Skrill North Title Chances 2013-2014

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																								Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Brackley Town	18		5	-	3	-	0	10	25.1	%	-6.7	38.0	%	-6.1	25	18	14	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.8	-0.40	0.0	%		3	.568	Brackley Town

Hednesford Town	19		6	-	1	-	1	10	19.0		+6.9	31.8		+8.3	19	16	14	12	9	8	6	5	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.4	+1.12	0.1		-0.1	5	.533	Hednesford Town
Solihull Moors	18		5	-	3	-	0	8	17.6		+6.2	30.3		+7.6	18	16	14	12	10	8	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.6	+1.09	0.1		-0.2	2	.543	Solihull Moors
Altrincham	17	1	5	-	2	-	0	8	13.2		-1.4	25.0		-1.5	13	13	12	11	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.3	-0.15	0.1		-0.0	6	.520	Altrincham
North Ferriby U	16		5	-	1	-	2	7	8.5		+2.9	19.2		+4.9	9	10	11	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.1	+1.15	0.2		-0.5	1	.512	North Ferriby United

Boston United	15		4	-	3	-	1	6	5.3		-1.0	13.9		-1.4	5	7	8	9	10	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	7.2	-0.16	0.5		-0.1	7	.511	Boston United
Histon	14		4	-	2	-	2	3	3.7		-3.2	11.1		-5.3	4	6	7	8	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	7.8	-1.11	0.8		+0.3	4	.494	Histon
Harrogate Town	13		4	-	1	-	3	6	3.7		-3.8	11.0		-6.2	4	6	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	7.9	-1.31	0.8		+0.3	11	.515	Harrogate Town
AFC Telford Utd	11	1	3	-	2	-	2	1	1.5		-0.2	5.8		-0.5	1	3	4	5	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	9.9	-0.07	2.6		-0.3	10	.472	AFC Telford Utd
Bradford Park A	12		3	-	3	-	2	-1	0.7		+0.3	3.5		+1.4	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	2	1	1	11.3	+1.68	4.4		-5.5	12	.458	Bradford Park Avenue
Vauxhall Motors	11		3	-	2	-	3	-1	0.6		+0.2	3.1		+1.1	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	7	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	11.5	+1.45	5.0		-5.2	8	.455	Vauxhall Motors
Colwyn Bay	10		2	-	4	-	2	-1	0.3		-0.1	2.0		-0.4	0	1	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	4	4	3	2	12.7	-0.11	8.0		-0.8	19	.455	Colwyn Bay
Stalybridge Cel	10		3	-	1	-	4	-5	0.2		+0.1	1.6		+0.6	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	13.2	+1.59	9.9		-9.0	9	.431	Stalybridge Celtic
Gloucester City	9		2	-	3	-	3	-3	0.2		-0.1	1.3		-0.2	0	0	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	7	7	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	4	3	13.7	+0.01	11.7		-1.3	15	.441	Gloucester City
Workington	7		2	-	1	-	5	-4	0.1		-0.1	0.6		-0.7	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	6	15.4	-1.23	20.8		+5.6	18	.431	Workington
Barrow	6		1	-	3	-	4	-4	0.0		-0.0	0.4		-0.2	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	9	9	8	7	15.9	-0.16	24.3		-0.3	17	.424	Barrow
Guiseley	8		2	-	2	-	4	-8	0.0		-0.1	0.3		-0.6	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	16.3	-1.55	27.2		+9.1	14	.394	Guiseley
Leamington	5		1	-	2	-	5	-4	0.0		-0.1	0.3		-0.4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	10	16.6	-1.11	30.5		+7.2	16	.419	Leamington
Oxford City	4		0	-	4	-	4	-6	0.0		-0.0	0.3		-0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	9	10	11	11	16.7	-0.12	31.8		-0.5	13	.423	Oxford City

