Ligue 1 Title Chances 2014-2015

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												UEFA CL			Chance will finish season at seed																						Down to Ligue 2
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Paris SG	62		17	-	11	-	3	28	75.6	%	+1.3	98.5	%	+0.4	76	17	5	1	0	0	0	0	0												1.3	+0.03	No			1	.631	Paris Saint-Germain FC
Lyon	58		17	-	7	-	7	26	14.4		+0.4	80.4		+2.5	14	39	27	13	5	1	0	0	0	0	0										2.6	+0.07	No			5	.595	Olympique Lyonnais
Marseille	57		17	-	6	-	8	28	7.3		+0.2	65.8		+4.0	7	26	32	21	10	3	1	0	0	0	0	0									3.1	+0.07	No			4	.586	Olympique de Marseille

Monaco	55		15	-	10	-	6	14	2.1		-2.0	36.6		-8.3	2	12	22	32	21	8	2	0	0	0	0	0									3.9	-0.24	No			2	.568	AS Monaco FC
St-Etienne	53		14	-	11	-	6	13	0.5		+0.0	14.8		+1.5	0	4	10	22	34	20	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	0							4.8	+0.06	No			3	.551	AS Saint-Etienne
Bordeaux	50		14	-	8	-	9	-2	0.0		+0.0	2.2		+0.3	0	0	2	5	14	33	34	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					6.3	+0.02	No			6	.524	FC Girondins de Bordeaux
Montpellier	50		14	-	8	-	9	13	0.0		-0.0	1.7		-0.4	0	0	1	6	15	30	37	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					6.3	+0.02	No			7	.524	Montpellier HSC
Lille	44		12	-	8	-	11	3	0.0			0.0		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	39	22	12	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		8.7	-0.01	0.0	%		8	.471	Lille OSC
Rennes	42		11	-	9	-	11	-6	0.0			0.0			0	0	0	0	0	1	4	20	25	18	12	8	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	10.0		0.0			9	.453	Stade Rennais FC
Nantes	41		10	-	11	-	10	-3	No			0.0				0	0	0	0	0	2	10	16	19	17	13	9	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	10.9	-0.01	0.2		+0.0	10	.444	FC Nantes
Guingamp	39		12	-	3	-	16	-10	No			0.0					0	0	0	0	0	4	8	12	14	15	14	12	9	6	4	1	0	0	12.4		1.4		+0.0	14	.426	En Avant de Guingamp
Bastia	39		10	-	9	-	12	-2	No			0.0					0	0	0	0	0	3	8	11	14	15	14	13	10	7	4	1	0	0	12.5	-0.01	1.2		+0.0	12	.426	SC Bastia
Caen	38		10	-	8	-	13	1	No			0.0					0	0	0	0	0	3	7	11	13	14	14	13	11	8	5	2	0	0	12.7	+0.01	1.8		-0.0	13	.417	Stade Malherbe de Caen
Nice	38		10	-	8	-	13	-4	No			0.0					0	0	0	0	0	2	6	9	11	13	14	14	12	9	6	2	0	0	13.1		2.5		+0.0	11	.417	OGC Nice
Reims	37		10	-	7	-	14	-15	No			No						0	0	0	0	1	3	5	7	9	12	14	16	15	12	7	0	0	14.2		6.9		+0.0	18	.408	Stade de Reims
Evian TG	34		10	-	4	-	17	-15	No			No							0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	9	12	17	23	22	2	0	15.9		24.0		+0.1	17	.382	Evian Thonon Gaillard FC
Lorient	34		10	-	4	-	17	-11	No			No							0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	9	13	19	22	22	3	0	15.9		25.5		-0.0	15	.382	FC Lorient

Toulouse	33		9	-	6	-	16	-18	No			No							0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	10	15	22	34	4	0	16.5	+0.01	38.8		-0.1	16	.373	Toulouse FC
Metz	26		6	-	8	-	17	-18	No			No										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	60	32	19.2		98.2		-0.0	20	.311	FC Metz
Lens	24		6	-	6	-	19	-22	No			No											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	30	67	19.6		99.5		-0.0	19	.293	RC Lens

Week of 4/4
Marseille 2 Paris SG 3
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Paris SG	+28.6		+6.0				+0.5
Lyon	-8.1		+2.3
Marseille	-18.5		-17.0				-0.7
Monaco	-1.9		+7.0
St-Etienne			+1.2
Bordeaux			+0.3

Guingamp 1 Lyon 3
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Paris SG	-8.9		-1.1				-0.2
Lyon	+15.7		+9.1				+0.5
Marseille	-5.3		-2.6				-0.2
Monaco	-1.5		-4.1
St-Etienne			-0.9
Bordeaux			-0.3
Guingamp							-0.9

