Baltimore Orioles Playoff Chances 2015-2

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 32%
5-4   .556

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Sox vs Orioles-2.5+3.5
-0.3+0.4
Blue Jays vs Braves-0.3+0.4
Rays vs Yankees-0.1+0.1
Royals vs Athletics-0.1+0.1
Twins vs Indians+0.1-0.1
Tigers vs White Sox-0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Orioles finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
110-157In100159,451*
109104-48In10002,658
108103-49In10005,842
107102-50In100012,232
106101-51In1000024,738
105100-52In1000048,566
10499-53In991092,571
10398-54In991000171,840
10297-55In98200310,527
10196-56In973000540,055
10095-57In955000924,441
9994-58In9370001,527,772
9893-59In89100102,458,037
9792-60100.0%851401003,852,142
9691-61100.0791902005,868,038
9590-62100.0712513008,699,676
9489-63100.062312500012,534,280
9388-64100.0523738000017,581,862
9287-65100.04043511100023,997,531
9186-6699.92946815200031,874,126
9085-6799.8194512204000041,215,745
8984-6899.31140162481000051,851,378
8883-6998.05322027142000063,498,395
8782-7094.522222262250000075,709,127
8681-7186.91132122301120000087,857,808
8580-7273.00718153321510000099,298,775
8479-7353.103148293113300000109,251,165
8378-7431.601931933259100000117,019,053
8277-7514.700519263320610000122,057,996
8176-765.3002031430301641000123,922,570
8075-771.601015183128133000122,531,015
7974-780.4000017223225102000117,926,443
7873-790.1000002102532228100110,551,230
7772-800.0000000313283118510100,870,878
7671-810.00000015183129133089,629,759
7570-820.0000000282334248177,517,851
7469-830.0000000313303317365,263,186
7368-840.000000016223628753,505,593
7267-850.000000021333371542,681,552
7166-86Out00001625432533,149,719
7065-87Out00000317433725,061,673
6964-88Out0000110394918,431,055
6863-89Out00006336113,196,529
6762-90Out0000325729,185,654
6661-91Out000119806,220,368
6560-92Out00113864,102,294
6459-93Out0009912,628,647
6358-94Out006941,638,001
6257-95Out00496995,243
6156-96Out00298586,100
6055-97Out0199335,800
5954-98Out0199186,198
5853-99Out0100101,422
5752-100Out010053,573
5651-101Out010027,006
5550-102Out010013,705
5449-103Out01006,538
5348-104Out01002,987
5-52Out100159,704*
Total:32.0%4766899887766541,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Red Sox vs Orioles+0.5-0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
111-157100
110105-471000
109104-481000
108103-491000
107102-501000
106101-51991
105100-52991
10499-539910
10398-549820
10297-5597300
10196-5695500
10095-5792800
9994-588812100
9893-5982171000
9792-60742330000
9691-61643050000
9590-6253369100000
9489-634041163000000
9388-6428412371000000
9287-6517363013310000000
9186-669273321820000000
9085-67416292816610000000
8984-681720282413410010000
8883-6902102127221141020000
8782-700031020262111305100000
8681-7100139182420102112000000
8580-7200002716221871971000000
8479-7300000151319142216620000000
8378-740000141115162317831000000
8277-7500000141061723201251000000
8176-760000151614222317831000000
8075-7700001013101824211362000000
7974-78000000002613212318104100000
7873-79000000001391723221572000000
7772-80000000000261321241911410000
7671-810000000013918242214620000
7570-82000000001271523241783000
7469-830000000025132225199300
7368-84000000001513222620920
7267-850000000151324282071
7166-8600000016162829164
7065-8700000282133279
6964-8800001312293618
6863-89000016224130
6762-9000003144043
6661-91000183556
6560-92000042868
6459-9300022177
6358-9400011584
6257-95001090
6156-96000793
6055-9700496
5954-980397
5853-990298
5752-100199
5651-101199
5550-1020100
5449-1030100
5348-1040100
5-52100
Total:233334444344444444444333333221