Evo-StikNorthernPremier League Title Chances 2014-15

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																										Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

FC United	86	2	24	-	14	-	4	40	97.5	%	+0.9	98.1	%	+0.7	97	2	0	0	0																				1.0	+0.01	No			1	.709	FC United

Workington	81	1	24	-	9	-	10	19	1.7		+1.0	25.7		+1.2	2	41	28	18	10	2																			3.0	+0.55	No			5	.613	Workington
Ashton	78	2	22	-	12	-	8	20	0.8		-1.5	24.3		-2.1	1	34	28	19	13	5	0																		3.3	-0.45	No			3	.596	Ashton
Ilkeston	80		22	-	14	-	8	26	0.0		-0.4	23.0		-1.9	0	14	22	30	26	8																			3.9	-0.67	No			2	.617	Ilkeston
Curzon	75	2	21	-	12	-	9	29	0.0		+0.0	20.2		+1.6	0	9	17	24	30	19	1																		4.3	+0.46	No			6	.643	Curzon

Blyth	72	2	19	-	15	-	8	24	No			8.6		+0.6		1	4	10	21	59	7	0	0	0															5.5	+0.16	No			4	.610	Blyth
Barwell	72		21	-	9	-	14	7	No			0.1		-0.1				0	0	7	79	11	2	0															7.1	+0.45	No			7	.530	Barwell
Buxton	67		17	-	16	-	11	10	No			No		-0.0						0	10	37	31	23	0														8.7	-0.76	No			8	.545	Buxton
Skelmersdale	67		19	-	10	-	15	8	No			No		-0.0						0	3	30	35	32	0														9.0	-0.16	No			9	.543	Skelmersdale
Rushall	66		19	-	9	-	16	10	No			No		-0.0						0	1	22	32	45	0														9.2	+0.49	No			10	.541	Rushall
Halesowen	58		13	-	19	-	12	11	No			No													59	28	11	2	0	0	0	0							11.6	-0.07	No			12	.564	Halesowen
Grantham	58		15	-	13	-	16	-6	No			No													33	42	19	6	1	0	0	0							12.0	+1.06	No		-0.0	11	.466	Grantham
Ramsbottom	49	4	14	-	7	-	19	-9	No			No										0	0	0	6	14	19	16	13	9	7	6	4	3	1	0			14.6	-0.04	1.3	%	-0.4	14	.452	Ramsbottom
Stourbridge	53	1	14	-	11	-	18	-8	No			No													1	7	16	21	20	14	11	6	2	0	0	0			14.9	-0.15	0.0		-0.2	15	.455	Stourbridge
Whitby	52	1	12	-	16	-	15	-9	No			No													1	7	16	19	17	14	10	8	5	2	0	0			15.2	-0.07	0.1		-0.5	13	.446	Whitby
Nantwich	51	1	15	-	6	-	22	-15	No			No													0	2	7	11	13	16	17	14	11	7	1	0			16.5	-0.64	1.0		+0.3	16	.423	Nantwich
Kings Lynn	52		14	-	10	-	20	-18	No			No														1	6	11	15	18	16	15	13	5	0	0			16.5	-0.76	0.3		-0.1	19	.413	Kings Lynn
Matlock	49	1	13	-	10	-	20	-6	No			No														1	4	7	11	12	14	16	15	14	6	1			17.4	+0.14	6.5		+0.1	17	.461	Matlock
Frickley	48	1	12	-	12	-	19	-11	No			No															1	3	5	8	11	14	18	23	12	4			18.5	+1.06	15.9		-20.6	20	.442	Frickley
Witton	49	1	14	-	7	-	22	-22	No			No														0	1	2	4	7	10	15	19	18	18	5			18.8	+0.13	23.7		-0.9	21	.392	Witton

Stamford	47		12	-	11	-	21	-18	No			No																0	0	0	2	4	8	19	37	29			20.7	-0.41	66.5		+12.1	18	.404	Stamford
Marine	44	1	10	-	14	-	19	-12	No			No																0	0	0	1	2	3	9	24	60			21.3	-0.33	84.7		+10.2	22	.432	Marine
Trafford	27	3	4	-	15	-	22	-32	No			No																									78	22	23.2	-0.01	Yes			23	.355	Trafford
Belper	25	1	4	-	13	-	26	-38	No			No																									22	78	23.8	+0.01	Yes			24	.342	Belper

Week of 4/11
Barwell 1 Ashton 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United	+1.6		+1.2
Ashton	-1.8		-1.7				-0.4
Ilkeston							+0.2
Barwell			+0.2				+0.4
Buxton							-0.2

Witton 0 FC United 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United	-1.5		-1.1
Workington	+0.3		+0.2
Ashton	+1.0		+0.8
Matlock					+0.3
Frickley					+1.4
Witton					-3.6		+0.1
Stamford					+0.8
Marine					+0.8

Grantham 1 Ilkeston 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Workington							+0.2
Ashton							+0.2
Ilkeston	-0.4		-0.9				-0.5
Halesowen							-0.2
Grantham							+1.0
Ramsbottom							-0.2
Stourbridge							-0.2
Whitby							-0.2

Belper 1 Workington 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United	-0.3		-0.2
Workington	+0.4		+1.0				+0.3
Curzon			-0.2
Blyth			-0.4

