Pittsburgh Pirates Playoff Chances 2012-3WC 50/50

Beat Cincinnati 2-1, playoff odds up 3.6 to 34.7%

25-25 .500

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh 2 Cincinnati 1	+3.4		+0.4
Giants 1 Arizona 4	+0.2
Colorado 13 Houston 5	+0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Milwaukee vs Pittsburgh	-3.4+3.4		-0.4+0.4
Houston vs Cincinnati	+0.2-0.2
Giants vs Cubs	-0.2+0.2
Mets vs St. Louis	+0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

103	-137				In		100																217	*
102		77	-	35	In		98	2															60
101		76	-	36	In		100																126
100		75	-	37	In		98	2															247
99		74	-	38	In		96	3		1													495
98		73	-	39	In		95	5		0													963
97		72	-	40	In		93	7		0													1,774
96		71	-	41	In		88	11	0	1													2,911
95		70	-	42	In		81	17	0	2	0												4,877
94		69	-	43	In		74	22	1	2	0												8,129
93		68	-	44	In		64	29	3	4	0												12,518
92		67	-	45	In		51	37	5	6	0												19,280
91		66	-	46	In		37	42	10	10	1	0											28,192
90		65	-	47	100.0	%	25	43	16	14	2	0	0	0									39,504
89		64	-	48	100.0		13	39	24	19	4	0	0										53,324
88		63	-	49	99.9		6	31	30	22	9	1	0	0									69,187
87		62	-	50	99.3		2	21	34	21	16	5	1	0	0								86,902
86		61	-	51	96.7		0	11	34	17	23	12	3	0	0	0							106,443
85		60	-	52	88.9		0	4	29	10	24	22	9	2	0	0							124,280
84		59	-	53	71.7		0	1	21	4	18	28	20	7	1	0	0						141,210
83		58	-	54	45.7		0	0	13	1	8	23	29	18	6	1	0	0	0				154,211
82		57	-	55	21.1			0	7	0	2	12	26	29	17	5	1	0	0				162,384
81		56	-	56	7.1			0	3	0	0	4	14	28	29	16	4	1	0	0			165,998
80		55	-	57	1.8			0	1	0	0	1	5	16	30	29	15	4	0	0			162,353
79		54	-	58	0.4				0		0	0	1	6	19	31	28	13	3	0	0		154,058
78		53	-	59	0.1				0			0	0	1	7	21	33	26	10	2	0	0	140,974
77		52	-	60	0.0				0		0	0	0	0	2	9	25	34	23	7	1	0	124,263
76		51	-	61	0.0				0				0	0	0	3	13	29	34	18	4	0	106,013
75		50	-	62	Out									0	0	1	5	18	35	30	10	1	87,407
74		49	-	63	Out										0	0	1	8	27	38	21	4	69,443
73		48	-	64	Out											0	0	3	16	37	34	9	53,110
72		47	-	65	Out												0	1	8	30	43	18	39,609
71		46	-	66	Out												0	0	3	21	46	30	28,156
70		45	-	67	Out													0	1	13	44	42	19,091
69		44	-	68	Out													0	0	7	38	55	12,693
68		43	-	69	Out												0		0	3	29	68	7,983
67		42	-	70	Out														0	1	21	77	4,939
66		41	-	71	Out															1	15	85	2,929
65		40	-	72	Out															0	11	89	1,683
64		39	-	73	Out															0	8	92	935
63		38	-	74	Out																5	95	493
62		37	-	75	Out																3	97	234
61		36	-	76	Out																	100	111
60		35	-	77	Out																2	98	66
59		34	-	78	Out																	100	30
58		33	-	79	Out																11	89	9
25	-57				Out																	100	186	*

Total:					34.7	%	3	6	10	4	5	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	6	4	2	2,200,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

Friday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 12 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

25	-137

Total: