Division One South & West Title Chances 2015-2016 50/50

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Premier Division			Chance will finish season at seed																								Level 9
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

North Leigh	21		7	-	0	-	1	12	23.4	%	-0.3	23.4	%	-0.3	23	15	11	9	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	5.1	-0.03	0.3	%	-0.0	2	North Leigh

Cinderford Town	17		5	-	2	-	1	10	10.9		-0.2	10.9		-0.2	11	10	9	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	7.4	-0.03	1.0		-0.0	3	Cinderford Town
Swindon	16		5	-	1	-	2	7	8.6		-0.2	8.6		-0.2	9	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	8.1	-0.02	1.5		-0.0	1	Swindon Supermarine
Taunton Town	16		5	-	1	-	2	4	8.6		-0.1	8.6		-0.1	9	8	8	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	8.1	-0.02	1.5		-0.0	6	Taunton Town
Winchester City	15		4	-	3	-	1	12	7.1		-0.1	7.1		-0.1	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	8.7	-0.02	1.9		-0.0	5	Winchester City

Shortwood United	15		5	-	0	-	3	6	7.0		+2.0	7.0		+2.0	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	8.8	+1.14	2.0		-1.5	13	Shortwood United
Tiverton Town	14		4	-	2	-	2	1	5.4		-0.1	5.4		-0.1	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	9.5	-0.02	2.7		-0.0	4	Tiverton Town
Banbury United	13		3	-	4	-	1	9	4.4		-0.1	4.4		-0.1	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	10.1	-0.01	3.4		-0.1	8	Banbury United
Larkhall Athletic	13		3	-	4	-	1	5	4.4		-0.1	4.4		-0.1	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	10.2	-0.02	3.5		-0.1	11	Larkhall Athletic
Evesham United	12		3	-	3	-	2	4	3.4		-0.1	3.4		-0.1	3	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	10.9	-0.02	4.6		-0.0	15	Evesham United
Didcot Town	11		3	-	2	-	3	4	2.6		-0.0	2.6		-0.0	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	2	11.6	-0.01	5.9		-0.1	7	Didcot Town
Yate Town	11		3	-	2	-	3	2	2.6		-0.0	2.6		-0.0	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	2	11.6	-0.01	5.9		-0.1	12	Yate Town
Bishops Cleeve	11		3	-	2	-	3	-3	2.6		-0.0	2.6		-0.0	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	2	11.7	-0.02	6.1		-0.1	9	Bishops Cleeve
Mangotsfield	11		3	-	2	-	3	-4	2.6		-0.1	2.6		-0.1	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	11.7	-0.01	6.1		-0.1	10	Mangotsfield United
Burnham	10		3	-	1	-	4	0	2.0		-0.1	2.0		-0.1	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	12.3		7.6		-0.1	14	Burnham
Marlow	8		2	-	2	-	4	-6	1.1		-0.0	1.1		-0.0	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	6	13.8		12.1		-0.2	16	Marlow
Wantage Town	7		2	-	1	-	5	5	0.9		-0.0	0.9		-0.0	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	7	14.4		14.2		-0.2	21	Wantage Town
AFC Totton	7		2	-	1	-	5	-3	0.8		-0.0	0.8		-0.0	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	7	14.4		14.6		-0.2	20	AFC Totton
Wimborne Town	7		2	-	1	-	5	-4	0.8		-0.0	0.8		-0.0	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	7	14.4		14.6		-0.2	17	Wimborne Town
Slimbridge	6		1	-	3	-	4	-8	0.6		-0.4	0.6		-0.4	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	9	15.1	-0.93	17.9		+3.7	18	Slimbridge

Bridgwater Town	4		1	-	1	-	6	-13	0.3		+0.0	0.3		+0.0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	12	14	16.4		25.7		-0.3	19	Bridgwater Town
Bashley	0		0	-	0	-	8	-40	0.1		-0.0	0.1		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	8	11	16	31	18.7	+0.01	46.8		-0.4	22	Bashley

Week of 9/19
Swindon 2 North Leigh 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	-5.7		-5.7				-0.7
Cinderford Town	+0.5		+0.5
Swindon	+2.7		+2.7		-1.2		+1.1
Taunton Town	+0.4		+0.4
Winchester City	+0.3		+0.3
Tiverton Town	+0.2		+0.2
Larkhall Athletic	+0.2		+0.2
Evesham United	+0.2		+0.2

