Washington Nationals Playoff Chances 2015-2

Beat Phillies 5-2, playoff odds unchanged at 22%
4-6   .400

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Nationals vs Phillies+1.9-2.7
+0.2-0.4
Blue Jays vs Braves+0.3-0.4
Mets vs Marlins-0.2+0.2
Giants vs Diamondbacks+0.1-0.1
Pirates vs Brewers-0.1+0.1
Cubs vs Padres+0.0-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Nationals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
108-155In100159,211*
107103-48In10002,359
106102-49In10005,173
105101-50In1000010,700
104100-51In1000021,668
10399-52In10000042,959
10298-53In9910082,634
10197-54In99100153,704
10096-55In982000279,564
9995-56In963010492,022
9894-57In945010841,948
9793-58In9170201,403,468
9692-59100.0%871003002,272,638
9591-60100.0811404003,582,695
9490-61100.07320160005,480,215
9389-62100.06326290008,171,286
9288-63100.0523131310011,846,848
9187-64100.03936617100016,709,395
9086-6599.827389223000022,916,985
8985-6699.51637142760000030,598,016
8884-6798.58311830111000039,760,329
8783-6895.732322301840000050,263,739
8682-6989.011423252692000061,883,916
8581-7076.1072118301851000074,103,410
8480-7156.703171027281330000086,412,565
8379-7234.801124183124920000098,056,439
8278-7317.000719243120610000108,307,684
8177-746.8004031328301751000116,494,371
8076-752.502014173128143000121,957,032
7975-760.9010017203226112000124,272,476
7874-770.300000292433238100123,285,168
7773-780.1000000313283218510119,083,551
7672-790.000000151732301320111,947,546
7571-800.0000001824352471102,467,604
7470-810.0000000314313416291,289,639
7369-820.00000016233727679,147,133
7268-830.00000021434371366,780,171
7167-840.0000001727432254,861,181
7066-85Out0000319443443,850,624
6965-86Out0000112414634,097,291
6864-87Out00017355825,811,284
6763-88Out00004286819,001,819
6662-89Out0002217713,615,726
6561-90Out00115849,485,744
6460-91Out00011896,432,199
6359-92Out007934,240,725
6258-93Out005952,714,391
6157-94Out003971,693,592
6056-95Out02981,023,526
5955-96Out0199604,787
5854-97Out0199346,246
5753-98Out0100192,245
5652-99Out0100104,039
5551-100Out010055,256
5450-101Out010027,936
5349-102Out010013,668
5248-103Out01006,729
4-51Out100162,851*
Total:22.0%2455677888998861,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Nationals vs Phillies-0.5+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
111-155100
110106-451000
109105-46100
108104-471000
107103-481000
106102-49991
105101-50991
104100-51982
10399-529730
10298-539640
10197-5494600
10096-5591900
9995-568613100
9894-5780181000
9793-5873243000
9692-59633160000
9591-6051371010000
9490-613941163000000
9389-6227412471000000
9288-63163631133100000
9187-648263322820000000
9086-65316292816610000000
8985-661720282413510000000
8884-670292127221241010000
8783-68003102026211130400000
8682-690013919252110292000000
8581-7000002716231981661000000
8480-710000161421152015620000000
8379-72000001412171522178310000000
8278-7300001412616232012510000000
8177-7400000161514222317831000000
8076-750000201391823211362000000
7975-7600010002613212318104100000
7874-7700000000139172322157210000
7773-78000000000251221241911410000
7672-790000000013917242214620000
7571-8000000001271523241783000
7470-810000000251322251910300
7369-8200000001513222720920
7268-830000000151324282081
7167-8400000016162729174
7066-850000002820322810
6965-8600000312293719
6864-87000016224131
6763-8800003143944
6662-89000183457
6561-90000042768
6460-9100022078
6359-920011485
6258-93000990
6157-94000694
6056-9500496
5955-9600298
5854-970199
5753-980199
5652-99199
5551-1000100
5450-1010100
5349-1020100
5248-1030100
5147-1040100
5046-1050100
4945-1060100
4-48100
Total:112222333333444444444444444443