Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2014-6 50/50

Beating Brewers 5-1 (Mid 8th), playoff odds up 0.0005 to 0.008%

70-78 .473

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pirates 2 Reds 1	-0.9		-0.3
Cardinals 2 Cubs 7	+0.2
Braves 5 Marlins 2	-0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pirates 3 Reds 2	-0.6		-0.3
Cardinals 1 Cubs 5	+0.1
Cardinals 13 Cubs 2	-0.1
Braves 0 Marlins 4	+0.1
Padres 2 Dodgers 1			-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

84	14	-	0	24.9	%			1		23	62	13	0								402
83	13	-	1	4.2				0		4	55	35	6	0							2,371
82	12	-	2	0.2						0	22	47	29	2	0						14,942
81	11	-	3	0.0						0	4	29	53	14	1	0					60,427
80	10	-	4	Out							0	8	50	36	6	0					165,659
79	9	-	5	Out							0	1	25	50	22	2	0				331,697
78	8	-	6	Out								0	7	38	44	12	0	0			498,023
77	7	-	7	Out								0	1	15	47	33	4	0			567,842
76	6	-	8	Out									0	3	26	51	19	1			496,588
75	5	-	9	Out									0	0	8	43	43	6			331,475
74	4	-	10	Out										0	1	21	55	23	0		165,832
73	3	-	11	Out											0	6	44	50	0		60,317
72	2	-	12	Out												1	22	77	0		15,208
71	1	-	13	Out												0	7	91	2		2,329
70	0	-	14	Out													1	89	10		388

Total:				0.0	%			0		0	0	2	9	19	27	25	14	4	0		2,713,500

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pirates 2 Reds 1	+0.5

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pirates 3 Reds 2	+0.5
Padres 2 Dodgers 1	+0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

84	14	-	0									0	24		8	30	26	9	2
83	13	-	1									0	4		1	12	31	36	14	1	0
82	12	-	2										0		0	1	10	30	39	17	2	0
81	11	-	3										0			0	1	8	31	45	14	1	0	0
80	10	-	4													0	0	1	8	42	39	10	1	0
79	9	-	5															0	1	16	43	31	9	1	0
78	8	-	6															0	0	2	20	40	29	8	0	0
77	7	-	7																0	0	4	20	41	29	6	0	0
76	6	-	8																	0	0	4	22	43	26	5	0	0
75	5	-	9																		0	0	4	26	41	23	5	0	0
74	4	-	10																			0	0	6	27	39	21	6	1	0
73	3	-	11																				0	1	7	27	36	23	6	0
72	2	-	12																					0	1	8	25	39	24	4	0
71	1	-	13																							1	7	28	47	17	0
70	0	-	14																								1	10	43	44	3

Total:												0	0		0	0	0	0	1	6	13	17	20	19	13	7	3	1	0	0	0