Toronto Blue Jays Playoff Chances 2015-2

Lost to Rays 2-4, playoff odds unchanged at 42.2%
5-5   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jays vs Braves+2.4-3.3
+0.2-0.3
Rays vs Yankees-0.1+0.1
Royals vs Athletics-0.1+0.1
Twins vs Indians+0.1-0.1
Red Sox vs Orioles-0.0+0.1
Tigers vs White Sox-0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jays finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
111-156In100160,377*
110105-46In10003,884
109104-47In10008,178
108103-48In1000017,087
107102-49In100033,847
106101-50In1000066,378
105100-51In10000125,662
10499-52In99100231,986
10398-53In99100414,059
10297-54In98200718,297
10196-55In9730001,210,735
10095-56In9550001,984,881
9994-57In9370003,157,784
9893-58100.0%891001004,888,899
9792-59100.0841401007,355,752
9691-60100.07819020010,762,732
9590-61100.071251300015,316,387
9489-62100.062322400021,185,153
9388-63100.051383700028,529,666
9287-64100.04044510100037,353,990
9186-6599.92947814200047,597,161
9085-6699.81946131930000059,000,915
8984-6799.41142172371000071,158,901
8883-6898.25342125132000083,525,666
8782-6995.022424252150000095,437,049
8681-7087.911423212810200000106,094,263
8580-7174.607201532205100000114,840,361
8479-7255.103158293013200000120,987,357
8378-7333.5011031933248100000124,080,095
8277-7416.000619263219610000123,873,305
8176-756.003031530301541000120,378,871
8075-761.9010151932271230000113,879,949
7974-770.6000018223224102000104,883,254
7873-780.200000210253221710094,008,252
7772-790.000000031428311851082,055,966
7671-800.00000015183129133069,709,656
7570-810.0000000282334248157,652,605
7469-820.00000000313303317346,412,455
7368-830.00000016213628736,368,078
7267-840.000000021233381527,721,266
7166-85Out00001625432520,575,028
7065-86Out00000317433714,864,341
6964-87Out0000110395010,445,817
6863-88Out0000532627,141,014
6762-89Out0000325724,752,897
6661-90Out000118803,076,107
6560-91Out000113861,936,293
6459-92Out0009911,184,667
6358-93Out00694704,688
6257-94Out00496407,780
6156-95Out0298230,549
6055-96Out0199126,066
5954-97Out019966,464
5853-98Out010034,625
5752-99Out010017,350
5651-100Out01008,615
5550-101Out01003,944
5449-102Out01001,939
5-53Out100158,777*
Total:42.2%61187998876554321,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Blue Jays vs Braves-0.5+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
114-156100
113108-431000
112107-441000
111106-451000
110105-461000
109104-471000
108103-481000
107102-491000
106101-50991
105100-51991
10499-529910
10398-539820
10297-5497300
10196-5595500
10095-5692800
9994-578712100
9893-58821710000
9792-59742330000
9691-606430500000
9590-6153371010000000
9489-624041163000000
9388-6328412371000000
9287-6417363013310000000
9186-659273321820000000
9085-664162928166100000000
8984-671720282413410010000
8883-68021021272212410200000
8782-69003102026211130400000
8681-7000139192420102102000000
8580-7100002816221971761000000
8479-7200000161420142116620000000
8378-7300000141216162217831000000
8277-740000141161723201251000000
8176-750000151614222317831000000
8075-7600002014101824211362000000
7974-77000010002613212318104100000
7873-7800000000139172322157200000
7772-790000000000261321241911410000
7671-8000000000013918242214620000
7570-81000000001271523241783000
7469-820000000025132225199300
7368-8300000001513222620920
7267-8400000000151324282081
7166-850000016162729174
7065-86000002820322810
6964-8700001312293718
6863-880000016224130
6762-89000003143943
6661-90000183456
6560-91000042868
6459-920022177
6358-930011584
6257-940001090
6156-9500793
6055-9600496
5954-970397
5853-980298
5752-990199
5651-1000100
5550-1010100
5449-1020100
5348-103100
5247-1040100
5-51100
Total:344555544454444443333332222111