San Diego Padres Playoff Chances 2014-5

Losing to Diamondbacks 2-7 (Bot 5th), playoff odds unchanged at 0.0002%

68-78 .466

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Padres 3 Dodgers 2	+0.1		+0.2
Braves 5 Marlins 2			+0.0

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Padres 2 Dodgers 1	+0.1		+0.2
Braves 0 Marlins 4			-0.1
Pirates 3 Reds 2			+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Padres finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

84	16	-	0	1.2	%					1	47	44	8								731
83	15	-	1	0.4						0	23	51	25	0							1,106
82	14	-	2	Out							7	42	49	2	0						9,043
81	13	-	3	Out							1	22	65	11	0						47,308
80	12	-	4	Out							0	7	59	31	3	0					171,137
79	11	-	5	Out							0	1	34	49	14	1					452,485
78	10	-	6	Out								0	12	46	35	7	0				902,086
77	9	-	7	Out								0	2	24	46	26	2	0			1,386,478
76	8	-	8	Out									0	6	33	49	11	0			1,662,592
75	7	-	9	Out									0	1	12	50	37	1			1,556,231
74	6	-	10	Out										0	2	27	65	6	0		1,135,313
73	5	-	11	Out											0	8	72	20	0		639,240
72	4	-	12	Out											0	1	60	39	0		271,595
71	3	-	13	Out												0	40	59	1		84,717
70	2	-	14	Out													21	73	6	0	18,211
69	1	-	15	Out													8	69	22	1	2,362
68	0	-	16	Out													1	48	45	6	825

Total:				0.0	%					0	0	0	5	14	21	29	26	5	0	0	8,341,460

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Padres 3 Dodgers 2	-0.4
Pirates 2 Reds 1	-0.0
Braves 5 Marlins 2	-0.0

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Padres 2 Dodgers 1	-0.4
Braves 0 Marlins 4	+0.1
Pirates 3 Reds 2	-0.0
Rays 7 Red Sox 0	+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

84	16	-	0										1		7	27	36	24	5	0
83	15	-	1										0		1	6	23	40	25	5	0
82	14	-	2												0	1	6	27	42	23	1
81	13	-	3													0	1	8	34	48	9	0	0
80	12	-	4														0	1	13	52	30	4	0	0
79	11	-	5														0	0	2	29	46	20	3	0
78	10	-	6															0	0	8	34	40	16	2	0
77	9	-	7																0	1	11	35	38	15	1	0
76	8	-	8																	0	1	12	36	40	11	1	0
75	7	-	9																	0	0	1	13	42	37	6	0	0
74	6	-	10																		0	0	2	18	53	24	3	0	0
73	5	-	11																			0	0	3	37	42	15	3	0	0
72	4	-	12																				0	0	13	36	33	14	3	0	0
71	3	-	13																					0	2	15	33	32	15	3	0
70	2	-	14																						0	3	13	31	36	15	1
69	1	-	15																							0	2	12	34	40	12	0
68	0	-	16																								0	0	11	43	40	6

Total:													0		0	0	0	0	1	4	9	14	18	21	20	9	3	1	0	0	0	0