Miami Marlins Playoff Chances 2014-5

Lost to Phillies 1-2, playoff odds down 0.008 to 0.007%

71-76 .483

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Braves 5 Marlins 2	-0.3		-0.2
Cardinals 2 Cubs 7	+0.1
Pirates 2 Reds 1	-0.0
Padres 3 Dodgers 2			-0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Braves 0 Marlins 4	+0.2		+0.3
Pirates 3 Reds 2			+0.0
Padres 2 Dodgers 1			-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Marlins finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

86	15	-	0	35.2	%		0	14		21	57	7	0								730
85	14	-	1	11.7				5		6	62	24	2								770
84	13	-	2	2.4				1		1	42	47	9								6,561
83	12	-	3	0.2				0		0	21	53	26	0							36,704
82	11	-	4	0.0						0	7	43	49	1	0						140,364
81	10	-	5	Out							1	24	69	6	0	0					396,722
80	9	-	6	Out							0	8	69	22	2	0					839,781
79	8	-	7	Out							0	1	46	43	9	0	0				1,360,538
78	7	-	8	Out								0	18	50	27	4	0				1,699,761
77	6	-	9	Out								0	4	32	44	19	1	0			1,637,725
76	5	-	10	Out									0	10	37	42	10	0			1,204,410
75	4	-	11	Out									0	1	15	48	34	1			663,692
74	3	-	12	Out										0	2	28	62	8	0		266,376
73	2	-	13	Out											0	9	70	21	0		73,286
72	1	-	14	Out											0	2	57	41	0		12,381
71	0	-	15	Out												0	36	63	0		1,659

Total:				0.0	%		0	0		0	0	3	23	28	23	16	7	1	0		8,341,460

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Braves 5 Marlins 2	+0.3
Rays 4 Red Sox 8	-0.1
Padres 3 Dodgers 2	+0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Braves 0 Marlins 4	-0.5
Padres 2 Dodgers 1	+0.1
Pirates 3 Reds 2	-0.0
Rays 7 Red Sox 0	+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

86	15	-	0								0	7	28	10	33	19	3	0
85	14	-	1									0	12	2	24	33	24	5	1
84	13	-	2									0	2	0	6	24	37	24	6	0
83	12	-	3										0		1	6	25	39	24	5	0
82	11	-	4										0		0	1	7	29	41	22	1	0
81	10	-	5												0	0	1	9	35	48	6	0	0
80	9	-	6													0	0	1	14	55	26	3	0	0
79	8	-	7														0	0	2	32	46	18	3	0	0
78	7	-	8															0	0	8	36	37	16	2	0	0
77	6	-	9																0	1	13	33	37	15	1	0	0
76	5	-	10																0	0	2	11	33	41	12	1	0	0
75	4	-	11																		0	1	10	39	41	8	1	0	0
74	3	-	12																		0	0	1	14	51	28	6	0	0
73	2	-	13																				0	2	29	43	22	4	0	0
72	1	-	14																					0	9	33	39	16	2	0
71	0	-	15																						1	13	35	35	15	2

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	15	21	19	17	13	7	2	0	0	0	0