Minnesota Twins Playoff Chances 2015-2

Beat Royals 8-5, playoff odds unchanged at 7.7%

3-6 .333

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Twins vs Indians	+1.0-1.3		+0.2-0.3
Blue Jays vs Braves	-0.1+0.1
Royals vs Athletics	-0.1+0.1
Tigers vs White Sox	-0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Twins finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

107	-155				In		100															157,517	*
106		103	-	49	In		99			1												338
105		102	-	50	In		99	0		1												733
104		101	-	51	In		99			1												1,674
103		100	-	52	In		99	0		1												3,609
102		99	-	53	In		98	0		2	0											7,385
101		98	-	54	In		98	0		2	0											15,396
100		97	-	55	In		96	1	0	3	0											30,283
99		96	-	56	In		95	1	0	4	0											59,039
98		95	-	57	In		92	2	0	6	0											111,409
97		94	-	58	100.0	%	88	3	0	8	0	0										202,914
96		93	-	59	100.0		83	5	0	11	0	0										360,066
95		92	-	60	100.0		77	7	0	15	1	0	0									623,853
94		91	-	61	100.0		68	10	0	21	1	0	0									1,050,204
93		90	-	62	100.0		57	14	1	27	2	0	0									1,720,645
92		89	-	63	99.9		46	17	1	33	3	0	0	0								2,745,536
91		88	-	64	99.9		34	19	2	40	6	0	0	0								4,261,721
90		87	-	65	99.6		22	20	3	45	9	0	0	0	0							6,428,823
89		86	-	66	98.9		13	18	5	48	15	1	0	0	0	0						9,451,766
88		85	-	67	97.2		6	15	6	47	23	3	0	0	0	0						13,523,641
87		84	-	68	92.8		2	10	7	41	33	6	1	0	0	0	0					18,825,969
86		83	-	69	83.9		1	6	6	31	40	14	2	0	0	0	0	0				25,518,559
85		82	-	70	68.4		0	2	5	20	41	24	6	1	0	0	0	0	0			33,673,470
84		81	-	71	47.4		0	1	3	10	33	34	15	3	0	0	0	0	0			43,249,658
83		80	-	72	26.0		0	0	2	4	20	36	27	10	2	0	0	0	0	0		54,087,999
82		79	-	73	10.6		0	0	1	1	9	26	34	21	7	1	0	0	0	0		65,902,846
81		78	-	74	3.1			0	0	0	3	13	29	31	17	5	1	0	0	0		78,129,542
80		77	-	75	0.6			0	0	0	0	4	17	31	29	14	4	0	0	0	0	90,214,097
79		76	-	76	0.1			0	0	0	0	1	6	20	32	26	12	3	0	0	0	101,404,338
78		75	-	77	0.0			0	0	0	0	0	2	9	23	32	24	9	2	0	0	111,002,589
77		74	-	78	0.0				0	0	0	0	0	3	12	27	32	20	6	1	0	118,302,712
76		73	-	79	0.0				0	0	0	0	0	1	4	16	30	30	15	3	0	122,757,125
75		72	-	80	0.0				0	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	21	34	27	10	1	124,036,832
74		71	-	81	0.0				0		0	0	0	0	0	2	11	28	35	19	4	122,007,944
73		70	-	82	0.0				0		0	0	0	0	0	1	5	19	36	31	9	116,842,857
72		69	-	83	Out								0	0	0	0	2	10	31	40	17	108,918,464
71		68	-	84	Out								0	0	0	0	1	5	22	44	29	98,857,117
70		67	-	85	Out									0	0	0	0	2	14	42	41	87,302,343
69		66	-	86	Out										0	0	0	1	8	37	54	75,078,774
68		65	-	87	Out										0	0	0	0	4	30	66	62,837,707
67		64	-	88	Out											0	0	0	2	22	76	51,185,102
66		63	-	89	Out											0	0	0	1	16	83	40,546,706
65		62	-	90	Out												0	0	0	11	89	31,264,029
64		61	-	91	Out											0	0	0	0	7	93	23,459,400
63		60	-	92	Out													0	0	4	96	17,114,983
62		59	-	93	Out													0	0	3	97	12,134,838
61		58	-	94	Out													0	0	2	98	8,370,822
60		57	-	95	Out													0	0	1	99	5,619,181
59		56	-	96	Out														0	1	99	3,664,391
58		55	-	97	Out														0	0	100	2,323,109
57		54	-	98	Out														0	0	100	1,429,741
56		53	-	99	Out														0	0	100	855,498
55		52	-	100	Out															0	100	496,319
54		51	-	101	Out															0	100	280,472
53		50	-	102	Out															0	100	153,798
52		49	-	103	Out															0	100	82,187
51		48	-	104	Out															0	100	42,555
50		47	-	105	Out																100	21,203
49		46	-	106	Out															0	100	10,259
3	-48				Out																100	166,033	*

