Taca Guanabara Title Chances 2014

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Semi-Final			Chance will finish season at seed																		Serie B
	P	G	W	-	L	-	E	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Flamengo	38		12	-	1	-	2	20	Yes		Yes			100																1.0		No			1	.726	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Fluminense	31		9	-	2	-	4	15	No		Yes				100															2.0	+0.34	No			2	.690	Fluminense Football Club
Vasco da Gama	29		8	-	2	-	5	20	No		Yes					100														3.0	-0.24	No			3	.774	Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Cabofriense	25		7	-	4	-	4	1	No		Yes		+13.0				100													4.0	+0.04	No			4	.510	Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense

Boavista	25		7	-	4	-	4	-1	No		No		-13.0					100												5.0	-0.05	No			5	.480	Boavista Sport Club
Friburguense	21		6	-	6	-	3	-9	No		No								100											6.0	+1.79	No			8	.365	Friburguense Atletico Clube
Macae	19		5	-	6	-	4	2	No		No									100										7.0	+2.01	No			7	.525	Macae Esporte Futebol Clube
Volta Redonda	19		5	-	6	-	4	-1	No		No										100									8.0	-1.38	No			9	.477	Volta Redonda Futebol Clube
Nova Iguacu	19		4	-	4	-	7	1	No		No											100								9.0	-0.61	No			6	.511	Nova Iguacu Futebol Clube
Botafogo	17		4	-	6	-	5	-1	No		No												100							10.0	+0.77	No			11	.476	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Bangu	17		4	-	6	-	5	-4	No		No													100						11.0	-1.64	No			10	.421	Bangu Atletico Clube
Bonsucesso	15		3	-	6	-	6	-3	No		No														100					12.0	-0.65	No			12	.438	Bonsucesso Futebol Clube
Resende	15		3	-	6	-	6	-4	No		No															100				13.0	+0.86	No		-29.5	13	.438	Resende Futebol Clube
Madureira	13		3	-	8	-	4	-8	No		No																100			14.0	-0.69	No		-10.2	14	.376	Madureira Esporte Clube

Audax Rio	12		2	-	7	-	6	-11	No		No																	100		15.0	-0.45	Yes		+37.9	15	.322	Audax Rio de Janeiro Esporte Clube
Duque de Caxias	9		2	-	10	-	3	-17	No		No																		100	16.0	-0.08	Yes		+1.8	16	.268	Duque de Caxias Futebol Clube

Week of 3/8
Botafogo 0 Flamengo 2
6:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+5.4
Fluminense	-4.3
Cabofriense	No
Botafogo			No				-0.7

Duque de Caxias 2 Fluminense 2
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+4.1
Fluminense	-4.3						-0.3
Macae					-0.3
Bonsucesso					+0.8
Resende					+0.8
Madureira					-0.2
Duque de Caxias					-1.0

Vasco da Gama 1 Bonsucesso 1
6:30 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama	No		-0.4				-0.3
Boavista					*No
Bonsucesso					-3.6
Audax Rio					+1.2
Duque de Caxias					+1.6

Friburguense 1 Cabofriense 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense	No		-1.3				-0.3
Friburguense					No		-0.0

Nova Iguacu 3 Audax Rio 3
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Macae					-0.4
Nova Iguacu			No				-0.6
Bonsucesso					-0.2
Resende					-0.2
Madureira					-0.9
Audax Rio					+1.8

Boavista 1 Volta Redonda 0
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Boavista			+0.6				+1.4
Volta Redonda			No				-1.4

Bangu 1 Madureira 1
4:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bangu			No				-0.5
Madureira					-0.5		-0.4

Resende 3 Macae 2
4:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Macae					+1.3		-1.4
Bonsucesso					+2.7
Resende					-19.1		+1.0
Audax Rio					+6.7
Duque de Caxias					+7.4

Week of 3/15
Audax Rio 2 Cabofriense 0
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense			-11.9				-0.5
Boavista			+11.8
Resende					+15.5		-0.2
Madureira					+7.4
Audax Rio					-28.6		+0.9
Duque de Caxias					+4.0		-0.4

Boavista 2 Botafogo 1
4:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama			-0.2
Cabofriense			-2.0
Boavista			+2.3				+0.9
Botafogo							-1.4

Fluminense 1 Vasco da Gama 1
6:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama			Yes				-0.2

Macae 4 Duque de Caxias 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Macae					No		+1.4
Botafogo							-0.2
Resende					-9.4
Madureira					-3.0
Audax Rio					-1.2
Duque de Caxias					+14.3		-0.4

Friburguense 1 Resende 0
4:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Friburguense							+2.0
Bonsucesso					-1.9
Resende					+13.6		-1.2
Audax Rio					-4.2
Duque de Caxias					-6.3

Madureira 1 Bonsucesso 2
4:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bonsucesso					-8.8		+1.5
Madureira					+3.5		-1.4
Audax Rio					+2.1
Duque de Caxias					+2.2

Volta Redonda 3 Nova Iguacu 1
6:30 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Volta Redonda							+1.9
Nova Iguacu							-1.2

Flamengo 2 Bangu 2
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bangu							+0.1

Week of 3/22
Boavista 1 Bangu 0
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense			-18.1				-0.2
Boavista			+18.1				+0.3
Friburguense							+0.2
Macae							+0.3
Nova Iguacu							+0.3
Botafogo							+0.6
Bangu							-1.8

Flamengo 5 Cabofriense 3
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense			-11.1				-0.2
Boavista			+11.1

Audax Rio 0 Macae 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Friburguense							-0.3
Macae							+1.9
Volta Redonda							-0.3
Nova Iguacu							-0.5
Botafogo							-0.3
Bangu							-0.2
Resende					-20.6		+0.2
Madureira					No
Audax Rio					+32.7		-0.5
Duque de Caxias					-1.8

Madureira 0 Resende 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Resende					No		+1.0
Madureira					+16.1		-1.0
Audax Rio					+11.5		-0.2
Duque de Caxias					Yes

Vasco da Gama 4 Duque de Caxias 0
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense							-0.2
Vasco da Gama							+0.2
Resende					-1.5
Duque de Caxias					Yes

Friburguense 2 Bonsucesso 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Friburguense							+1.5
Volta Redonda							-0.5
Nova Iguacu							-0.5
Botafogo							+0.5
Bonsucesso							-1.4

Botafogo 1 Nova Iguacu 1
3:45 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Volta Redonda							+0.5
Nova Iguacu							-0.0
Botafogo							-0.9

Fluminense 3 Volta Redonda 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense							+0.3
Vasco da Gama							-0.3
Macae							+0.2
Volta Redonda							-0.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Taca Guanabara Title Chances 2014

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