Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2013-2014

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																										Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Chorley	94		28	-	10	-	7	66	75.9	%	+3.3	81.9	%	+2.4	76	24																							1.2	+0.10	No			1	.767	Chorley

FC United	93		28	-	9	-	8	53	24.1		-0.5	43.1		-0.4	24	62	14																						1.9	+0.15	No			2	.702	FC United of Manchester
AFC Fylde	90		27	-	9	-	9	55	No		-1.9	25.0		-1.4		14	74	12																					3.0	+0.17	No			4	.734	AFC Fylde
Worksop Town	88		27	-	7	-	11	35	No		-0.9	25.0		-0.6			12	88																					3.9	-0.42	No			5	.603	Worksop Town
Ashton United	80		24	-	8	-	13	33	No			25.0		+0.3					100																				5.0	+0.01	No			6	.632	Ashton United

Rushall Olympic	75		21	-	12	-	12	15	No			No								82	18																		6.2	+0.55	No			3	.561	Rushall Olympic
Skelmersdale	74		23	-	5	-	17	9	No			No		-0.3						18	82																		6.8	-0.44	No			9	.530	Skelmersdale United
Blyth Spartans	69		19	-	12	-	14	0	No			No										43	15	23	15	3													9.2	-0.81	No			10	.496	Blyth Spartans
Trafford	68		20	-	8	-	17	7	No			No										27	25	17	21	11													9.7	+0.49	No			12	.527	Trafford
Whitby Town	67		17	-	16	-	12	17	No			No										15	29	24	16	16													9.9	+0.93	No			7	.570	Whitby Town
Matlock Town	67		18	-	13	-	14	11	No			No										7	18	21	18	37													10.6	-0.83	No			8	.558	Matlock Town
Kings Lynn Town	68		20	-	8	-	17	0	No			No										8	13	15	31	33													10.7	+0.45	No			11	.496	Kings Lynn Town
Buxton	62		16	-	14	-	15	5	No			No															50	38	12										13.6	+0.21	No			14	.522	Buxton
Barwell	62		17	-	11	-	17	-2	No			No															33	48	20										13.9	+1.46	No			13	.486	Barwell
Grantham Town	60		17	-	9	-	19	-1	No			No															17	14	44	21	3								14.8	-0.52	No			15	.492	Grantham Town
Stamford	58		17	-	7	-	21	-9	No			No																	20	38	26	14	3						16.4	-0.38	No			17	.459	Stamford
Witton Albion	57		16	-	9	-	20	-6	No			No																	4	17	29	35	15						17.4	-0.40	No			19	.471	Witton Albion
Ilkeston FC	56		16	-	8	-	21	1	No			No																		16	22	29	33						17.8	+0.22	No			18	.500	Ilkeston FC
Nantwich Town	55		14	-	13	-	18	6	No			No																		9	20	22	49						18.1	-0.91	No			16	.522	Nantwich Town
Marine	50		12	-	14	-	19	-11	No			No																						100					20.0	+0.02	No		-4.9	20	.447	Marine

Frickley Athletic	46		11	-	13	-	21	-20	No			No																							100				21.0	-0.05	Yes		+4.9	21	.406	Frickley Athletic
Stafford Rangers	35		9	-	8	-	28	-55	No			No																								100			22.0		Yes			22	.295	Stafford Rangers
Stocksbridge	23		5	-	8	-	32	-66	No			No																									100		23.0		Yes			23	.283	Stocksbridge Park Steels
Droylsden	6		1	-	3	-	41	-143	No			No																										100	24.0		Yes			24	.143	Droylsden

Week of 4/12
FC United 1 Buxton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	+12.3		+9.3				+0.2
FC United	-15.7		-11.8				-0.4
Buxton					No		+1.4

Chorley 3 Stocksbridge 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	+7.8		+5.9
FC United	-5.1		-3.8
AFC Fylde	-2.6		-1.9

AFC Fylde 5 Blyth Spartans 1
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-3.6		-2.7
AFC Fylde	+4.8		+3.6				+0.3

FC United 3 Grantham Town 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-3.4		-2.6
FC United	+4.3		+3.2				+0.3
Grantham Town							-0.6