Monaco 1 St-Etienne 1
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Paris SG	+1.1		+2.2
Lyon	+0.5		+3.8
Marseille	+0.6		+5.2
Monaco	-2.3		-8.8				-0.2
St-Etienne			-2.8				-0.0

Monaco 0 Montpellier 0
8:00 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Paris SG	+1.2		+0.4
Lyon	+0.4		+2.4
Marseille	+0.2		+3.6
Monaco	-1.9		-7.5				-0.2
St-Etienne			+1.3
Bordeaux			+0.3
Montpellier			-0.3				+0.0

Bordeaux 2 Lens 1
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Lyon			-0.2
Bordeaux			+0.5				+0.2
Lens					+0.4

Montpellier 3 Bastia 1
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Montpellier			+0.4				+0.3
Bastia					+1.9		-0.7
Caen					-0.4
Reims					-0.2
Evian TG					-0.2
Lorient					-0.4
Toulouse					-0.6

Metz 3 Toulouse 2
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Bastia					-1.4
Caen					-3.8
Nice					-0.3
Reims					-2.7
Evian TG					-2.2
Lorient					-3.1
Toulouse					+14.0		-0.5
Metz							+0.2

Lorient 0 Rennes 3
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Rennes					-0.4		+1.1
Bastia					-0.8
Caen					-2.3
Nice					-0.3
Reims					-1.9
Evian TG					-1.2
Lorient					+11.3		-1.1
Toulouse					-4.0

Nantes 1 Caen 2
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nantes							-1.1
Bastia					+0.8
Caen					-10.1		+1.5
Reims					+2.0		-0.2
Evian TG					+0.6
Lorient					+1.8		-0.2
Toulouse					+4.2

Lille 3 Reims 1
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Lille							+0.6
Bastia					-0.2
Caen					-0.7
Nice					-0.2
Reims					+4.3		-0.7
Evian TG					-0.3
Lorient					-0.8
Toulouse					-2.0

Nice 2 Evian TG 2
8:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Caen					+0.2
Nice					-0.2		-0.5
Reims					+0.2
Evian TG					-1.2		+0.1
Lorient					+0.3
Toulouse					+0.6

Week of 4/12
Paris SG vs MetzIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Paris SG	82.366.656.7		99.497.595.1				1.21.51.7
Lyon	10.819.324.5		80.280.681.0				2.72.52.5
Marseille	5.210.113.2		65.666.166.6				3.13.13.0
Metz					99.097.992.8		19.319.218.8

Lyon vs BastiaHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Paris SG	71.679.882.5		98.398.798.9				1.41.31.2
Lyon	19.59.15.6		87.774.364.9				2.32.83.2
Marseille	6.68.18.6		63.867.570.0				3.23.02.9
Monaco	1.82.42.7		33.938.842.3				4.03.83.8
St-Etienne			13.016.318.6				4.94.84.7
Bastia			NoNo0.0		1.80.70.1		13.012.311.1

Bordeaux vs MarseilleHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Paris SG	78.476.770.8		98.898.698.1				1.31.31.4
Marseille	3.45.914.1		54.665.681.4				3.53.12.6
Monaco			41.037.229.9				3.93.94.0
St-Etienne			16.815.011.7

Caen vs MonacoHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Lyon	14.714.613.9		83.981.676.1				2.52.62.7
Marseille			71.567.759.2				3.03.13.2
Monaco	0.61.34.3		23.632.451.8				4.34.03.4
Caen					0.31.63.5		11.712.913.6

St-Etienne vs NantesHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Marseille			63.767.668.8				3.23.13.0
St-Etienne	0.80.20.1		21.29.55.6				4.55.15.4
Nantes			No0.00.0		0.40.10.0		11.510.89.7

Toulouse vs MontpellierHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Evian TG					29.723.219.3		16.015.815.7
Lorient					30.524.921.5		16.115.915.8
Toulouse					22.241.152.0		15.716.717.1

Rennes vs GuingampHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Rennes							9.310.311.1
Guingamp			No*No0.0		2.21.00.1		13.112.310.9

Evian TG vs LilleHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Lille	No0.00.0				0.00.0No		9.28.88.1
Evian TG					11.726.436.7		15.016.116.6
Lorient					29.224.821.7		16.115.915.8
Toulouse					43.837.833.5		16.616.516.4

Reims vs NiceHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nice					4.21.70.2		13.913.011.6
Reims					2.18.314.3		13.314.715.4

Lens vs LorientHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Down to Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Evian TG					20.923.627.9		15.815.816.0
Lorient					36.426.311.9		16.616.115.0
Toulouse					35.038.543.5		16.416.516.6

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Ligue 1 Title Chances 2014-2015

Big Games