Boston Red Sox Playoff Chances 2015-2

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 45%
6-3   .667

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Sox vs Orioles+2.8-3.7
+0.3-0.3
Blue Jays vs Braves-0.3+0.5
Rays vs Yankees-0.1+0.2
Royals vs Athletics-0.1+0.1
Twins vs Indians+0.1-0.1
Tigers vs White Sox-0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Sox finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
112-158In100159,527*
111105-47In10002,799
110104-48In10006,052
109103-49In100012,535
108102-50In1000025,374
107101-51In100049,629
106100-52In1000094,901
10599-53In10000175,947
10498-54In9910317,253
10397-55In99100555,652
10296-56In98200946,806
10195-57In9730001,565,740
10094-58In9550002,519,617
9993-59In9270003,945,897
9892-60In89100005,999,652
9791-61100.0%841501008,891,739
9690-62100.07820010012,801,876
9589-63100.071261200017,920,817
9488-64100.062332400024,438,965
9387-65100.051393600032,427,596
9286-66100.040456910041,852,647
9185-67100.029489131000052,593,568
9084-6899.8194713173000064,319,543
8983-6999.51142182271000076,562,016
8882-7098.35342224122000088,719,689
8781-7195.2224252420400000100,077,790
8680-7288.211424212810100000109,909,816
8579-7375.00721153220510000117,499,714
8478-7455.503168282912200000122,319,749
8377-7533.8011131933248100000123,965,573
8276-7616.200619263219610000122,353,580
8175-776.103031430301541000117,536,284
8074-782.001015183127123000109,937,863
7973-790.6000018223225102000100,130,876
7872-800.200000210253222810088,804,788
7771-810.000000031328311851076,679,672
7670-820.00000015173129133064,422,146
7569-830.000000182334258152,728,090
7468-840.0000000313303417341,975,866
7367-850.00000016213628832,549,318
7266-860.000000021232381524,561,840
7165-87Out00001624432618,048,459
7064-88Out0000316433812,901,183
6963-89Out000011039508,974,356
6862-90Out0000532626,074,643
6761-91Out0000325723,999,847
6660-92Out000118812,562,821
6559-93Out00113871,598,010
6458-94Out000991969,352
6357-95Out00694570,509
6256-96Out00496327,275
6155-97Out00298182,875
6054-98Out019999,042
5953-99Out019952,036
5852-100Out19926,463
5751-101Out010013,212
5650-102Out01006,400
5549-103Out01003,045
6-54Out100159,790*
Total:45.0%712981098776544321,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Red Sox vs Orioles-0.5+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
113-158100
112106-461000
111105-471000
110104-481000
109103-491000
108102-501000
107101-511000
106100-52991
10599-539910
10498-549910
10397-5598200
10296-5696300
10195-57945000
10094-58928000
9993-598712100
9892-6081171000
9791-61742430000
9690-626430500000
9589-635237101000000
9488-644041163000000
9387-6527412471000000
9286-6617363013310000000
9185-678273321820000000
9084-68316292816610000000
8983-6917202824134100100000
8882-70021021272212410200000
8781-71003102026211130400000
8680-7200139192420102102000000
8579-7300002816221971761000000
8478-740000261420142115620000000
8377-750000141217162217831000000
8276-7600001412617232012510000000
8175-770000151614222316831000000
8074-7800002014101924211362000000
7973-7900010002614212318104100000
7872-8000000000139172322157200000
7771-81000000000261321241910410000
7670-820000000014918242214620000
7569-83000000001271523241782000
7468-84000000026132225199300
7367-85000000001513232620920
7266-860000000151424281971
7165-8700000016162829164
7064-8800000282132279
6963-8900001313293618
6862-90000016224130
6761-9100003144043
6660-920000183556
6559-93000042867
6458-9400022177
6357-950011584
6256-960001089
6155-9700793
6054-980495
5953-990397
5852-1000298
5751-1010199
5650-102199
5549-1030100
5448-1040100
5347-1050100
6-52100
Total:445555554454444433333322221111