Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Plays at Angels, playoff odds up 0.003 to 0.3%

53-67 .442

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Phillies 4 Marlins 3	+2.9		+0.3

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Phillies 6 Braves 9	-3.0		-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Phillies finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

95		42	-	0	In		97	3														100
89		36	-	6	In			100														2
88		35	-	7	In		57	14	29													7
87		34	-	8	In			17	46	29	9											35
86		33	-	9	95.8	%	2	15	43	20	15	4										118
85		32	-	10	87.2			5	40	21	21	11	2									382
84		31	-	11	67.5		0	1	29	9	29	24	7	1								1,196
83		30	-	12	34.4			0	14	3	18	32	26	7	1	0						3,080
82		29	-	13	10.8				5	0	5	24	37	22	6	1	0					7,026
81		28	-	14	2.0				1	0	1	8	28	36	21	5	0	0				14,445
80		27	-	15	0.3				0		0	1	11	31	35	18	3	0				26,762
79		26	-	16	0.0				0			0	2	14	34	34	14	2	0			45,534
78		25	-	17	0.0				0			0	0	4	19	38	30	9	0	0		70,341
77		24	-	18	Out								0	1	6	25	41	24	3	0		97,029
76		23	-	19	Out									0	1	11	36	40	10	1	0	122,716
75		22	-	20	Out									0	0	3	22	48	23	3	0	140,428
74		21	-	21	Out										0	1	10	43	37	9	0	147,491
73		20	-	22	Out										0	0	3	30	46	20	1	141,150
72		19	-	23	Out											0	1	17	46	34	2	122,448
71		18	-	24	Out												0	8	38	48	6	96,886
70		17	-	25	Out												0	3	26	58	13	69,608
69		16	-	26	Out												0	1	16	60	23	45,710
68		15	-	27	Out													0	8	56	36	27,185
67		14	-	28	Out													0	3	46	51	14,439
66		13	-	29	Out													0	1	35	64	6,977
65		12	-	30	Out														0	24	76	3,096
64		11	-	31	Out															16	84	1,141
63		10	-	32	Out															8	92	402
62		9	-	33	Out															7	93	117
53	-61				Out																100	149	*

Total:					0.3	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	14	24	24	19	5	1,206,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phillies 4 Marlins 3	-0.7

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phillies 6 Braves 9	+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95		42	-	0	57	43
89		36	-	6					50		50
88		35	-	7		14		57		14	14
87		34	-	8					9	20	29	29	14
86		33	-	9					1	8	17	42	20	8	4
85		32	-	10						2	9	26	34	16	6	5	1	1
84		31	-	11					0	0	1	6	25	35	7	11	10	4	1	0
83		30	-	12								1	8	26	3	12	20	19	9	3	1	0
82		29	-	13								0	1	10	0	3	12	24	24	17	6	2	0	0
81		28	-	14									0	2	0	0	2	9	20	27	23	12	4	1	0
80		27	-	15										0		0	0	1	5	15	25	27	18	7	2	0	0
79		26	-	16										0				0	0	2	9	21	28	23	12	4	1	0	0
78		25	-	17										0				0	0	0	1	6	17	27	26	15	5	1	0	0
77		24	-	18																0	0	1	4	14	26	28	19	7	1	0	0
76		23	-	19																	0	0	0	3	12	25	31	21	7	1	0	0
75		22	-	20																		0	0	0	3	11	26	32	21	6	1	0
74		21	-	21																				0	0	3	12	28	33	19	5	0	0	0
73		20	-	22																				0	0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0
72		19	-	23																					0	0	1	5	20	35	29	10	1	0
71		18	-	24																						0	0	1	8	25	37	23	5	0
70		17	-	25																							0	0	2	13	32	36	15	2
69		16	-	26																								0	0	5	21	39	29	6
68		15	-	27																									0	1	9	32	41	16
67		14	-	28																									0	0	3	20	45	31
66		13	-	29																										0	1	10	40	49
65		12	-	30																											0	4	30	65
64		11	-	31																											0	2	20	78
63		10	-	32																												0	11	89
62		9	-	33																												1	7	92
53	-61																																	100

Total:					0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	14	13	11	8	4	2