Football League One Title Chances 2014-2015 50/50

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Championship			Chance will finish season at seed																										League Two
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

Bristol City	36		10	-	6	-	2	14	21.4	%	-6.2	46.9	%	-6.6	21	16	13	10	8	7	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.7	-0.56	0.2	%	+0.1	1	Bristol City
Swindon	35		10	-	5	-	3	15	17.7		+5.0	42.0		+8.0	18	15	12	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.2	+1.00	0.3		-0.3	2	Swindon

Preston	34		10	-	4	-	4	11	14.3		+4.0	36.9		+7.4	14	13	12	10	9	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.8	+1.05	0.5		-0.5	3	Preston
Milton Keynes D	30	3	9	-	3	-	3	14	16.0		+4.5	38.3		+7.4	16	13	11	10	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5.8	+1.04	0.7		-0.6	4	Milton Keynes Dons
Sheff Utd	30	1	9	-	3	-	5	4	8.2		-0.8	25.6		-1.3	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	7.4	-0.16	1.5		+0.1	5	Sheff Utd
Notts County	29	1	8	-	5	-	4	8	6.7		-2.5	22.3		-5.0	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	8.1	-0.83	2.0		+0.7	9	Notts County

Rochdale	26	1	8	-	2	-	7	11	3.1		-1.5	13.4		-3.8	3	4	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	10.2	-0.94	4.9		+1.6	10	Rochdale
Peterborough	27		8	-	3	-	7	5	2.6		-1.3	12.0		-3.6	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	10.5	-0.96	5.3		+1.7	12	Peterborough
Oldham	27		6	-	9	-	3	5	2.6		-0.4	12.0		-0.9	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	10.5	-0.23	5.3		+0.5	6	Oldham
Fleetwood Town	25		7	-	4	-	7	2	1.4		-0.8	7.9		-2.7	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	12.0	-1.01	8.9		+2.6	8	Fleetwood Town
Chesterfield	24		6	-	6	-	6	0	1.0		+0.4	6.2		+1.9	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	12.8	+1.24	11.4		-4.6	7	Chesterfield
Doncaster	21	2	6	-	3	-	7	-6	1.1		+0.4	6.3		+1.9	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	13.1	+1.23	13.1		-4.8	11	Doncaster
Barnsley	22	1	6	-	4	-	7	-1	0.9		-0.5	5.6		-2.1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	13.3	-1.03	13.5		+3.6	14	Barnsley
Bradford	23		6	-	5	-	7	-1	0.7		-0.1	4.9		-0.5	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	13.6	-0.28	14.2		+1.2	13	Bradford
Walsall	22		5	-	7	-	6	-1	0.5		+0.2	3.9		+1.3	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	14.4	+1.19	17.3		-5.9	16	Walsall
Port Vale	22		6	-	4	-	8	-2	0.5		-0.4	3.9		-1.6	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	14.4	-1.05	17.5		+4.5	15	Port Vale
Crawley Town	21		5	-	6	-	7	-10	0.4		-0.1	2.9		-0.4	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	4	15.2	-0.30	21.7		+1.7	18	Crawley Town
Coventry	20		5	-	5	-	8	-7	0.2		+0.1	2.2		+0.8	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	6	6	15.9	+1.11	25.6		-7.1	19	Coventry
Leyton Orient	19		4	-	7	-	7	-3	0.2		+0.1	1.7		+0.6	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	8	8	7	16.6	+1.08	29.8		-7.6	17	Leyton Orient
Gillingham	18		4	-	6	-	8	-7	0.1		-0.0	1.3		-0.2	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	9	9	17.3	-0.31	35.0		+2.4	23	Gillingham

Scunthorpe	16	1	4	-	4	-	9	-11	0.1		-0.0	1.1		-0.2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	10	11	17.8	-0.31	38.7		+2.6	22	Scunthorpe
Colchester	17		4	-	5	-	9	-4	0.1		-0.1	0.9		-0.5	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	10	12	18.0	-0.98	39.9		+7.7	20	Colchester
Yeovil	17		4	-	5	-	9	-14	0.1		+0.0	0.9		+0.3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	11	12	18.1	+0.93	40.7		-7.9	21	Yeovil
Crewe	15		4	-	3	-	11	-22	0.0		-0.0	0.5		-0.3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	8	9	11	13	19	19.4	-0.93	52.1		+8.5	24	Crewe

Week of 10/11
Bristol City 3 Chesterfield 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+5.6		+7.4		-0.4		+0.9
Swindon	-0.5		-0.3
Chesterfield	-2.4		-4.7		+1.7		-1.0

Crawley Town 1 Peterborough 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Peterborough	+2.7		+5.4		-1.6		+1.1
Crawley Town	-0.7		-2.3		+4.1		-1.1

Barnsley 3 Bradford 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Barnsley	+0.8		+2.5		-5.0		+1.3
Bradford	-1.5		-3.8		+2.4		-1.1

Oldham 2 Walsall 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Oldham	+1.1		+3.2		-4.1		+1.3
Walsall	-0.5		-1.6		+5.2		-1.1

Colchester 2 Fleetwood Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Fleetwood Town	-1.0		-2.9		+3.3		-1.1
Colchester	+0.3		+1.1		-7.2		+1.1

Sheff Utd 2 Leyton Orient 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Sheff Utd	-0.5		-1.0		+0.3		-0.2
Leyton Orient			-0.5		+1.0		-0.3

