New York Mets Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Beating Nationals 1-0 (Top 5th), playoff odds down 0.1 to 4.6%

57-63 .475

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Angels 14 Mets 2	-2.6		-0.3

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Diamondbacks 3 Mets 7	+2.6		+0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

92	-99				In		100															102	*
91		34	-	8	In		50	43	7													28
90		33	-	9	In		35	50	12	2												130
89		32	-	10	In		19	51	23	6	0											397
88		31	-	11	99.8	%	10	37	38	14	2	0										1,124
87		30	-	12	99.0		2	24	47	18	7	1	0									3,013
86		29	-	13	93.7		0	10	49	17	18	5	1	0								6,933
85		28	-	14	79.2		0	3	40	12	25	16	4	0								14,518
84		27	-	15	52.4		0	0	24	5	23	30	15	2	0	0						27,200
83		26	-	16	24.3			0	11	1	12	31	31	12	2	0	0					45,522
82		25	-	17	7.4			0	4	0	3	18	37	28	9	1	0					69,662
81		24	-	18	1.4				1	0	0	6	24	38	24	6	1	0				97,283
80		23	-	19	0.2				0	0	0	1	9	30	37	19	3	0				122,272
79		22	-	20	0.0				0		0	0	2	14	36	35	12	1	0			140,767
78		21	-	21	0.0				0			0	0	4	22	41	28	4	0			147,906
77		20	-	22	Out							0	0	1	9	34	43	13	1	0		140,639
76		19	-	23	Out									0	2	19	47	27	5	0		122,553
75		18	-	24	Out									0	0	7	37	39	15	2	0	96,717
74		17	-	25	Out										0	2	21	42	28	6	0	69,480
73		16	-	26	Out										0	0	10	33	40	16	1	45,891
72		15	-	27	Out											0	3	21	42	30	3	27,427
71		14	-	28	Out												1	10	37	46	7	14,551
70		13	-	29	Out											0	0	4	24	55	17	6,972
69		12	-	30	Out												0	1	13	56	30	3,036
68		11	-	31	Out													0	6	50	43	1,188
67		10	-	32	Out														2	38	60	423
66		9	-	33	Out															34	66	119
65		8	-	34	Out															13	87	39
57	-64				Out																100	108	*

Total:					4.6	%	0	0	2	0	2	4	7	11	14	18	20	12	7	3	0	1,206,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Angels 14 Mets 2	+0.7

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Diamondbacks 3 Mets 7	-0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

99		42	-	0	95	5
92	-93					100
91		34	-	8	7	14	43	32			4
90		33	-	9		8	18	38	28	7	2
89		32	-	10		2	10	23	32	21	10	2	0
88		31	-	11		0	2	11	23	28	22	10	3	0	0
87		30	-	12			0	1	8	20	30	25	13	2	1	0	0
86		29	-	13			0	0	1	5	16	29	29	13	5	1	0	0
85		28	-	14				0	0	0	4	15	31	29	9	8	3	1	0	0
84		27	-	15						0	0	3	16	34	8	15	14	7	2	0	0
83		26	-	16							0	0	4	20	3	11	21	22	13	5	1	0	0
82		25	-	17								0	0	7	0	3	11	22	27	19	8	2	0	0	0
81		24	-	18									0	1	0	0	2	8	19	27	25	13	4	1	0	0
80		23	-	19										0		0	0	1	5	14	26	27	18	7	2	0	0	0
79		22	-	20										0			0	0	0	3	10	23	29	22	10	3	0	0
78		21	-	21										0					0	0	2	8	20	29	25	12	3	1	0	0
77		20	-	22																0	0	1	6	17	29	27	14	4	1	0
76		19	-	23																	0	0	1	5	16	29	28	15	5	1	0	0
75		18	-	24																		0	0	1	5	16	29	28	16	5	1	0
74		17	-	25																			0	0	1	5	17	29	28	15	4	0	0
73		16	-	26																				0	0	1	5	17	30	29	14	3	0	0
72		15	-	27																					0	0	1	6	19	32	29	11	2	0
71		14	-	28																							0	1	7	23	35	26	7	1
70		13	-	29																								0	2	10	29	38	19	3
69		12	-	30																								0	0	3	16	40	33	9
68		11	-	31																										1	6	29	45	19
67		10	-	32																											2	18	45	34
66		9	-	33																												8	45	46
65		8	-	34																												3	18	79
57	-64																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	8	7	5	3	2	1	0	0