Chicago Cubs Playoff Chances 2015-2

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 41.8%
5-3   .625

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cubs vs Padres+2.7-3.5
+0.3-0.3
Pirates vs Brewers-0.2+0.2
Blue Jays vs Braves+0.1-0.2
Giants vs Diamondbacks+0.1-0.1
Cardinals vs Reds-0.1+0.1
Mets vs Marlins-0.1+0.1
Nationals vs Phillies-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
110-157In100162,913*
109104-48In100006,679
108103-49In1000013,824
107102-50In1000027,984
106101-51In1000054,629
105100-52In10000103,190
10499-53In10000190,718
10398-54In99100344,325
10297-55In991000598,710
10196-56In9810001,016,556
10095-57In9820001,676,037
9994-58In9640002,688,085
9893-59In9460104,184,965
9792-60In9180106,345,983
9691-61100.0%861201009,361,891
9590-62100.08017120013,424,622
9489-63100.07223140018,743,743
9388-64100.062303600025,460,689
9287-65100.0513658000033,623,246
9186-66100.038418121000043,256,285
9085-6799.9264313162000054,138,967
8984-6899.71641192040000065,940,882
8883-6998.9835252381000078,208,669
8782-7096.632529241430000090,288,319
8681-7191.01163121228100000101,475,441
8580-7279.50829152616410000111,032,965
8479-7361.403249252511200000118,255,603
8378-7440.001184172922810000122,672,695
8277-7521.4001218243018610000123,885,586
8176-769.707031328291541000121,782,934
8075-774.1030151731271330000116,618,818
7974-781.7020017213225102000108,712,796
7873-790.601000210253222710098,668,192
7772-800.200000031329321851087,203,525
7671-810.100000015183229132074,999,014
7570-820.0000000182434247162,836,033
7469-830.0000000314313316351,246,617
7368-840.00000016223727640,674,992
7267-850.00000021334371331,436,151
7166-860.0000001726432323,639,707
7065-87Out0000318443517,308,559
6964-88Out000111404712,326,884
6863-89Out0001634598,546,271
6762-90Out0000327705,770,121
6661-91Out000220783,788,919
6560-92Out00114852,419,858
6459-93Out00010901,504,498
6358-94Out00793908,424
6257-95Out00496533,420
6156-96Out0397304,602
6055-97Out0298169,127
5954-98Out019991,421
5853-99Out019948,050
5752-100Out0010024,611
5651-101Out010012,161
5550-102Out01006,017
5-54Out100162,197*
Total:41.8%79117788877654321,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Cubs vs Padres-0.5+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
111-157100
110105-471000
109104-481000
108103-491000
107102-501000
106101-51991
105100-529910
10499-539910
10398-549820
10297-5597300
10196-5694500
10095-57918000
9994-588712100
9893-5981171000
9792-60742430000
9691-616430500000
9590-6252371010000
9489-63404116300000
9388-6428412371000000
9287-6517363013310000000
9186-669273321820000000
9085-67416292816610000000
8984-681720282413410000000
8883-6902102127221241010000
8782-70003102026211130300000
8681-710013919252111271000000
8580-72000028172420814510000000
8479-7300000261522161813610000000
8378-740000151420142015821000000
8277-75000001516615221911510000000
8176-7600000191513212216831000000
8075-770000401391823211362000000
7974-78000020002613212318104100000
7873-7900010000139172322157210000
7772-80000000000251220241911410000
7671-8100000000013917242215720000
7570-8200000000271523241893100
7469-830000000151322252010300
7368-840000000015122227211030
7267-850000000151324282081
7166-86000000015152730184
7065-870000002720322910
6964-8800000311283720
6863-890000015204132
6762-9000002133946
6661-910000173359
6560-9200042670
6459-9300021979
6358-940011386
6257-9500991
6156-9600594
6055-970397
5954-980298
5853-990199
5752-100199
5651-1010100
5550-1020100
5449-1030100
5348-1040100
5-52100
Total:344444455544444443333333222211