Shortwood United 2 Slimbridge 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	-0.3		-0.3
Swindon	-0.2		-0.2
Shortwood United	+2.0		+2.0		-1.5		+1.2
Marlow					-0.2
Wantage Town					-0.2
AFC Totton					-0.2
Slimbridge	-0.4		-0.4		+3.9		-1.0
Bridgwater Town					-0.3
Bashley					-0.4

Winchester City 0 Cinderford Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	+0.5		+0.5
Cinderford Town	-0.9		-0.9				-0.2
Winchester City	-0.7		-0.7		+0.1		-0.2

Shortwood United 4 Mangotsfield 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Shortwood United	+1.4		+1.4		-2.1		+1.2
Mangotsfield	-1.2		-1.2		+1.8		-1.0

Taunton Town 2 Burnham 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	+0.2		+0.2
Taunton Town	-0.8		-0.8				-0.2
Burnham	-0.3		-0.3		+0.3		-0.2
Bashley					*-0.1

Banbury United 8 Bashley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	-0.2		-0.2
Cinderford Town	-0.2		-0.2
Shortwood United					-0.2
Banbury United	+1.3		+1.3		-2.5		+1.2
Evesham United					-0.2
Didcot Town					-0.2
Yate Town					-0.3
Bishops Cleeve					-0.2
Mangotsfield					-0.2
Burnham					-0.2
Marlow					-0.4
Wantage Town					-0.4
AFC Totton					-0.6
Wimborne Town					-0.4
Slimbridge					-0.3
Bridgwater Town					-0.4
Bashley					+6.8		-0.7

Bishops Cleeve 1 Tiverton Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	+0.2		+0.2
Cinderford Town	+0.2		+0.2
Tiverton Town	-0.6		-0.6		*+0.1		-0.2
Bishops Cleeve	-0.3		-0.3		+0.2		-0.2

Yate Town 2 Wantage Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Yate Town	+0.8		+0.8		-3.3		+1.2
Wantage Town	-0.5		-0.5		+3.5		-1.0

Wimborne Town 3 Larkhall Athletic 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	*+0.1		*+0.1
Larkhall Athletic	-0.5		-0.5		+0.1		-0.2
AFC Totton					*-0.1
Wimborne Town	-0.2		-0.2		+0.6		-0.2
Bashley					*-0.2

Marlow 2 Slimbridge 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Marlow	+0.4		+0.4		-5.3		+1.1
AFC Totton					+0.2
Wimborne Town					+0.2
Slimbridge	-0.6		-0.6		+3.5		-1.0
Bashley					+0.4

Didcot Town 1 Evesham United 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Evesham United	-0.4		-0.4		+0.2		-0.2
Didcot Town	-0.3		-0.3		+0.3		-0.2

Bridgwater Town 0 AFC Totton 5
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Totton	+0.3		+0.3		-6.0		+1.1
Bridgwater Town	-0.2		-0.2		+5.4		-0.9
Bashley					*+0.2

Week of 9/26
North Leigh vs Banbury UnitedIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	29.622.018.3		29.622.018.3		0.10.20.4		4.35.25.8
Banbury United	2.73.96.6		2.73.96.6		4.83.62.0		11.110.38.9

Wantage Town vs North LeighHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
North Leigh	18.622.029.4		18.622.029.4		0.40.20.1		5.85.24.3
Wantage Town	1.40.70.4		1.40.70.4		9.814.818.0		13.214.615.3

Taunton Town vs Cinderford TownHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Cinderford Town	7.710.014.8		7.710.014.8		1.51.10.5		8.47.66.4
Taunton Town	12.07.85.9		12.07.85.9		0.81.52.1		7.08.39.1

Cinderford Town vs AFC TottonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Cinderford Town	14.59.98.0		14.59.98.0		0.51.11.6		6.47.68.3
AFC Totton	0.40.71.3		0.40.71.3		18.515.210.1		15.414.713.3

