Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2015-2

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 30.2%
5-4   .556

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cardinals vs Reds-2.5+3.5
-0.3+0.4
Cubs vs Padres-0.2+0.2
Pirates vs Brewers-0.1+0.2
Blue Jays vs Braves+0.1-0.2
Giants vs Diamondbacks+0.1-0.1
Mets vs Marlins-0.0+0.1
Nationals vs Phillies-0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
110-157In100158,628*
109104-48In10001,662
108103-49In100003,640
107102-50In100007,619
106101-51In1000015,690
105100-52In1000031,649
10499-53In1000061,760
10398-54In99000115,579
10297-55In991000212,590
10196-56In991000377,790
10095-57In982000656,222
9994-58In9630001,103,572
9893-59In9450101,811,421
9792-60In9180102,885,809
9691-61100.0%861202004,472,950
9590-62100.0801713006,747,513
9489-63100.0722214009,898,104
9388-64100.062293700014,135,998
9287-65100.0503551000019,632,883
9186-66100.03840814100026,550,644
9085-6799.9264212182000034,911,071
8984-6899.61639182250000044,721,863
8883-6998.7833232591000055,749,081
8782-7096.132427261630000067,644,953
8681-7189.9115282223910000079,894,762
8580-7277.6072616281751000091,905,002
8479-7358.803219262612300000102,908,367
8378-7437.2011541730239200000112,191,993
8277-7519.1001018243119610000119,078,206
8176-768.2005031328301641000123,088,813
8075-773.303015173128133000123,845,820
7974-781.3010017213226102000121,330,182
7873-790.500000292533227100115,731,383
7772-800.2000000313293218510107,480,394
7671-810.000000015183229132097,180,435
7570-820.000000182435247185,542,165
7469-830.0000000314313316273,305,106
7368-840.00000016233726661,166,033
7267-850.000000031434361349,649,509
7166-860.0000001727432239,241,515
7065-870.000000319443430,176,803
6964-88Out000112414622,594,614
6863-89Out00017355816,441,932
6762-90Out0003286911,660,379
6661-91Out000221778,038,780
6560-92Out000115845,392,911
6459-93Out00010893,518,220
6358-94Out0007932,230,264
6257-95Out004961,376,583
6156-96Out00397824,968
6055-97Out00298481,923
5954-98Out0199272,397
5853-99Out0199150,418
5752-100Out0010079,524
5651-101Out010042,152
5550-102Out010021,310
5449-103Out010010,258
5348-104Out01004,896
5-52Out100161,412*
Total:30.2%4685678888877641,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Cardinals vs Reds+0.5-0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
111-157100
110105-471000
109104-481000
108103-491000
107102-501000
106101-51991
105100-529910
10499-539910
10398-549820
10297-559630
10196-5695500
10095-5792800
9994-588712100
9893-598217100
9792-60742330000
9691-616430500000
9590-625337910000
9489-63404116300000
9388-642741237100000
9287-6517363013310000000
9186-668273321820000000
9085-67316292816610000000
8984-681720282413510000000
8883-6902921272212410100000
8782-700031020262211413000000
8681-710013919252111382000000
8580-7200002716232081561000000
8479-730000161422161914620000000
8378-7400000141319142116831000000
8277-7500001414615222012510000000
8176-760000171513212216831000000
8075-770000301391823211362000000
7974-78000010002613212318104100000
7873-7900000000139172322157210000
7772-800000000000251321241911410000
7671-8100000000013918242214620000
7570-820000000001271523241783000
7469-830000000025132225199300
7368-8400000001513222620920
7267-850000000151324282081
7166-8600000016152729174
7065-870000002820322810
6964-88000000312293719
6863-890000016214131
6762-9000002133945
6661-910000183358
6560-92000042669
6459-9300021979
6358-9400011386
6257-95000991
6156-96000694
6055-9700496
5954-980298
5853-990199
5752-100199
5651-1010100
5550-1020100
5449-1030100
5348-1040100
5247-1050100
5146-1060100
5-50100
Total:122333344444444444444443333322