Baltimore Orioles Playoff Chances 2014-6

Lost to Yankees 2-3, playoff odds down 0.001 to 99.996%
88-60   .595

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Orioles 9 Twins 1 +0.2
+0.1
Blue Jays 3 Yankees 6 -0.2
Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Orioles 3 Twins 2 +0.2
+0.1
Blue Jays 2 Yankees 0 +0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Orioles finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
10214-0In83175,240
10113-1In643645,924
10012-2In4258216,828
9911-3In2377626,227
9810-4In10901,234,417
979-5In49601,756,099
968-6In19901,859,824
957-7In09911,488,517
946-8In0955906,594
935-9In08515417,257
924-10100.0%06535000143,392
913-11100.03861000035,628
902-1299.5158212006,080
891-1394.54821751605
880-1468.405701020120748
Total:100.0%5922000008,743,380
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Orioles 9 Twins 1 -0.2
Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Orioles 3 Twins 2 -0.2

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
10214-08317
10113-16436
10012-24258
9911-32377
9810-4109000
979-549610
968-6196300
957-708613100
946-8062316000
935-903041226100
924-100725342382000
913-1116183128133000
902-1203132833193000
891-13029213624241
880-14162429919121
Total:58292100000000