Marlow vs SwindonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Swindon	6.17.811.7		6.17.811.7		2.21.50.8		9.18.37.0
Marlow	1.70.90.6		1.70.90.6		8.212.615.5		12.614.014.8

Swindon vs SlimbridgeHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Swindon	11.77.86.1		11.77.86.1		0.71.52.2		7.08.39.1
Slimbridge	0.30.51.0		0.30.51.0		22.418.712.8		16.015.414.0

Bashley vs Taunton TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Taunton Town	6.27.811.7		6.27.811.7		2.2*1.50.7		9.08.37.0
Bashley					38.848.453.5		17.918.919.3

Shortwood United vs Evesham UnitedHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Shortwood United	9.76.34.8		9.76.34.8		1.12.02.9		7.69.09.8
Evesham United	2.23.05.0		2.23.05.0		6.34.82.7		11.911.19.7

Winchester City vs Didcot TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Winchester City	9.96.45.0		9.96.45.0		1.02.02.8		7.68.99.7
Didcot Town	1.62.23.9		1.62.23.9		8.06.23.7		12.611.810.4

Bishops Cleeve vs Shortwood UnitedHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Shortwood United	4.96.39.7		4.96.39.7		2.92.01.0		9.89.07.6
Bishops Cleeve	3.82.21.6		3.82.21.6		3.76.38.2		10.411.912.7

Burnham vs Winchester CityHomeDrawAway
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Winchester City	5.06.49.9		5.06.49.9		2.82.01.0		9.78.97.6
Burnham	3.01.71.2		3.01.71.2		4.98.010.1		11.112.613.4

Tiverton Town vs Larkhall AthleticHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Tiverton Town	7.64.83.6		7.64.83.6		1.52.83.9		8.39.710.5
Larkhall Athletic	2.93.96.3		2.93.96.3		4.93.62.0		11.210.49.0

Yate Town vs Tiverton TownHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Tiverton Town	3.64.87.6		3.64.87.6		3.92.81.5		10.59.78.3
Yate Town	3.92.31.6		3.92.31.6		3.76.28.0		10.411.812.6

Banbury United vs Bishops CleeveHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Banbury United	6.33.92.9		6.33.92.9		2.03.64.8		8.910.311.1
Bishops Cleeve	1.62.23.8		1.62.23.8		8.26.33.7		12.711.910.4

Larkhall Athletic vs MangotsfieldHomeDrawAway
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Larkhall Athletic	6.33.92.9		6.33.92.9		2.03.64.9		9.010.411.2
Mangotsfield	1.62.23.8		1.62.23.8		8.36.43.8		12.711.910.4

Evesham United vs Wantage TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Evesham United	4.93.02.2		4.93.02.2		2.64.76.4		9.711.111.9
Wantage Town	0.50.71.3		0.50.71.3		18.114.89.7		15.314.613.2

Didcot Town vs MarlowHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Didcot Town	3.82.21.7		3.82.21.7		3.66.18.1		10.411.812.6
Marlow	0.60.91.7		0.60.91.7		15.612.68.1		14.814.012.6

Mangotsfield vs Wimborne TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Mangotsfield	3.82.21.6		3.82.21.6		3.76.38.4		10.511.912.7
Wimborne Town	0.50.71.3		0.50.71.3		18.715.310.1		15.414.713.3

Bridgwater Town vs Yate TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Yate Town	1.72.33.8		1.72.33.8		8.36.13.5		12.611.810.4
Bridgwater Town	0.50.20.1		0.50.20.1		19.226.731.3		15.416.617.3

Slimbridge vs BurnhamHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Burnham	1.21.72.9		1.21.72.9		10.47.94.7		13.412.611.1
Slimbridge	0.90.50.3		0.90.50.3		12.718.722.6		14.015.416.1

Wimborne Town vs Bridgwater TownHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
Wimborne Town	1.30.70.5		1.30.70.5		9.815.119.1		13.314.715.4
Bridgwater Town	0.20.20.5		0.20.20.5		31.626.618.9		17.316.615.4

AFC Totton vs BashleyHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Premier Division	100.0*	Level 9	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Totton	1.30.70.5		1.30.70.5		9.615.019.2		13.314.715.4
Bashley					54.148.338.3		19.318.917.9

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Division One South & West Title Chances 2015-2016 50/50

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