Port Vale 4 Yeovil 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Port Vale	+0.2		+1.1		-7.6		+1.1
Yeovil	-0.4		-1.6		+5.5		-1.1

Crewe 2 Coventry 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Coventry	-0.5		-1.8		+4.9		-1.1
Crewe			+0.3		-8.0		+0.9

Gillingham 0 Scunthorpe 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Gillingham	-0.4		-1.5		+5.5		-1.1
Scunthorpe			+0.7		-8.1		+1.1

Week of 10/18
Coventry 1 Bristol City 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+6.1		+7.3		-0.3		+0.8
Swindon	-0.9		-0.7
Preston	-0.6		-0.5
Milton Keynes D	-0.7		-0.6
Peterborough	-0.6		-0.6
Coventry	-0.4		-1.5		+5.2		-1.0
Scunthorpe					-0.5
Crewe					-0.4

Peterborough 2 Barnsley 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-0.6		-0.5
Peterborough	+3.4		+6.3		-1.1		+1.1
Barnsley	-0.9		-2.7		+3.6		-1.1

Gillingham 0 Preston 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-0.8		-0.7
Preston	+3.3		+6.1		-1.0		+1.0
Peterborough	-0.4		-0.6
Coventry					-0.4
Gillingham	-0.2		-1.1		+5.9		-1.0
Scunthorpe					-0.4
Crewe					-0.4

Crewe 1 Peterborough 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+0.8		+0.6
Swindon	+0.3		+0.5
Preston	+0.4		+0.6
Peterborough	-3.2		-5.5		+0.7		-0.8
Walsall					+0.6
Port Vale					+0.5
Crawley Town					+0.6
Coventry					+0.5
Leyton Orient					+0.5
Gillingham					+0.6
Scunthorpe					+0.5
Yeovil					+0.6
Crewe			+0.7		-7.8		+1.0

Swindon 2 Rochdale 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+0.5		+0.4
Swindon	-2.8		-5.3		+0.9		-0.9
Rochdale	+1.1		+3.5		-3.4		+1.3

Preston 2 Port Vale 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-0.6		-0.5
Preston	+2.9		+5.5		-1.7		+1.1
Port Vale	-0.3		-1.3		+5.7		-1.0

Milton Keynes D 2 Fleetwood Town 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Milton Keynes D	+2.5		+5.5		-1.6		+1.1
Fleetwood Town	-1.0		-3.1		+2.9		-1.1

Bristol City 2 Bradford 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-1.6		-1.5
Swindon	+0.3		+0.3
Preston	+0.3		+0.3
Milton Keynes D	+0.2		+0.2
Peterborough	+0.4		+0.4
Bradford	-0.3		-0.9		+0.5		-0.3

Sheff Utd 2 Yeovil 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Sheff Utd	+1.8		+4.6		-2.1		+1.2
Walsall					-0.4
Yeovil	-0.2		-1.1		+5.8		-1.0

Barnsley 2 Notts County 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Notts County	+1.9		+4.7		-2.1		+1.2
Barnsley	-0.5		-2.1		+4.2		-1.1

Bradford 0 Sheff Utd 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Sheff Utd	+1.5		+4.0		-3.1		+1.2
Bradford	-1.1		-3.2		+2.9		-1.1

Notts County 5 Crawley Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Notts County	+1.6		+4.1		-3.0		+1.2
Crawley Town	-0.4		-1.8		+5.0		-1.1

Yeovil 1 Swindon 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+0.3		*+0.2
Swindon	-1.0		-1.5				-0.2
Scunthorpe					*-0.2
Yeovil			-0.4		+1.2		-0.3

Colchester 2 Chesterfield 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Chesterfield	-1.2		-3.4		+2.4		-1.1
Colchester	+0.3		+1.3		-6.6		+1.2

Fleetwood Town 3 Doncaster 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Fleetwood Town	+0.9		+3.0		-4.3		+1.3
Doncaster	-0.9		-2.7		+3.6		-1.1

Leyton Orient 0 Milton Keynes D 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	*+0.2		*+0.2
Milton Keynes D	-0.8		-1.4		+0.2		-0.2
Leyton Orient			-0.5		+1.2		-0.3
Crewe					*-0.2

Oldham 4 Coventry 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Oldham	+1.1		+3.5		-3.2		+1.2
Coventry	-0.2		-1.1		+5.9		-1.0

Chesterfield 1 Oldham 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Oldham	-0.4		-1.0		+0.4		-0.3
Chesterfield	-0.5		-1.1		+0.3		-0.2

Doncaster 0 Leyton Orient 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Doncaster	-0.6		-2.1		+4.3		-1.1
Leyton Orient	+0.3		+1.5		-6.6		+1.2

Rochdale 1 Gillingham 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Rochdale	-0.4		-0.9		+0.3		-0.2
Gillingham			-0.5		+1.2		-0.3

Crawley Town 1 Walsall 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Walsall			-0.8		+6.7		-1.0
Crawley Town	+0.3		+1.6		-6.5		+1.2

Walsall 0 Crewe 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Walsall	-0.2		-1.2		+6.3		-1.0
Crewe			+0.5		-8.4		+1.0

Scunthorpe 1 Colchester 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Scunthorpe			-0.3		+1.4		-0.3
Colchester			-0.5		+1.1		-0.3

Port Vale 2 Scunthorpe 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Port Vale			-0.3		+1.2		-0.3
Scunthorpe			-0.3		+1.4		-0.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Football League One Title Chances 2014-2015 50/50

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