San Diego Padres Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Tied with Rockies 0-0 (Bot 5th), playoff odds down 0.08 to 4.1%

56-62 .475

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Padres 5 Tigers 1	+2.3		+0.3
Diamondbacks 6 Dodgers 8	-0.2

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Padres 5 Rockies 4	+2.8		+0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Padres finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

100		44	-	0	In		100															100
93		37	-	7	In		67			33												3
92		36	-	8	In		100															13
91		35	-	9	In		73	22	2	4												51
90		34	-	10	In		48	27	6	19												145
89		33	-	11	In		32	31	6	30	1											511
88		32	-	12	99.7	%	16	27	11	40	6	0										1,469
87		31	-	13	98.3		5	18	14	46	16	2	0									3,586
86		30	-	14	92.5		1	8	13	40	31	7	1	0								7,967
85		29	-	15	74.5		0	2	8	22	41	21	4	0	0							15,813
84		28	-	16	44.1			0	4	8	31	36	16	3	0	0						28,765
83		27	-	17	17.8			0	1	2	15	34	33	13	2	0						47,168
82		26	-	18	4.5				0	0	4	19	36	29	10	1	0					70,894
81		25	-	19	0.7				0	0	1	6	23	38	26	6	0	0				96,612
80		24	-	20	0.1				0	0	0	1	9	29	39	20	3	0				120,703
79		23	-	21	0.0				0		0	0	2	14	36	36	11	1	0			138,118
78		22	-	22	Out							0	0	4	22	44	26	4	0	0		143,903
77		21	-	23	Out								0	1	9	36	41	12	1	0		137,611
76		20	-	24	Out									0	2	20	45	27	6	0	0	120,702
75		19	-	25	Out									0	0	8	35	38	16	2	0	96,325
74		18	-	26	Out										0	2	20	40	30	8	0	70,611
73		17	-	27	Out										0	0	8	30	41	20	1	46,878
72		16	-	28	Out											0	2	17	41	36	4	28,333
71		15	-	29	Out											0	0	7	32	51	11	15,884
70		14	-	30	Out												0	2	18	57	23	7,864
69		13	-	31	Out												0	0	9	50	40	3,695
68		12	-	32	Out													0	3	41	55	1,397
67		11	-	33	Out														1	24	76	520
66		10	-	34	Out														1	21	78	194
65		9	-	35	Out															4	96	46
64		8	-	36	Out															6	94	17
56	-63				Out																100	102	*

Total:					4.1	%	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	10	15	19	18	12	7	4	1	1,206,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Padres 5 Tigers 1	-0.7

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Padres 5 Rockies 4	-0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

100		44	-	0	97	3
93		37	-	7		100
92		36	-	8	15	46	31	8
91		35	-	9	4	18	49	24	6
90		34	-	10	1	11	25	30	24	8	1
89		33	-	11	0	3	11	27	34	17	6	1	1
88		32	-	12		0	3	13	23	30	21	7	2	0	0
87		31	-	13		0	0	3	10	24	28	22	10	2	2	0	0
86		30	-	14			0	0	1	7	19	31	25	8	5	2	0	0
85		29	-	15				0	0	1	5	17	31	20	12	9	4	1	0	0	0
84		28	-	16						0	0	4	16	23	10	19	17	7	2	0	0
83		27	-	17							0	0	4	13	3	13	25	23	13	4	1	0
82		26	-	18								0	0	4	0	3	12	24	27	18	8	2	0	0
81		25	-	19									0	1	0	0	2	9	20	28	24	12	4	1	0	0
80		24	-	20									0	0		0	0	1	5	15	26	28	17	7	1	0	0
79		23	-	21										0		0	0	0	0	3	11	23	29	22	9	2	0	0	0
78		22	-	22														0	0	0	2	7	20	29	25	13	4	1	0	0
77		21	-	23															0	0	0	1	6	17	28	27	15	5	1	0	0
76		20	-	24																		0	1	4	15	27	29	17	6	1	0	0
75		19	-	25																			0	1	4	13	27	29	19	6	1	0	0
74		18	-	26																			0	0	1	4	13	26	31	19	6	1	0
73		17	-	27																					0	0	3	13	28	32	18	5	0	0
72		16	-	28																						0	0	4	14	31	32	15	3	0
71		15	-	29																							0	1	5	18	35	31	10	1
70		14	-	30																								0	1	7	25	39	24	5
69		13	-	31																									0	2	13	35	37	13
68		12	-	32																										1	5	21	47	26
67		11	-	33																											1	12	38	49
66		10	-	34																											1	7	30	62
65		9	-	35																												2	20	78
64		8	-	36																												6	6	88
63		7	-	37																													100
56	-62																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	8	9	9	9	8	7	5	4	3	1	1	0