Curzon 4 Kings Lynn 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Curzon			+2.4				+0.3
Blyth			-1.9
Skelmersdale			No
Kings Lynn							-0.7

Blyth 2 Nantwich 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Workington			-0.4
Curzon			-1.8
Blyth			+2.7				+0.3
Nantwich					+0.5		-0.7

Buxton 0 Rushall 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton							-0.6
Rushall							+0.5

Trafford 2 Frickley 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich					+0.4
Matlock					+1.8
Frickley					-18.8		+0.9
Witton					+4.4		-0.2
Stamford					+6.4		-0.2
Marine					+5.1

Stamford 1 Whitby 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom					-0.2
Whitby					-0.5		-0.2
Nantwich					-0.2
Matlock					-0.6
Frickley					-1.7
Witton					-1.7
Stamford					+5.9		-0.3
Marine					-0.7

Stourbridge 2 Marine 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom					-0.2
Stourbridge							-0.3
Nantwich					-0.2
Matlock					-0.6
Frickley					-1.5
Witton					-1.3
Stamford					-1.3
Marine					+5.5		-0.2

Ramsbottom 1 Halesowen 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom					-0.4		-0.1

Skelmersdale vs FC UnitedIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United	93.797.499.5		95.398.199.7
Ilkeston	0.0NoNo
Curzon	0.10.0No		20.220.220.1

Workington vs TraffordHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston	No0.00.0		22.923.123.1				4.03.83.7

Ramsbottom vs AshtonHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom					0.00.82.3		13.414.615.4

Marine vs CurzonHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Curzon	NoNo0.1		15.918.822.7				5.04.73.9
Matlock					10.55.94.9		17.517.417.4
Frickley					22.615.812.9		18.718.518.5
Witton					28.122.722.1		19.018.818.8
Stamford					73.265.164.0		21.020.720.6
Marine					60.688.194.4		20.521.421.7

Curzon vs RamsbottomHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Curzon	0.1NoNo		22.618.615.7				3.94.75.1
Ramsbottom					2.10.70.0		15.214.513.3

Nantwich vs WhitbyHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby					0.20.0No		16.415.213.9
Nantwich					No0.32.5		15.016.817.8

Blyth vs MatlockHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth			12.35.93.6				5.25.86.0
Matlock					10.83.80.1		18.217.415.8

Belper vs FrickleyHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Frickley					33.518.52.0		19.819.017.4
Witton					19.323.726.8		18.618.819.0
Stamford					60.265.471.5		20.620.720.8
Marine					80.083.788.5		21.321.321.4

Week of 4/18
FC United vs StamfordIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United	99.396.491.8		99.597.393.8				1.01.01.1
Ilkeston	NoNo0.1
Curzon	No0.10.2		20.120.220.3
Matlock					5.06.912.0		17.417.417.6
Frickley					13.117.125.6		18.518.518.8
Witton					21.523.133.2		18.818.819.1
Stamford					75.963.832.5		21.120.719.4
Marine					83.086.089.7		21.321.421.6

FC United vs StourbridgeHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United	99.496.792.3		99.597.594.2				1.01.01.1
Ilkeston	NoNo0.1
Curzon	No0.00.2		20.1*20.220.3
Stourbridge					0.0NoNo		15.414.713.4

Ilkeston vs WorkingtonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Workington	0.20.73.9		24.025.328.0				3.72.92.3
Ilkeston	0.0NoNo		24.922.821.0				3.14.24.7

Whitby vs AshtonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby					No0.00.2		13.815.215.9

Ashton vs WittonHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Frickley					14.216.819.3		18.418.518.8
Witton					33.221.71.3		19.518.817.1
Stamford					62.066.378.2		20.620.720.9

Curzon vs HalesowenHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Curzon	0.1NoNo		23.019.316.4				3.84.65.0

Stourbridge vs BuxtonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stourbridge					NoNo0.0		13.615.015.8

Trafford vs BlythHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth			3.45.611.8				6.05.85.3

Ramsbottom vs TraffordHomeDrawAway
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom					0.01.33.4		13.715.115.8

Rushall vs NantwichHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich					2.00.2No		17.316.414.9

Ramsbottom vs FrickleyHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom					0.00.93.1		13.614.815.8
Frickley					28.615.11.4		19.618.817.1
Witton					20.824.526.6		18.718.819.0
Stamford					62.566.871.0		20.620.720.8
Marine					81.684.788.2		21.321.321.4

Barwell vs RamsbottomHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ramsbottom					2.40.90.0		15.414.713.4

Witton vs BlythHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth			3.55.812.1				6.05.85.2
Frickley					19.316.714.1		18.818.518.4
Witton					1.322.434.2		17.118.919.6
Stamford					78.265.861.5		20.920.720.6

Matlock vs Kings LynnHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kings Lynn					0.60.1No		17.616.414.9
Matlock					0.15.715.8		16.117.918.9
Stamford					68.767.063.1		20.820.720.6

Marine vs BelperHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Frickley					19.114.012.1		18.618.518.4
Stamford					69.863.863.1		20.920.620.5
Marine					73.293.397.1		20.921.621.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Evo-StikNorthernPremier League Title Chances 2014-15

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