"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Chances 2015-2

Lost to Nationals 2-5, playoff odds unchanged at 8.2%
3-7   .300

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Nationals vs Phillies-1.0+1.5
-0.2+0.3
Blue Jays vs Braves+0.1-0.2
Mets vs Marlins-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Phillies finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
108-154In100157,364*
107104-47In99192
106103-48In1000227
105102-49In100553
104101-50In100001,252
103100-51In100002,645
10299-52In99105,669
10198-53In991011,602
10097-54In9820023,712
9996-55In9730146,145
9895-56In95401087,932
9794-57In926020162,682
9693-58100.0%8890300294,008
9592-59100.082130400512,933
9491-60100.075181600874,586
9390-61100.06524280001,449,985
9289-62100.054303121002,339,251
9188-6399.94235516100003,669,211
9087-6499.82938921300005,605,673
8986-6599.518371326500008,324,407
8885-6698.69321730101000012,030,011
8784-6795.942421301740000016,939,402
8683-6889.6115222626910000023,192,369
8582-6976.90820183018510000030,907,504
8481-7057.403161028271230000040,097,807
8380-7135.001114193123920000050,642,692
8279-7216.70071925312061000062,245,570
8178-736.40403132830175100074,485,411
8077-742.102004163029144000086,778,595
7976-750.701001619322712300098,416,420
7875-760.200000282333249200108,654,334
7774-770.1000000211273320610116,774,091
7673-780.000000141631311530122,185,110
7572-790.00000001722352691124,412,016
7471-800.00000002123035183123,361,191
7370-810.000000152037297119,043,364
7269-820.0000000212333915111,817,109
7168-830.00000016254425102,220,025
7067-840.0000000217443790,962,017
6966-85Out0000110404978,746,697
6865-86Out000006346066,370,892
6764-87Out00003277054,410,745
6663-88Out0001207943,401,020
6562-89Out0001148533,663,797
6461-90Out000109025,421,124
6360-91Out00079318,665,709
6259-92Out0049613,319,587
6158-93Out003979,249,123
6057-94Out02986,235,761
5956-95Out01994,095,941
5855-96Out01992,607,014
5754-97Out001001,614,722
5653-98Out00100972,065
5552-99Out0100567,381
5451-100Out0100324,612
5350-101Out0100177,239
5249-102Out010095,634
5148-103Out010049,234
5047-104Out010024,833
4946-105Out10012,165
4845-106Out01005,842
3-47Out100162,016*
Total:8.2%11223345679111315181,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Nationals vs Phillies+0.4-0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
108-154100
107104-47991
106103-48991
105102-49991
104101-50991
103100-519730
10299-529640
10198-539460
10097-5491900
9996-55871310
9895-568118100
9794-5773243000
9693-58643150000
9592-595237910000
9491-60404115300000
9390-6128412361000000
9289-62173730123100000
9188-6392833217200000000
9087-64417302815510000000
8986-65182129241241000000
8885-6603102227211131010000
8784-670131121262010304000000
8683-680013102025209282000000
8582-6900003817231871661000000
8481-70000026152114201562000000
8380-710000151317152217831000000
8279-720000141261723201251000000
8178-730000161514222316831000000
8077-74000020131018232113620000000
7976-7500010002613212319104100000
7875-76000000001381723221572100000
7774-77000000000251220242011410000
7673-780000000013917232315720000
7572-79000000000261422241893100
7471-800000000151222252010310
7370-81000000014122227211030
7269-820000000141223282181
7168-83000000015152730184
7067-840000002720322910
6966-85000000311283720
6865-860000016214132
6764-8700002133945
6663-880000173458
6562-89000042769
6461-9000022078
6360-9100011485
6259-92000990
6158-93000694
6057-9400496
5956-9500298
5855-960199
5754-970199
5653-980199
5552-990100
5451-1000100
5350-1010100
5249-1020100
5148-1030100
5047-1040100
4946-1050100
4845-1060100
4744-1070100
4643-1080100
4542-109100
4441-1100100
3-43100
Total:0001111112122233334445556678910