Miami Marlins Playoff Chances 2014-6

Lost to Phillies 1-2, playoff odds down 0.008 to 0.006%

71-76 .483

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Braves 5 Marlins 2	-0.3		-0.2
Cardinals 2 Cubs 7	+0.1
Pirates 2 Reds 1	-0.0
Padres 3 Dodgers 2			-0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Braves 0 Marlins 4	+0.3		+0.3
Padres 2 Dodgers 1			-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Marlins finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

86	15	-	0	32.0	%		0	14	0	17	59	9	0								766
85	14	-	1	13.7				7		7	59	25	2								751
84	13	-	2	2.1				1		1	44	45	9	0							6,853
83	12	-	3	0.2				0		0	21	54	25	0							38,198
82	11	-	4	0.0						0	7	44	49	1	0						147,248
81	10	-	5	Out							1	24	69	6	0	0					416,379
80	9	-	6	Out							0	8	69	22	2	0					879,208
79	8	-	7	Out							0	1	45	43	9	0	0				1,426,910
78	7	-	8	Out								0	18	50	28	4	0				1,781,859
77	6	-	9	Out								0	4	32	44	19	1	0			1,717,377
76	5	-	10	Out									0	10	37	42	10	0			1,261,998
75	4	-	11	Out									0	1	15	49	34	1			694,438
74	3	-	12	Out										0	2	28	62	7	0		280,413
73	2	-	13	Out											0	9	71	20	0		76,435
72	1	-	14	Out												2	59	39	0		12,817
71	0	-	15	Out												0	40	59	0		1,730

Total:				0.0	%		0	0	0	0	0	3	23	28	23	16	7	1	0		8,743,380

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Braves 5 Marlins 2	+0.3
Rays 4 Red Sox 8	-0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Braves 0 Marlins 4	-0.5
Padres 2 Dodgers 1	+0.1
Pirates 3 Reds 2	-0.0
Rays 7 Red Sox 0	+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

86	15	-	0							0	0	5	26	10	35	19	4	0
85	14	-	1									1	13	2	21	34	25	4	1
84	13	-	2									0	2	0	5	22	37	26	7	1
83	12	-	3										0	0	0	6	23	40	25	6	0
82	11	-	4										0		0	1	6	28	42	23	1	0
81	10	-	5												0	0	1	9	35	49	7	0	0
80	9	-	6													0	0	1	13	55	27	3	0	0
79	8	-	7														0	0	2	32	46	18	3	0	0
78	7	-	8															0	0	8	36	37	16	2	0	0
77	6	-	9																0	1	13	33	37	15	1	0	0
76	5	-	10																	0	2	11	33	41	12	1	0
75	4	-	11																		0	1	10	40	41	7	1	0
74	3	-	12																			0	1	14	51	28	6	0	0
73	2	-	13																				0	2	30	43	21	4	0	0
72	1	-	14																					0	9	33	38	16	2	0
71	0	-	15																						1	14	36	32	15	2

Total:										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	15	21	19	17	13	7	2	0	0	0	0