Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2014-5

Beating Brewers 5-1 (Mid 8th), playoff odds up 0.0006 to 0.003%

70-79 .470

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pirates 2 Reds 1	-0.4		-0.2
Cardinals 2 Cubs 7	+0.1
Braves 5 Marlins 2	-0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pirates 3 Reds 2	-0.3		-0.2
Braves 0 Marlins 4	+0.1		-0.1
Cardinals 1 Cubs 5	+0.1
Padres 2 Dodgers 1			-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

84	14	-	0	11.7	%			1		11	70	17	0								1,037
83	13	-	1	1.3						1	48	43	8	0							5,455
82	12	-	2	0.1						0	19	48	31	2	0						38,321
81	11	-	3	0.0						0	4	29	57	11	0	0					160,996
80	10	-	4	Out							0	8	58	31	3	0					463,915
79	9	-	5	Out							0	1	35	51	13	1	0				964,721
78	8	-	6	Out								0	12	50	33	5	0				1,495,257
77	7	-	7	Out								0	2	28	49	19	1	0			1,759,173
76	6	-	8	Out									0	8	42	43	6	0			1,576,884
75	5	-	9	Out									0	1	19	55	24	1			1,072,565
74	4	-	10	Out										0	4	40	48	8	0		543,548
73	3	-	11	Out											0	17	56	27	0		200,311
72	2	-	12	Out											0	4	41	55	0		50,497
71	1	-	13	Out												0	19	80	0		7,529
70	0	-	14	Out												0	4	94	2		1,251

Total:				0.0	%			0		0	0	1	11	24	29	23	9	2	0		8,341,460

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pirates 2 Reds 1	+0.4
Padres 3 Dodgers 2	+0.1
Rays 4 Red Sox 8	-0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pirates 3 Reds 2	+0.3
Padres 2 Dodgers 1	+0.1
Braves 0 Marlins 4	+0.1
Rays 7 Red Sox 0	+0.0

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

84	14	-	0									0	11	0	13	32	31	11	1
83	13	-	1									0	1		2	13	34	34	15	1
82	12	-	2										0		0	2	12	32	38	15	1	0
81	11	-	3										0			0	1	9	33	44	12	1	0
80	10	-	4														0	1	9	45	36	8	0	0
79	9	-	5														0	0	1	20	46	28	5	0	0
78	8	-	6															0	0	4	27	43	22	4	0	0
77	7	-	7																	0	7	31	42	18	1	0
76	6	-	8																	0	1	9	37	43	10	1	0
75	5	-	9																		0	1	14	48	31	6	0	0	0
74	4	-	10																			0	2	26	44	23	4	0	0	0
73	3	-	11																				0	6	29	40	19	5	1	0
72	2	-	12																					1	8	30	35	20	6	0
71	1	-	13																					0	1	8	27	37	23	4	0
70	0	-	14																						0	1	6	25	47	20	0

Total:												0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	14	20	22	21	10	3	1	0	0	0	0