Boston Red Sox Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Beat Reds 5-4, playoff odds up 0.04 to 0.2%

54-65 .454

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Yankees 3 Red Sox 2	-2.6		-0.3
Reds 12 Rays 4	+0.3

Monday	None

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Sox finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

97		43	-	0	In		76	24														100
92		38	-	5	In			100														1
90		36	-	7	In			50	50													2
89		35	-	8	In			46	12	15	27											26
88		34	-	9	89.3	%		25	12	11	42	10	1									84
87		33	-	10	77.2			15	14	6	43	21	2	0								272
86		32	-	11	58.1			4	12	3	39	33	8	1								761
85		31	-	12	28.8			1	5	1	22	40	25	6	0							2,082
84		30	-	13	10.2			0	2	0	8	30	38	18	4	0						5,097
83		29	-	14	2.1				0		2	13	34	34	14	2	0					10,699
82		28	-	15	0.2				0		0	3	18	38	31	10	1	0				20,827
81		27	-	16	0.0				0		0	0	5	22	40	27	5	0				36,760
80		26	-	17	Out							0	1	7	29	43	18	2	0			57,502
79		25	-	18	Out								0	1	13	40	36	10	1			83,386
78		24	-	19	Out								0	0	3	24	45	24	3	0		109,398
77		23	-	20	Out									0	1	10	38	41	10	0		131,780
76		22	-	21	Out										0	3	25	49	22	1	0	144,531
75		21	-	22	Out										0	1	12	46	38	4	0	143,754
74		20	-	23	Out											0	5	34	51	10	0	131,527
73		19	-	24	Out											0	1	21	56	21	1	109,997
72		18	-	25	Out											0	0	11	51	35	3	83,161
71		17	-	26	Out												0	4	39	49	8	58,235
70		16	-	27	Out												0	2	25	56	17	36,252
69		15	-	28	Out													0	14	56	29	20,822
68		14	-	29	Out													0	6	49	45	10,533
67		13	-	30	Out														2	38	59	5,093
66		12	-	31	Out														1	26	73	2,013
65		11	-	32	Out														0	14	85	834
64		10	-	33	Out															9	91	282
63		9	-	34	Out															9	91	65
54	-62				Out																100	124	*

Total:					0.2	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	10	17	25	26	12	3	1,206,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Yankees 3 Red Sox 2	+0.7

Monday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

97		43	-	0	76	24
92		38	-	5		100
90		36	-	7				100
89		35	-	8		8	8	54	19	12
88		34	-	9			4	13	21	30	18	1	2		11
87		33	-	10			1	4	13	24	21	10	3	1	21	2
86		32	-	11				0	2	7	15	19	11	3	32	9	1
85		31	-	12					0	1	3	8	10	6	37	25	8	2	0	0
84		30	-	13					0	0	0	1	4	5	22	33	24	9	2	0
83		29	-	14								0	1	1	6	19	29	25	13	4	1	0	0
82		28	-	15									0	0	1	4	13	25	26	19	9	3	0	0	0
81		27	-	16										0	0	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	5	1	0	0	0
80		26	-	17												0	0	1	4	13	24	27	20	8	2	0	0	0
79		25	-	18													0	0	0	2	9	20	28	24	12	4	1	0
78		24	-	19															0	0	1	6	17	27	27	15	5	1	0	0
77		23	-	20																0	0	1	5	14	26	29	18	6	1	0	0
76		22	-	21																	0	0	1	4	13	26	30	19	6	1	0	0
75		21	-	22																		0	0	0	3	13	27	30	19	6	1	0
74		20	-	23																			0	0	0	3	14	28	31	18	5	1	0
73		19	-	24																				0	0	1	4	16	30	31	15	3	0	0
72		18	-	25																						0	1	6	19	33	29	12	1	0
71		17	-	26																						0	0	1	8	24	36	25	6	0
70		16	-	27																							0	0	2	11	31	38	16	2
69		15	-	28																								0	0	4	19	41	29	7
68		14	-	29																									0	1	8	33	42	17
67		13	-	30																										0	3	20	46	31
66		12	-	31																										0	1	12	40	48
65		11	-	32																											0	4	30	66
64		10	-	33																												2	20	78
63		9	-	34																												2	17	82
54	-62																																	100

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	5	7	8	10	11	12	11	9	7	5	2	1