Worcester City	4		0	-	4	-	4	-5	0.0		-0.0	0.2		-0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	12	17.0		34.4		-1.5	20	.421	Worcester City
Stockport County	5		1	-	2	-	5	-8	0.0		-0.0	0.2		-0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	13	14	17.5	-0.74	38.6		+5.7	21	.405	Stockport County
Gainsborough Tr	4		1	-	1	-	6	-9	0.0		-0.0	0.1		-0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	10	12	15	21	18.3	+0.14	48.2		-2.8	22	.400	Gainsborough Trinity

Week of 9/14
Histon 0 Hednesford Town 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	-0.6		-0.5
Hednesford Town	+4.4		+5.5				+0.8
Histon	-2.5		-3.8		+0.3		-0.8

Brackley Town 3 Stalybridge Cel 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	+4.1		+4.4				+0.5
Hednesford Town	-0.4		-0.4
Solihull Moors	-0.4		-0.4
Altrincham	-0.9		-0.8
North Ferriby U	-0.6		-0.5
Harrogate Town	-0.6		-0.5
Stalybridge Cel	-0.2		-0.6		+2.3		-0.6

Harrogate Town 0 Histon 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Histon	+2.3		+4.0		-0.8		+1.1
Harrogate Town	-4.0		-5.1		+0.2		-0.8

Leamington 0 Solihull Moors 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	-1.0		-0.8
Solihull Moors	+3.4		+4.4				+0.7
Altrincham	-0.5		-0.6
Barrow					-0.5
Leamington			-0.3		+4.9		-0.7
Oxford City					-0.5
Worcester City					-0.5
Stockport County					-0.5
Gainsborough Tr					-0.6

Solihull Moors 2 North Ferriby U 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Solihull Moors	+2.5		+3.6		-0.3		+0.8
North Ferriby U	-2.6		-3.5		+0.2		-0.6

Altrincham 2 Oxford City 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	+0.6		+0.5
Hednesford Town	+0.3		+0.3
Solihull Moors	+0.3		+0.3
Altrincham	-2.4		-2.5				-0.3
North Ferriby U	+0.3		+0.3
Harrogate Town	+0.4		+0.3
Oxford City					-0.2

Hednesford Town 2 Vauxhall Motors 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hednesford Town	+2.3		+3.4		-0.3		+0.7
Vauxhall Motors	-0.4		-1.1		+1.5		-0.7

Stalybridge Cel 3 Harrogate Town 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	+0.6		+0.5
Harrogate Town	-2.2		-3.5		+0.3		-0.7
Stalybridge Cel			+0.5		-5.5		+1.0
Worcester City					+0.6
Gainsborough Tr					+0.6

Gloucester City 2 Brackley Town 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	-2.1		-1.9				-0.1
Hednesford Town	+0.4		+0.3
Solihull Moors	+0.3		+0.3
Altrincham	+0.4		+0.3
North Ferriby U	+0.2		+0.2
Boston United	+0.2		+0.2
Histon	+0.3		+0.3
Harrogate Town	+0.2		+0.2
Gloucester City			-0.2		+0.2		-0.1

North Ferriby U 3 Workington 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	-0.5		-0.4
North Ferriby U	+1.7		+2.9		-0.3		+0.7
Workington			-0.4		+3.1		-0.7
Gainsborough Tr					-0.4

Bradford Park A 3 AFC Telford Utd 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Telford Utd	-1.3		-2.5		+0.7		-0.8
Bradford Park A			+0.6		-4.8		+0.9

Boston United 3 Guiseley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Boston United	+1.2		+2.3		-0.7		+0.8
Guiseley	-0.2		-0.7		+2.3		-0.7

Oxford City 1 Boston United 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	+0.2		+0.2
Boston United	-0.7		-1.0				-0.2
Oxford City					+1.3		-0.2
Worcester City					-0.2
Stockport County					-0.2
Gainsborough Tr					-0.2

Workington 4 Gloucester City 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester City	-0.3		-0.9		+2.5		-0.8
Workington			+0.3		-6.4		+0.8

Guiseley 0 Bradford Park A 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bradford Park A	+0.2		+0.9		-3.7		+1.1
Guiseley			-0.4		+5.2		-0.9

