Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances 2014 50/50

Beating Rangers 1-0 (Mid 1st), playoff odds down 0.007 to 3.3%

58-61 .487

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Reds 12 Rays 4	-2.7		-0.3

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orioles 7 Rays 1	-3.1		-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Rays finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

101		43	-	0	In		97	3														100
94		36	-	7	In		40	60														5
93		35	-	8	In			83		17												12
92		34	-	9	In		1	86	3	6	3											87
91		33	-	10	In		2	77	6	9	6											251
90		32	-	11	99.1	%	1	57	11	12	19	1										780
89		31	-	12	95.6		0	37	17	12	30	4	0									2,052
88		30	-	13	87.8		0	23	18	8	39	11	1	0								5,123
87		29	-	14	70.9			10	15	5	41	25	4	0								10,829
86		28	-	15	47.4			3	10	2	33	39	12	1	0							20,943
85		27	-	16	23.5			1	4	0	18	42	28	7	0	0						36,377
84		26	-	17	7.9			0	1	0	6	28	40	20	4	0						57,861
83		25	-	18	1.5				0	0	1	12	34	37	14	2	0					83,499
82		24	-	19	0.2				0		0	3	17	39	32	9	0	0				109,941
81		23	-	20	0.0				0		0	0	5	24	43	25	3	0	0			131,704
80		22	-	21	Out							0	1	9	34	44	11	1	0	0		144,111
79		21	-	22	Out							0	0	2	17	49	28	4	0			144,264
78		20	-	23	Out								0	0	6	36	42	14	1	0		131,406
77		19	-	24	Out									0	1	20	45	29	5	0		109,397
76		18	-	25	Out										0	8	35	41	15	1	0	83,434
75		17	-	26	Out										0	3	21	44	30	3	0	57,612
74		16	-	27	Out										0	1	9	37	44	8	0	36,276
73		15	-	28	Out											0	3	24	53	18	1	20,908
72		14	-	29	Out											0	1	13	51	32	3	10,551
71		13	-	30	Out												0	6	42	45	8	5,069
70		12	-	31	Out												0	2	27	54	16	2,152
69		11	-	32	Out													0	16	56	28	808
68		10	-	33	Out													0	7	46	47	260
67		9	-	34	Out														3	34	63	71
66		8	-	35	Out															14	86	14
58	-65				Out																100	103	*

Total:					3.3	%	0	0	1	0	2	5	8	11	16	21	17	11	6	1	0	1,206,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Reds 12 Rays 4	+0.6

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orioles 7 Rays 1	+0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

101	43	-	0	97	3
94	36	-	7	40	20	40
93	35	-	8		75	25
92	34	-	9		37	36	20	5	3
91	33	-	10	0	21	38	26	12	2
90	32	-	11	0	7	25	35	25	6	1	0			1
89	31	-	12	0	1	9	24	30	20	8	2	0		4	0
88	30	-	13		0	2	10	23	28	18	6	1	0	11	1	0
87	29	-	14		0	0	2	8	18	22	15	5	1	25	4	0
86	28	-	15			0	0	1	5	12	16	10	3	38	14	1	0
85	27	-	16				0	0	1	3	6	8	5	37	30	9	1	0	0
84	26	-	17					0	0	0	1	3	4	20	36	25	9	2	0	0	0
83	25	-	18								0	0	1	5	20	30	25	13	4	1	0	0
82	24	-	19								0	0	0	1	4	14	25	27	19	8	2	0	0	0
81	23	-	20										0	0	0	2	9	19	27	24	13	5	1	0	0
80	22	-	21											0	0	0	1	5	14	25	28	18	7	2	0	0
79	21	-	22													0	0	0	3	10	22	29	23	10	3	0	0
78	20	-	23															0	0	2	8	19	29	25	13	3	0	0
77	19	-	24																0	0	1	6	18	29	27	14	4	1	0	0
76	18	-	25																	0	0	1	6	17	29	28	15	4	1	0	0
75	17	-	26																	0	0	0	1	5	17	29	28	15	4	1	0
74	16	-	27																			0	0	1	5	18	31	28	14	3	0	0
73	15	-	28																				0	0	1	6	20	31	28	12	2	0
72	14	-	29																						0	1	8	22	34	25	9	1	0
71	13	-	30																						0	0	2	10	27	34	22	5	0
70	12	-	31																								0	3	14	32	35	14	2
69	11	-	32																									0	5	19	39	30	7
68	10	-	33																									0	1	9	33	40	16
67	9	-	34																											4	21	37	38
66	8	-	35																													36	64
65	7	-	36																													67	33
58	0	-	43																														100

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	5	5	6	6	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	0	0