Total:					7.7	%	1	1	1	2	4	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	12	14	19	1,898,928,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Twins vs Indians	-0.5+0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

108	-155				100
107		104	-	48	99	1
106		103	-	49	99	1
105		102	-	50	98	2
104		101	-	51	98	2
103		100	-	52	98	2
102		99	-	53	97	3	0
101		98	-	54	96	4	0
100		97	-	55	93	7	0	0
99		96	-	56	89	10	0	0
98		95	-	57	84	15	1	0	0
97		94	-	58	77	21	2	0	0						0
96		93	-	59	68	27	4	0	0	0					0
95		92	-	60	57	34	8	1	0	0	0				0
94		91	-	61	44	39	14	3	0	0	0	0			0
93		90	-	62	31	41	21	6	1	0	0	0			0	0
92		89	-	63	19	37	29	12	3	0	0	0	0		0	0	0
91		88	-	64	10	28	33	20	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
90		87	-	65	4	18	30	27	15	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
89		86	-	66	1	8	21	29	23	12	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
88		85	-	67	0	3	10	22	27	21	10	3	1	0	3	0	0	0	0
87		84	-	68	0	1	3	11	21	25	20	10	3	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
86		83	-	69	0	0	1	3	10	19	23	18	9	2	13	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
85		82	-	70	0	0	0	0	2	8	16	20	16	6	22	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
84		81	-	71		0	0	0	0	1	5	12	17	11	25	18	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
83		80	-	72			0	0	0	0	1	4	10	12	18	25	19	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
82		79	-	73			0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	7	18	25	21	12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
81		78	-	74				0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	6	14	23	24	17	9	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
80		77	-	75						0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	10	18	24	21	14	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
79		76	-	76							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	24	19	10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
78		75	-	77							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	8	17	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
77		74	-	78								0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0	0	0
76		73	-	79								0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	9	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0	0
75		72	-	80									0	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
74		71	-	81										0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	13	22	25	20	10	3	1	0
73		70	-	82										0						0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	12	22	27	21	10	3	0
72		69	-	83																	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	13	24	28	21	8	1
71		68	-	84																			0	0	0	0	0	1	5	15	27	30	18	4
70		67	-	85																				0	0	0	0	0	2	7	20	32	29	10
69		66	-	86																					0	0	0	0	0	3	11	28	37	20
68		65	-	87																					0	0	0	0	0	1	6	21	41	32
67		64	-	88																							0	0	0	0	2	13	39	45
66		63	-	89																							0	0	0	0	1	7	34	58
65		62	-	90																								0	0	0	0	4	27	69
64		61	-	91																								0	0	0	0	2	20	78
63		60	-	92																									0	0	0	1	14	85
62		59	-	93																										0	0	0	9	90
61		58	-	94																											0	0	6	94
60		57	-	95																											0	0	4	96
59		56	-	96																											0	0	2	98
58		55	-	97																												0	1	99
57		54	-	98																												0	1	99
56		53	-	99																												0	1	99
55		52	-	100																												0	0	100
54		51	-	101																													0	100
53		50	-	102																													0	100
52		49	-	103																													0	100
51		48	-	104																													0	100
50		47	-	105																													0	100
49		46	-	106																													0	100
48		45	-	107																													0	100
46	-47																																	100
45		42	-	110																													0	100
44		41	-	111																													1	99
3	-43																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	10