Washington Nationals Playoff Chances 2014-6

Beating Mets 7-3 (Top 8th), playoff odds up 0.01 to 99.98%
83-63   .568

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Mariners 3 Nationals 8 +0.4
+0.1
Cardinals 2 Cubs 7 +0.1
Braves 5 Marlins 2 -0.1
Pirates 2 Reds 1 -0.0
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Mariners 1 Nationals 3 +0.2
+0.1
Cardinals 1 Cubs 5 +0.1
Braves 0 Marlins 4 +0.1
Cardinals 13 Cubs 2 -0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Nationals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
98-99In10020,480*
9714-2In100099,477
9613-3In1000330,503
9512-4In9730766,514
9411-5In891101,306,178
9310-6In702911,699,495
929-7In415461,707,815
918-8In1567181,349,863
907-9In35938840,882
896-10100.0%03862000410,127
885-11100.001881000155,303
874-1299.5692010044,747
863-1395.319004409,685
852-1478.1074417401,446
841-1537.73443528138
830-1610.71101945242727
Total:100.0%5136130000008,743,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Mariners 3 Nationals 8 -0.4
Orioles 9 Twins 1 +0.0
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Mariners 1 Nationals 3 -0.4
Orioles 3 Twins 2 +0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9916-09829
9815-137423
9714-2156440
9613-30346500
9512-40168040
9411-5067716100
9310-601523791000
929-7020402810200
918-80318332913300
907-9031328321850
896-10002926372330
885-110017294814000
874-1201950400000
863-13001286612100
852-140771178420
841-1538520221231
830-16111318302691
Total:0536211410753100000000