Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2014-4 50/50

Beat Cubs 7-2, playoff odds up 0.8 to 2.9%

65-70 .481

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Nationals 9 Reds 4	-2.7		-0.3
Cardinals 5 Diamondbacks 0	-0.3
Braves 5 Brewers 0	+0.2

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Nationals 1 Reds 2	+2.5		+0.3
Cardinals 3 Diamondbacks 2	-0.3
Braves 1 Brewers 6	-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

93	28	-	0	In		70	29	1													183
90	25	-	3	In		19	54	27													26
89	24	-	4	In		10	39	41	9	1											169
88	23	-	5	99.9	%	2	27	50	18	3	0										881
87	22	-	6	98.5		1	9	42	35	12	1	0									3,094
86	21	-	7	91.4		0	2	25	34	29	8	1									9,923
85	20	-	8	68.4		0	0	9	20	38	25	6	0								25,490
84	19	-	9	34.4			0	2	6	26	38	22	5	0							56,752
83	18	-	10	10.4				0	1	9	30	40	18	2	0						107,632
82	17	-	11	1.8				0	0	2	13	37	39	9	0	0					177,249
81	16	-	12	0.2					0	0	3	20	50	25	2	0	0				249,768
80	15	-	13	0.0						0	0	6	39	43	10	1	0	0			308,302
79	14	-	14	Out							0	1	20	49	25	4	0	0			330,886
78	13	-	15	Out								0	7	37	40	15	2	0			308,134
77	12	-	16	Out								0	1	18	40	31	9	1	0		250,491
76	11	-	17	Out									0	6	26	40	24	5	0		177,350
75	10	-	18	Out									0	1	11	34	39	15	0		107,792
74	9	-	19	Out										0	3	18	43	34	2	0	57,050
73	8	-	20	Out										0	0	7	32	53	8	0	25,655
72	7	-	21	Out											0	2	17	61	19	1	9,743
71	6	-	22	Out												0	6	55	36	3	3,201
70	5	-	23	Out													2	38	51	8	826
69	4	-	24	Out													1	17	65	17	176
68	3	-	25	Out														9	50	41	22
67	2	-	26	Out															50	50	2
65	0	-	28	Out															19	81	183

Total:				2.9	%	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	19	25	18	12	7	3	0	0	2,210,980

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nationals 9 Reds 4	+0.7

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nationals 1 Reds 2	-0.7

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

93	28	-	0	10	42	40	8		1
90	25	-	3			8	31	58	4
89	24	-	4			3	9	29	37	19	2	1
88	23	-	5			0	3	11	28	33	18	5	0	0
87	22	-	6				0	2	8	27	36	21	4	1	0	0
86	21	-	7					0	1	7	26	38	20	5	3	1	0
85	20	-	8						0	1	7	27	34	7	12	9	3	0	0	0
84	19	-	9							0	1	8	25	4	16	24	16	5	1	0	0
83	18	-	10								0	1	9	1	6	21	30	22	9	2	0	0
82	17	-	11									0	2	0	1	6	20	31	26	12	3	0	0
81	16	-	12									0	0	0	0	1	5	17	31	30	14	3	0	0
80	15	-	13										0		0	0	0	4	15	31	31	15	3	0	0
79	14	-	14													0	0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0
78	13	-	15															0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0	0
77	12	-	16																0	0	3	15	32	31	15	4	0	0	0
76	11	-	17																	0	0	3	15	31	30	16	4	1	0	0
75	10	-	18																		0	0	3	15	29	30	17	5	1	0
74	9	-	19																			0	0	3	14	28	31	18	5	1	0
73	8	-	20																				0	0	3	14	29	32	17	4	0	0
72	7	-	21																					0	0	4	14	31	33	15	3	0
71	6	-	22																							0	3	17	33	33	12	1	0
70	5	-	23																								0	4	19	38	31	7	0
69	4	-	24																										6	28	45	16	4
68	3	-	25																											18	32	36	14
67	2	-	26																													100
65	0	-	28																												3	34	62

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	4	6	9	11	13	14	12	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0