Toronto Blue Jays Playoff Chances 2014-5

Beat Rays 6-3, playoff odds up 0.4 to 2.4%

77-70 .524

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jays 3 Yankees 6	-0.4		-0.2
Mariners 3 Nationals 8	+0.1
White Sox 1 Tigers 7	-0.1
Rays 4 Red Sox 8			+0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blue Jays 2 Yankees 0	+0.2		+0.1
Mariners 1 Nationals 3	+0.1
Rays 7 Red Sox 0			-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jays finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

92	15	-	0	In			23	5	50	22											801
91	14	-	1	97.5	%		4	3	42	49	3										2,102
90	13	-	2	88.0			0	1	23	63	12	0									15,595
89	12	-	3	61.9			0	0	8	54	34	4	0								75,458
88	11	-	4	29.2			0	0	1	28	50	20	0	0							249,469
87	10	-	5	8.1					0	8	42	47	3	0							605,188
86	9	-	6	1.2					0	1	19	65	14	0							1,105,745
85	8	-	7	0.1					0	0	5	58	34	3							1,555,289
84	7	-	8	0.0						0	1	35	49	15	0						1,696,914
83	6	-	9	Out							0	14	48	38	0						1,431,325
82	5	-	10	Out							0	4	30	66	0						933,540
81	4	-	11	Out								0	12	84	4						457,173
80	3	-	12	Out								0	3	84	14	0					164,556
79	2	-	13	Out									0	68	32	0					40,962
78	1	-	14	Out									0	43	57	0					6,187
77	0	-	15	Out										21	78	2	0				1,156

Total:				2.4	%		0	0	0	2	8	34	31	24	1	0	0				8,341,460

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blue Jays 3 Yankees 6	+0.5
Rays 4 Red Sox 8	-0.1

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blue Jays 2 Yankees 0	-0.3

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

92	15	-	0		5	21	29	25	15	5	1
91	14	-	1		0	1	9	22	32	23	10	2	0	3
90	13	-	2			0	1	5	16	28	26	10	1	12	0
89	12	-	3				0	0	3	10	22	22	5	33	5	0
88	11	-	4				0	0	0	1	6	14	8	48	22	0	0
87	10	-	5						0	0	0	3	5	38	51	3	0	0
86	9	-	6							0	0	0	1	16	66	15	1	0	0
85	8	-	7								0	0	0	3	50	36	10	1	0
84	7	-	8										0	0	21	40	28	9	1	0
83	6	-	9											0	5	22	37	29	8	0	0
82	5	-	10												0	5	22	41	30	2	0	0
81	4	-	11												0	0	6	27	54	13	1	0
80	3	-	12													0	0	8	50	33	8	1	0	0
79	2	-	13														0	1	23	41	25	8	1	0
78	1	-	14															0	5	23	36	25	10	1
77	0	-	15																1	5	20	32	31	11	1

Total:					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	7	28	21	17	13	9	2	0	0	0	0	0