Vauxhall Motors 2 Stockport County 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Vauxhall Motors	+0.2		+0.7		-3.2		+0.8
Stockport County					+5.2		-0.6

Colwyn Bay 0 Worcester City 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Colwyn Bay	-0.2		-0.5		+0.8		-0.4
Worcester City					+0.2		-0.1

Gainsborough Tr 2 Barrow 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Barrow			-0.4		+4.6		-0.8
Gainsborough Tr					-7.6		+0.6

Barrow 1 Colwyn Bay 1
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Colwyn Bay			-0.2		+0.1		-0.1
Barrow					+1.6		-0.3

Stockport County 1 Leamington 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington					+0.3		-0.1
Stockport County					+1.9		-0.3

Worcester City 2 Gainsborough Tr 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worcester City					+2.4		-0.3
Gainsborough Tr					+0.3		-0.1

Week of 9/21
Harrogate Town vs Brackley TownIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brackley Town	20.123.931.4		32.936.944.4				4.33.93.3
Harrogate Town	5.53.22.2		14.210.28.2		0.40.81.2		7.18.18.7

Guiseley vs Hednesford TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hednesford Town	14.517.223.4		26.729.936.6				5.04.63.9
Guiseley			0.60.30.2		20.027.732.1		15.316.416.9

Bradford Park A vs Solihull MoorsHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Solihull Moors	13.516.322.3		25.629.035.6				5.14.73.9
Bradford Park A	1.20.60.4		5.03.12.4		2.64.56.0		10.311.412.1

North Ferriby U vs AltrinchamHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Altrincham	10.012.618.0		21.024.430.8				5.85.34.5
North Ferriby U	11.47.45.5		23.317.814.9		0.10.20.4		5.46.36.8

Altrincham vs Gloucester CityHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Altrincham	16.211.49.4		28.722.920.1		0.10.10.2		4.75.56.0
Gloucester City	0.10.20.4		0.91.22.1		14.211.57.3		14.313.712.6

Gloucester City vs Boston UnitedHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Boston United	3.74.77.3		11.013.017.4		0.8*0.50.2		7.97.36.3
Gloucester City	0.30.10.1		1.91.10.8		7.912.315.1		12.713.914.5

Boston United vs Bradford Park AHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Boston United	6.94.43.4		16.812.510.5		0.20.50.8		6.57.58.0
Bradford Park A	0.40.71.3		2.53.35.2		5.64.32.4		11.911.310.1

Barrow vs HistonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Histon	2.53.25.3		8.710.414.1		1.2*0.80.4		8.68.07.0
Barrow			0.70.40.2		18.225.429.7		15.016.116.6

AFC Telford Utd vs Colwyn BayHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Telford Utd	2.11.20.9		7.45.04.0		1.52.83.9		9.110.210.9
Colwyn Bay	0.20.30.6		1.41.93.0		10.28.04.8		13.412.811.6

AFC Telford Utd vs Worcester CityHomeDrawAway
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Telford Utd	2.11.20.9		7.35.04.0		1.52.94.0		9.110.310.9
Worcester City			0.10.20.4		39.434.526.0		17.617.116.1

Vauxhall Motors vs Oxford CityHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Vauxhall Motors	0.90.50.3		4.12.62.1		3.25.67.6		10.711.912.5
Oxford City			0.10.20.5		36.731.923.6		17.316.815.8

Stalybridge Cel vs Stockport CountyHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stalybridge Cel	0.40.20.1		2.11.30.9		6.710.914.1		12.413.614.2
Stockport County			0.10.10.3		44.238.829.5		18.017.516.5

Worcester City vs WorkingtonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Workington			0.40.50.9		25.721.014.2		16.115.514.4
Worcester City			0.30.20.1		27.336.542.1		16.317.317.8

Leamington vs Gainsborough TrHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington			0.40.20.1		23.932.838.6		15.916.917.5
Gainsborough Tr			0.00.10.2		54.648.538.2		18.818.417.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Skrill North Title Chances 2013-2014

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