Liga BBVA Title Chances 2012-2013

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												UEFA CL			Chance will finish season at seed																						Liga Adelante
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Barcelona	68	1	22	-	2	-	1	54	98.3	%	-0.0	100.0	%		98	2	0	0	0	0															1.0		No			1	.735	FC Barcelona
Atlético Madrid	56	1	18	-	2	-	5	25	1.3		-0.0	99.9		+0.0	1	60	38	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0									2.4	-0.01	No			2	.673	Atlético Madrid
Real Madrid	52	1	16	-	4	-	5	39	0.5		+0.0	99.8		+0.0	0	38	59	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						2.6	+0.01	No			3	.722	Real Madrid
Málaga	42	1	12	-	6	-	7	13	0.0			43.5		-0.3	0	0	2	42	25	15	8	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		5.2	-0.03	0.0	%		5	.605	Málaga

Real Sociedad	40	1	11	-	7	-	7	10	0.0			25.5		-0.2	0	0	1	25	23	18	13	9	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.0	-0.05	0.0			4	.566	Real Sociedad
Valencia	41	1	12	-	5	-	8	-1	0.0			15.4		-0.5	0	0	0	15	20	20	16	11	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		6.6	-0.09	0.0			6	.485	Valencia
Real Betis	39	1	12	-	3	-	10	-1	0.0			9.0		+0.1	0	0	0	9	16	19	18	14	10	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.1	-0.04	0.0		-0.0	7	.485	Real Betis
Rayo Vallecano	37	1	12	-	1	-	12	-9	0.0			2.9			0	0	0	3	6	9	12	14	14	13	11	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	-0.07	0.0		-0.0	8	.430	Rayo Vallecano
Getafe	38		11	-	5	-	10	-7	No			2.0		+0.9		0	0	2	5	7	11	14	15	15	13	10	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.2	+0.79	0.0		-0.1	9	.445	Getafe
Levante	34	1	10	-	4	-	11	-8	No			0.9		-0.0		0	0	1	3	5	9	12	14	15	14	12	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	9.9	-0.07	0.1		-0.0	11	.430	Levante
Real Valladolid	33	1	9	-	6	-	10	1	No			0.6		-0.0		0	0	1	2	4	6	10	13	15	16	14	10	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	10.5	-0.09	0.1		-0.0	10	.500	Real Valladolid
Sevilla	32	1	9	-	5	-	11	-3	No			0.4		+0.0		0	0	0	1	3	5	8	11	13	15	16	13	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	11.0	-0.04	0.3		-0.1	12	.470	Sevilla
Espanyol	31	1	8	-	7	-	10	-4	No			0.1		-0.0		0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	11	15	19	16	11	6	3	1	0	0	12.7	-0.02	1.6		-0.2	14	.460	Espanyol
Osasuna	28	1	7	-	7	-	11	-5	No			0.0				0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	8	13	17	17	15	11	6	1	0	14.4	+0.02	7.8		-0.7	17	.438	Osasuna
Granada	26	1	7	-	5	-	13	-12	No			0.0					0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	14	17	18	16	12	4	0	15.3	+0.02	16.3		-0.9	13	.387	Granada
Athletic Bilbao	26	1	7	-	5	-	13	-20	No			0.0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	11	15	18	19	18	7	1	16.0	+0.07	25.6		-1.7	15	.358	Athletic Bilbao
Real Zaragoza	25		7	-	4	-	15	-13	No			0.0		-0.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	9	14	18	20	20	9	2	16.3	-0.54	30.9		+7.8	16	.383	Real Zaragoza

Celta	23	1	6	-	5	-	14	-8	No			0.0					0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	9	13	17	20	20	10	3	16.4	+0.09	32.4		-2.5	18	.417	Celta Vigo
Real Mallorca	18	1	4	-	6	-	15	-24	No			0.0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	14	41	34	18.9	+0.04	89.2		-1.0	19	.321	Real Mallorca
Deportivo	16	1	3	-	7	-	15	-27	No			0.0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	8	29	59	19.4	+0.02	95.6		-0.5	20	.328	Deportiva La Coruña

Week of 2/23
Barcelona 2 Sevilla 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Barcelona	+0.7		Yes
Atlético Madrid	-0.5
Real Madrid	-0.2
Sevilla			-0.2				-0.3

Atlético Madrid 1 Espanyol 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Barcelona	-0.3
Atlético Madrid	+0.3
Espanyol					+0.2		-0.3

