123762,613,093
696-27Out001288640,554
685-28Out0595129,029
674-29Out029820,835
663-30Out1992,602
64-65Out100253*
630-33Out0100577,397
Total:5.3%000051218191712853116,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Indians 4 Blue Jays 11 +0.5
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7 -0.4

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9633-00175624200
9532-117333317
9431-21214328600
9330-306304018410
9229-40112323317400
9128-50315313115400
9027-6004173130143000
8926-70015183331122000
8825-800162138295100
8724-900017304785100
8623-100002155410135000
8522-11000546822172000
8421-1200013042233101000
8320-1300014114392661000
8219-140050528381951000
8118-1501011132341740000
8017-160000214313216400000
7916-170000031430311741000
7815-18000031328321851000
7714-19000021126332061000
7613-20000292434227100
7512-210000172435248100
7411-2200017253725500
7310-2300019304218100
729-2400021442384000
718-250004285314100
707-260011352296000
696-27004364017300
685-280117383111200
674-2906233526910
663-301826332371
652-31293233203
641-322565613
630-33004194135
Total:00000000151391213131210864311000000