Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Chances 2015-2 50/50

Lost to Nationals 2-5, playoff odds unchanged at 22.7%
3-7   .300

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Nationals vs Phillies-2.4+2.4
-0.3+0.3
Blue Jays vs Braves+0.3-0.3
Mets vs Marlins-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Phillies finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
108-154In10052,974*
107104-47In1000728
106103-48In10001,622
105102-49In10003,496
104101-50In100006,702
103100-51In1000013,539
10299-52In1000025,834
10198-53In990048,135
10097-54In99100087,484
9996-55In99100153,218
9895-56In982010262,280
9794-57In963010437,930
9693-58In945010706,785
9592-59100.0%90802001,113,204
9491-60100.0851204001,706,457
9390-61100.07717150002,542,048
9289-62100.067231800003,685,747
9188-63100.056293120005,204,148
9087-6499.9423551710007,150,490
8986-6599.829379223000009,565,131
8885-6699.41736142761000012,466,353
8784-6798.18301930122000015,808,779
8683-6894.2320222920510000019,522,519
8582-6984.811122232812300000023,482,465
8481-7067.30519142923810000027,508,790
8380-7143.602146223019610000031,356,800
8279-7221.800921126291751000034,845,900
8178-738.500503142829154100037,707,660
8077-742.902015162928144100039,746,344
7976-751.001001618302713300040,807,256
7875-760.400000172031261230040,793,475
7774-770.10000002823322492039,741,973
7673-780.00000002112633216137,705,088
7572-790.0000001415313215234,839,473
7471-800.000000017223627731,369,551
7370-810.000000021333371527,502,553
7269-820.0000001624432623,477,151
7168-830.0000000215433919,516,502
7067-84Out000019385315,806,458
6966-85Out00004306512,461,341
6865-86Out000223759,566,740
6764-87Out000116837,153,308
6663-88Out00011895,206,920
6562-89Out0007933,688,519
6461-90Out004962,539,377
6360-91Out003971,706,372
6259-92Out002981,113,079
6158-93Out0199708,238
6057-94Out0199437,061
5956-95Out00100262,692
5855-96Out0100153,894
5754-97Out010087,266
5653-98Out010047,901
5552-99Out010026,160
5451-100Out010013,513
5350-101Out01006,915
3-52Out10058,902*
Total:22.7%3455566777889910632,011,240

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs