Football League One Title Chances 2014-2015

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Championship			Chance will finish season at seed																										League Two
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Bristol City	36		10	-	6	-	2	14	32.0	%	-11.8	63.4	%	-8.4	32	22	16	11	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.0	-0.43	0.0	%		1	.581	Bristol City
Swindon	35		10	-	5	-	3	15	21.8		+8.0	53.2		+11.2	22	20	17	13	9	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.6	+0.93	0.0		-0.0	2	.582	Swindon

Milton Keynes D	30	3	9	-	3	-	3	14	17.6		+6.2	46.4		+9.8	18	17	15	13	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.2	+0.95	0.0		-0.0	4	.570	Milton Keynes Dons
Preston	34		10	-	4	-	4	11	15.5		+7.1	44.7		+13.1	16	17	16	14	11	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.2	+1.29	0.0		-0.0	3	.564	Preston
Notts County	29	1	8	-	5	-	4	8	4.3		-4.3	21.9		-10.0	4	7	9	11	12	11	10	9	7	6	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7	-1.15	0.1		+0.1	9	.550	Notts County
Sheff Utd	30	1	9	-	3	-	5	4	3.5		-0.7	19.5		-1.5	3	6	8	10	11	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.0	-0.15	0.1		+0.0	5	.511	Sheff Utd

Rochdale	26	1	8	-	2	-	7	11	2.3		-2.9	15.6		-8.5	2	4	6	8	10	11	10	10	8	7	6	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.7	-1.29	0.3		+0.2	10	.558	Rochdale
Oldham	27		6	-	9	-	3	5	1.3		-0.0	11.0		+0.5	1	3	4	6	8	9	10	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8.7	+0.18	0.5		+0.1	6	.522	Oldham
Peterborough	27		8	-	3	-	7	5	0.9		-0.9	8.7		-4.1	1	2	3	5	7	8	9	10	9	9	8	7	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.4	-1.05	0.7		+0.4	12	.520	Peterborough
Fleetwood Town	25		7	-	4	-	7	2	0.3		-0.4	4.3		-3.0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	8	9	9	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	11.3	-1.40	2.3		+1.4	8	.501	Fleetwood Town
Chesterfield	24		6	-	6	-	6	0	0.2		+0.1	2.9		+1.2	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	12.3	+1.13	3.6		-1.7	7	.480	Chesterfield
Barnsley	22	1	6	-	4	-	7	-1	0.1		-0.1	2.3		-1.0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	13.0	-0.95	5.3		+2.4	14	.472	Barnsley
Bradford	23		6	-	5	-	7	-1	0.1		-0.0	1.7		-0.4	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	13.6	-0.58	6.6		+2.1	13	.471	Bradford
Port Vale	22		6	-	4	-	8	-2	0.0		-0.0	1.2		-0.6	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	14.4	-1.02	9.2		+3.9	15	.464	Port Vale
Walsall	22		5	-	7	-	6	-1	0.0		+0.0	1.1		+0.7	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	14.5	+1.53	9.6		-6.3	16	.467	Walsall
Doncaster	21	2	6	-	3	-	7	-6	0.0		+0.0	1.0		+0.7	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	2	1	15.0	+2.01	12.1		-10.7	11	.426	Doncaster
Leyton Orient	19		4	-	7	-	7	-3	0.0		+0.0	0.4		+0.3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	2	16.3	+1.49	18.6		-10.1	17	.456	Leyton Orient
Coventry	20		5	-	5	-	8	-7	0.0		+0.0	0.3		+0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	8	6	3	17.2	+1.03	24.7		-8.2	19	.425	Coventry
Crawley Town	21		5	-	6	-	7	-10	0.0		-0.0	0.2		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	7	4	17.8	-0.51	30.1		+5.6	18	.398	Crawley Town
Colchester	17		4	-	5	-	9	-4	0.0		-0.0	0.2		-0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	10	10	9	8	4	17.9	-1.50	31.3		+12.9	20	.450	Colchester

Gillingham	18		4	-	6	-	8	-7	0.0			0.1		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	10	6	18.7	-0.25	38.9		+3.7	23	.418	Gillingham
Scunthorpe	16	1	4	-	4	-	9	-11	0.0			0.1		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	12	13	13	9	19.5	-0.25	48.0		+3.9	22	.404	Scunthorpe
Yeovil	17		4	-	5	-	9	-14	0.0			0.0		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	5	6	8	11	16	22	21	21.2	+0.80	70.1		-9.8	21	.356	Yeovil
Crewe	15		4	-	3	-	11	-22	0.0			0.0		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	7	11	21	48	22.6	-0.80	87.7		+10.2	24	.321	Crewe

Week of 10/11
Bristol City 3 Chesterfield 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+5.6		+5.6				+0.4
Swindon	-1.0		-0.4
Milton Keynes D	-0.7		-0.3
Chesterfield	-1.7		-3.5		+0.3		-0.6

Crawley Town 1 Peterborough 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-0.7		-0.7
Peterborough	+2.3		+5.4		-0.3		+0.9
Crawley Town			-0.5		+4.9		-0.8

Barnsley 3 Bradford 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Barnsley			+1.1		-3.8		+1.0
Bradford	-1.0		-3.1		+0.6		-0.8

