New York Mets Playoff Chances 2014-5 50/50

Losing to Nationals 3-7 (Top 8th), playoff odds up 0.007 to 0.06%

72-76 .486

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Mets 4 Phillies 1			+0.3

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Mets 2 Phillies 7	-0.1		-0.3
Padres 2 Dodgers 1			-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

86	14	-	0	45.5	%		1	6	1	38	47	7									363
85	13	-	1	18.1			0	2	0	16	61	21	0								2,270
84	12	-	2	4.3				0		4	51	43	2								13,809
83	11	-	3	0.5				0		0	28	61	11	0							56,017
82	10	-	4	0.0						0	10	58	32	1	0						153,295
81	9	-	5	0.0						0	2	36	57	5	0	0					307,007
80	8	-	6	Out							0	13	65	20	1	0					460,511
79	7	-	7	Out							0	3	45	43	9	1	0				526,921
78	6	-	8	Out								0	18	48	29	5	0	0			459,618
77	5	-	9	Out								0	3	28	44	22	2	0			306,837
76	4	-	10	Out									0	8	33	44	14	0			153,548
75	3	-	11	Out									0	1	12	45	38	4			55,877
74	2	-	12	Out										0	2	25	58	15			13,897
73	1	-	13	Out											0	8	56	35			2,137
72	0	-	14	Out												2	40	58			373

Total:				0.1	%		0	0	0	0	2	13	34	26	15	8	2	0			2,512,480

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Mets 4 Phillies 1	-0.5

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Mets 2 Phillies 7	+0.5
Cardinals 13 Cubs 2	-0.1
Padres 2 Dodgers 1	+0.1

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

86	14	-	0								1	7	38	13	27	12	2	0
85	13	-	1								0	1	17	4	25	30	17	5	1
84	12	-	2									0	4	0	6	26	37	22	4	0
83	11	-	3										0	0	1	7	27	41	21	3	0
82	10	-	4										0	0	0	1	7	32	43	18	0
81	9	-	5										0			0	1	10	39	46	3	0	0
80	8	-	6														0	1	17	61	18	2	0	0
79	7	-	7														0	0	3	44	38	13	1	0	0
78	6	-	8															0	0	16	37	33	12	2	0	0
77	5	-	9																0	2	15	34	33	13	2	0	0
76	4	-	10																	0	2	13	31	34	16	4	0	0
75	3	-	11																		0	1	10	27	33	21	6	1	0
74	2	-	12																			0	1	7	21	34	27	9	1	0
73	1	-	13																				0	0	6	17	37	31	8	0
72	0	-	14																						1	3	20	42	31	4

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	12	30	21	14	9	5	2	1	0	0	0	0