Deportivo 1 Real Madrid 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Barcelona	-0.2
Real Madrid	+0.2		+0.3
Osasuna					-0.4
Granada					-0.2
Athletic Bilbao					-0.4
Real Zaragoza					-0.3
Celta					-0.4
Real Mallorca					-0.3
Deportivo			*No		+2.1		-0.1

Real Betis 3 Málaga 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Málaga			-10.6				-0.3
Real Sociedad			+3.2
Valencia			+2.3
Real Betis			+3.1				+0.8
Rayo Vallecano			+1.0
Levante			+0.6

Rayo Vallecano 1 Real Valladolid 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Málaga			+1.1
Real Sociedad			+0.4
Valencia			+0.3
Rayo Vallecano			-2.4				-0.8
Real Valladolid			+0.2		-0.4		+1.0

Levante 0 Osasuna 2
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Málaga			+0.5
Real Sociedad			+0.6
Valencia			+0.4
Levante			-1.8				-0.9
Osasuna					-10.9		+0.9
Granada					+1.7
Athletic Bilbao					+2.2
Real Zaragoza					+2.2
Celta					+2.6
Real Mallorca					+1.2
Deportivo					+0.6

Real Zaragoza 2 Valencia 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Málaga			+0.8
Real Sociedad			+0.3
Valencia			-1.3				-0.1
Osasuna					-0.4
Granada					-0.2
Athletic Bilbao					-0.3
Real Zaragoza			No		+2.1		-0.2
Celta					-0.6
Real Mallorca					-0.3

Getafe 2 Real Zaragoza 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Getafe			+0.5				+0.6
Osasuna					-0.5
Granada					-0.8
Athletic Bilbao					-1.1
Real Zaragoza					+4.9		-0.4
Celta					-1.4
Real Mallorca					-0.5
Deportivo					-0.3

Real Mallorca 1 Getafe 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Getafe			+0.3		-0.4		+0.8
Osasuna					-1.4
Granada					-0.9
Athletic Bilbao					-1.5
Real Zaragoza					-1.2
Celta					-1.8
Real Mallorca			*No		+7.8		-0.4
Deportivo					-0.4

Celta 2 Granada 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Osasuna					+1.6
Granada					+4.1		-0.5
Athletic Bilbao					+1.5
Real Zaragoza					+1.2
Celta					-9.8		+0.5
Real Mallorca					+0.7
Deportivo					+0.4

Week of 3/2
Real Madrid vs BarcelonaIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Barcelona	97.598.799.5		100.0YesYes

Málaga vs Atlético MadridHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Atlético Madrid	0.61.02.3						2.52.42.3
Málaga			53.639.332.5		NoNo0.0		4.85.35.6
Real Sociedad			21.727.129.5				6.16.06.0
Valencia			12.816.518.3				6.76.66.5
Real Betis			7.09.811.2				7.27.17.1

Real Sociedad vs Real BetisHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Málaga			41.546.445.2
Real Sociedad			32.519.813.1		No0.00.0		5.66.46.9
Valencia			14.616.716.1
Real Betis	No*No0.0		5.39.718.8				7.67.06.1

Osasuna vs Athletic BilbaoHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Osasuna					3.610.416.7		13.814.815.4
Athletic Bilbao					31.523.212.0		16.415.915.0
Real Zaragoza					30.430.932.5

Valencia vs LevanteHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Málaga			41.645.246.1				5.35.25.2
Real Sociedad			24.326.627.0				6.16.06.0
Valencia			20.111.68.3		No0.00.0		6.16.97.4
Levante			0.30.82.3				10.49.88.8

Deportivo vs Rayo VallecanoHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Rayo Vallecano			1.42.25.1				9.69.18.1
Deportivo					92.896.898.0		19.219.519.6

Espanyol vs Real ValladolidHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Real Valladolid			0.30.51.4				11.010.49.4
Espanyol					0.51.83.2		12.013.013.6

Sevilla vs CeltaHomeDrawAway
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Sevilla			0.70.20.1		0.10.41.0		10.411.411.9
Osasuna					7.27.99.3
Granada					15.216.618.9		15.315.315.4
Athletic Bilbao					24.225.928.8		16.016.016.1
Real Zaragoza					29.531.234.0		16.316.316.4
Celta					38.431.118.8		16.716.315.5
Real Mallorca					88.589.390.7		18.918.919.0

Granada vs Real MallorcaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	Liga Adelante	100.0*	Average seed
Granada					10.219.828.7		14.915.716.2
Real Zaragoza					31.629.930.4		16.416.316.3
Real Mallorca			NoNo0.0		93.189.278.2		19.118.918.4

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Liga BBVA Title Chances 2012-2013

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