St. Louis Cardinals Playoff Chances 2015-2

Beat Brewers 4-0, playoff odds unchanged at 51%
5-3   .625

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cardinals vs Reds+2.7-3.9
+0.2-0.4
Cubs vs Padres-0.2+0.3
Pirates vs Brewers-0.2+0.3
Blue Jays vs Braves+0.1-0.2
Giants vs Diamondbacks+0.1-0.1
Nationals vs Phillies-0.1+0.1
Mets vs Marlins-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Cardinals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
112-157In100160,465*
111106-46In10003,878
110105-47In1008,181
109104-48In100016,954
108103-49In100034,338
107102-50In100066,144
106101-51In10000126,223
105100-52In10000231,892
10499-53In100000413,159
10398-54In100000716,097
10297-55In991001,205,497
10196-56In9910001,971,464
10095-57In9820003,134,066
9994-58In9640004,853,638
9893-59In9460007,292,742
9792-60In91801010,661,469
9691-61100.0%8612010015,159,551
9590-62100.08017120020,971,194
9489-63100.072231300028,227,556
9388-64100.063303400036,966,290
9287-65100.0513757000047,091,314
9186-66100.03942910100058,400,404
9085-6799.9274514131000070,462,398
8984-6899.7164320173000082,738,710
8883-6999.1936272171000094,595,379
8782-7097.1427322213300000105,288,219
8681-7191.91173420207100000114,058,095
8580-7281.10933152515400000120,314,871
8479-7363.604288242410200000123,571,410
8378-7442.4012141728217100000123,547,291
8277-7523.4001418232918510000120,269,857
8176-7611.1008031328291541000114,003,173
8075-774.904015173027123000105,221,330
7974-782.102001721322510200094,560,575
7873-790.901000210253222710082,749,958
7772-800.300000031329321851070,470,974
7671-810.10000015183229132058,458,708
7570-820.0000000182434247147,205,759
7469-830.0000000314313316337,111,718
7368-840.00000016223727628,405,519
7267-850.00000021334371321,155,544
7166-860.0000001726432315,349,996
7065-87Out0000318443510,835,025
6964-88Out000011140477,436,047
6863-89Out0001634594,978,599
6762-90Out0000327693,233,658
6661-91Out000220782,046,300
6560-92Out00115841,259,011
6459-93Out0001089755,109
6358-94Out00793439,969
6257-95Out00495248,852
6156-96Out0397137,218
6055-97Out029873,649
5954-98Out019938,125
5853-99Out19919,156
5752-100Out01009,715
5651-101Out01004,562
5550-102Out01002,104
5449-103Out0100976
5-53Out100158,045*
Total:51.0%1012147777766543211,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Cardinals vs Reds-0.5+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
114-157100
113108-441000
112107-45100
111106-461000
110105-471000
109104-481000
108103-491000
107102-501000
106101-5110000
105100-529910
10499-539910
10398-549820
10297-5597300
10196-5695500
10095-57928000
9994-588812100
9893-598217100
9792-6074233000
9691-616430500000
9590-6253379100000
9489-634041163000000
9388-6428412371000000
9287-6517363013300000000
9186-669273321820000000
9085-67416292816510000000
8984-68172029241341000000
8883-6902102127221241010000
8782-700031021262111303000000
8681-7100131019252111271000000
8580-7200002817242081351000000
8479-730000261523171713510000000
8378-7400000151521131915721000000
8277-750000151751521191141000000
8176-76000001101513212216831000000
8075-7700005013918232013620000000
7974-780000200026132123181041000000
7873-7900010000139172322157210000
7772-80000000000251220241911410000
7671-810000000013917232215620000
7570-8200000001271523241893100
7469-8300000000251322252010300
7368-84000000015122227211030
7267-850000000151324282081
7166-8600000015152729174
7065-870000002720322810
6964-8800000312283720
6863-890000016214132
6762-9000002133946
6661-91000173359
6560-9200042670
6459-9300021979
6358-940011386
6257-9500991
6156-9600694
6055-970496
5954-980298
5853-990199
5752-100199
5651-101199
5550-1020100
5449-103199
5-53100
Total:455555555544443333332222211111