Colchester 2 Fleetwood Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Fleetwood Town	-0.5		-2.1		+1.2		-0.8
Colchester			+0.4		-6.1		+0.8

Sheff Utd 2 Leyton Orient 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Sheff Utd	-0.3		-1.3		+0.5		-0.4
Leyton Orient					*-0.1

Oldham 2 Walsall 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Oldham	+0.4		+1.8		-1.8		+0.9
Walsall			-0.6		+3.4		-0.7

Gillingham 0 Scunthorpe 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Gillingham			-0.7		+6.8		-1.1
Scunthorpe					-9.4		+0.8

Crewe 2 Coventry 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Coventry			-0.7		+4.5		-0.9
Crewe					-4.2		+0.4

Port Vale 4 Yeovil 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Port Vale					-7.1		+0.7
Yeovil			-0.2		+5.7		-0.7

Week of 10/18
Coventry 1 Bristol City 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+6.9		+5.9				+0.4
Swindon	-1.5		-0.8
Milton Keynes D	-1.1		-0.7
Preston	-0.9		-0.7
Peterborough	-1.3		-0.8
Coventry			-0.5		+4.9		-0.8

Bristol City 2 Bradford 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-3.7		-2.6
Swindon	+0.6		+0.4
Milton Keynes D	+0.5		+0.3
Preston	+0.7		+0.4
Peterborough	+0.9		+0.4
Bradford					-0.3

Crewe 1 Peterborough 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+1.6		+1.0
Swindon	+0.4		+0.9
Milton Keynes D	+0.3		+0.8
Preston	+0.4		+0.9
Peterborough	-3.5		-6.3				-0.6
Crewe					-7.8		+0.6

Swindon 2 Rochdale 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+1.0		+0.5
Swindon	-3.2		-6.7				-0.8
Rochdale	+0.9		+4.3		-0.8		+1.1

Gillingham 0 Preston 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-1.2		-0.8
Swindon	-0.3		-0.8
Preston	+2.9		+5.8				+0.7
Peterborough	-0.4		-0.9
Gillingham			-0.2		+5.8		-0.7
Scunthorpe					-0.6
Yeovil					-0.7

Peterborough 2 Barnsley 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-0.9		-0.6
Peterborough	+2.7		+5.0				+0.6
Barnsley	-0.2		-1.3		+1.6		-0.7

Preston 2 Port Vale 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-0.6		-0.5
Preston	+1.9		+4.1		-0.2		+0.6
Port Vale			-0.3		+3.7		-0.6

Milton Keynes D 2 Fleetwood Town 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	-0.7		-0.5
Milton Keynes D	+1.8		+4.5				+0.6
Fleetwood Town	-0.4		-2.1		+0.6		-0.6

Barnsley 2 Notts County 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Notts County	+1.7		+5.1		-0.2		+0.9
Barnsley			-1.1		+2.8		-0.9

Yeovil 1 Swindon 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+0.7		+0.4
Swindon	-1.4		-2.0				-0.2
Milton Keynes D			+0.2
Preston			+0.2
Peterborough	+0.2		+0.3
Yeovil					+1.2

Notts County 5 Crawley Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Notts County	+1.0		+3.0		-0.4		+0.6
Crawley Town			-0.2		+3.9		-0.5
Scunthorpe					-0.4
Yeovil					-0.4

Leyton Orient 0 Milton Keynes D 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City	+0.3		+0.2
Milton Keynes D	-0.7		-1.2
Leyton Orient			-0.3		+1.1		-0.3

Bradford 0 Sheff Utd 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Sheff Utd	+0.7		+3.4		-1.9		+1.3
Bradford	-0.6		-3.0		+1.6		-1.1

Colchester 2 Chesterfield 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Chesterfield	-0.6		-2.5		+0.5		-0.7
Colchester			+0.5		-4.7		+0.9

Chesterfield 1 Oldham 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Oldham			-0.2
Chesterfield	-0.5		-1.7		+0.2		-0.4

Sheff Utd 2 Yeovil 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Sheff Utd	+0.6		+2.5		-0.5		+0.7
Port Vale					-0.4
Walsall					-0.5
Crawley Town					-0.5
Scunthorpe					-0.5
Yeovil					+4.9		-0.5

Rochdale 1 Gillingham 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Rochdale	-0.6		-1.9		+0.3		-0.5
Gillingham					-0.6

Oldham 4 Coventry 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Oldham	+0.4		+2.0		-0.9		+0.8
Coventry			-0.2		+4.5		-0.6

Fleetwood Town 3 Doncaster 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Fleetwood Town	+0.2		+1.5		-1.8		+0.8
Doncaster			-0.7		+2.6		-0.7

Doncaster 0 Leyton Orient 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Doncaster			-0.6		+5.3		-1.0
Leyton Orient			+0.7		-5.7		+1.2

Walsall 0 Crewe 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Walsall			-0.5		+7.8		-1.1
Crewe					-7.4		+0.6

Scunthorpe 1 Colchester 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Colchester			-0.2		+0.4		-0.2
Scunthorpe					+2.3		-0.2

Crawley Town 1 Walsall 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Walsall			-0.2		+6.4		-0.8
Crawley Town			+0.2		-7.6		+0.9

Port Vale 2 Scunthorpe 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Port Vale					+2.9		-0.4
Scunthorpe					-0.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Football League One Title Chances 2014-2015

Big Games