Marine 0 Worksop Town 1
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine					+3.2		-0.4
Frickley Athletic					-3.1

Grantham Town 3 Rushall Olympic 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Grantham Town					No		+1.1

Stafford Rangers 1 Ashton United 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United			+2.5				+0.2
Whitby Town			*No

Nantwich Town 1 Blyth Spartans 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich Town							-0.3

Frickley Athletic 1 Marine 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					No
Stamford					No
Marine					-4.3		-0.2
Frickley Athletic					+5.2

Witton Albion 0 Trafford 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion					+0.1		-1.0

Droylsden 0 Stamford 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stamford					No		+0.6

Whitby Town 1 Buxton 0
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town							+0.9
Buxton							-0.9

Matlock Town 2 Whitby Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town							-0.8

Week of 4/19
FC United 3 Ashton United 2
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-16.4		-12.3				-0.2
FC United	+18.2		+13.6				+0.4
Skelmersdale			+0.3

Chorley 4 Marine 0
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	+14.5		+10.9				+0.2
FC United	-11.8		-8.8
AFC Fylde	No		-1.4
Worksop Town	No		-0.6
Marine					+1.8
Frickley Athletic					-1.8

AFC Fylde 1 Grantham Town 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	+8.2		+6.2
AFC Fylde	-11.0		-8.2				-0.5
Grantham Town							+1.3

Whitby Town 1 Chorley 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-7.0		-5.3
FC United	+3.1		+2.4
AFC Fylde	+3.8		+2.9

Stamford 2 FC United 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	-4.3		-3.3
FC United	+6.0		+4.5				+0.3
Stamford							-0.6

Skelmersdale 0 AFC Fylde 5
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Fylde	+1.7		+1.3				+0.4
Skelmersdale			No				-0.2

Ilkeston FC 0 Worksop Town 0
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worksop Town	-0.8		-0.6

Worksop Town 3 Blyth Spartans 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth Spartans			No				-0.5

Ashton United 4 Skelmersdale 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United			+4.5				+0.2
Rushall Olympic			No
Skelmersdale			-4.4				-0.3
Blyth Spartans			No

Rushall Olympic 4 Frickley Athletic 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Rushall Olympic			+0.1				+0.4
Witton Albion					No
Ilkeston FC					No
Nantwich Town					No
Marine					-5.4
Frickley Athletic					+6.5

Marine 2 Ilkeston FC 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston FC					No		+0.8
Marine					+6.8		-0.5
Frickley Athletic					-5.8

Frickley Athletic 2 Stocksbridge 2
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine					No
Frickley Athletic					Yes

Barwell 0 Witton Albion 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Barwell							-1.0
Witton Albion					No		+1.0

Nantwich Town 1 Matlock Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich Town					No		-0.2

Kings Lynn Town 2 Stamford 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stamford							-1.0

Grantham Town 0 Barwell 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Barwell							+1.5
Grantham Town							-1.3

Witton Albion 2 Rushall Olympic 4
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion							-0.9

Stafford Rangers 1 Nantwich Town 0
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich Town							-1.2

Blyth Spartans 0 Whitby Town 7
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town							+1.1

Buxton 4 Droylsden 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton							+0.5

Week of 4/26
Buxton vs ChorleyIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	41.245.5Yes		55.959.2Yes				1.61.51.0
FC United	58.854.5No		69.165.825.0				1.61.62.1

Barwell vs FC UnitedHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley	Yes95.857.4		Yes96.968.1				1.01.01.4
FC United	No4.242.6		25.028.156.9				2.62.01.6

Ashton United vs Witton AlbionHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion							18.017.416.1

AFC Fylde vs Kings Lynn TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kings Lynn Town							11.410.38.7

Trafford vs Ilkeston FCHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Trafford							8.49.911.0
Ilkeston FC							18.717.916.6

Stamford vs Blyth SpartansHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth Spartans							10.19.78.0
Stamford							15.516.617.3

Nantwich Town vs Grantham TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Grantham Town							15.615.113.6
Nantwich Town							17.218.619.0

Whitby Town vs Stafford RangersHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town							9.110.511.7

Marine vs Matlock TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town							12.010.99.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2013-2014

Big Games