Toronto Blue Jays Playoff Chances 2015-2

Lost to Rays 2-4, playoff odds unchanged at 42.2%
5-5   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blue Jays vs Braves+2.4-3.3
+0.2-0.3
Rays vs Yankees-0.1+0.1
Royals vs Athletics-0.1+0.1
Twins vs Indians+0.1-0.1
Red Sox vs Orioles-0.0+0.1
Tigers vs White Sox-0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jays finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
111-156In100160,377*
110105-46In10003,884
109104-47In10008,178
108103-48In1000017,087
107102-49In100033,847
106101-50In1000066,378
105100-51In10000125,662
10499-52In99100231,986
10398-53In99100414,059
10297-54In98200718,297
10196-55In9730001,210,735
10095-56In9550001,984,881
9994-57In9370003,157,784
9893-58100.0%891001004,888,899
9792-59100.0841401007,355,752
9691-60100.07819020010,762,732
9590-61100.071251300015,316,387
9489-62100.062322400021,185,153
9388-63100.051383700028,529,666
9287-64100.04044510100037,353,990
9186-6599.92947814200047,597,161
9085-6699.81946131930000059,000,915
8984-6799.41142172371000071,158,901
8883-6898.25342125132000083,525,666
8782-6995.022424252150000095,437,049
8681-7087.911423212810200000106,094,263
8580-7174.607201532205100000114,840,361
8479-7255.103158293013200000120,987,357
8378-7333.5011031933248100000124,080,095
8277-7416.000619263219610000123,873,305
8176-756.003031530301541000120,378,871
8075-761.9010151932271230000113,879,949
7974-770.6000018223224102000104,883,254
7873-780.200000210253221710094,008,252
7772-790.000000031428311851082,055,966
7671-800.00000015183129133069,709,656
7570-810.0000000282334248157,652,605
7469-820.00000000313303317346,412,455
7368-830.00000016213628736,368,078
7267-840.000000021233381527,721,266
7166-85Out00001625432520,575,028
7065-86Out00000317433714,864,341
6964-87Out0000110395010,445,817
6863-88Out0000532627,141,014
6762-89Out0000325724,752,897
6661-90Out000118803,076,107
6560-91Out000113861,936,293
6459-92Out0009911,184,667
6358-93Out00694704,688
6257-94Out00496407,780
6156-95Out0298230,549
6055-96Out0199126,066
5954-97Out019966,464
5853-98Out010034,625
5752-99Out010017,350
5651-100Out01008,615
5550-101Out01003,944
5449-102Out01001,939
5-53Out100158,777*
Total:42.2%61187998876554321,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs