1. Bundesliga Title Chances 2012-2013 50/50

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											UEFA CL			Chance will finish season at seed																				2. Bundesliga
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

Bayern Munich	75		24	-	3	-	1	66	Yes		Yes			100																		1.0		No			1	FC Bayern Munich
Dortmund	55		16	-	7	-	5	32	No		100.0	%	+0.0		89	11	1	0	0	0												2.1		No			2	Borussia Dortmund
Leverkusen	49		14	-	7	-	7	15	No		89.3		+1.0		10	60	20	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0							3.4	+0.03	No			3	Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Schalke	45		13	-	6	-	9	5	No		50.7		+2.1		1	18	32	19	12	8	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0				4.9	+0.07	No			6	FC Schalke 04

Freiburg	42		11	-	9	-	8	3	No		18.5		+1.0		0	4	14	18	17	15	12	9	6	3	1	0	0	0	0			6.5	+0.07	0.0	%		5	SC Freiburg
Eintracht	42		12	-	6	-	10	2	No		18.4		+0.9		0	4	14	18	17	15	12	9	6	3	1	0	0	0	0			6.6	+0.06	0.0			4	Eintracht Frankfurt
Monchengladbach	41		10	-	11	-	7	-1	No		11.7		+0.6		0	2	9	14	16	15	14	11	8	6	3	1	0	0	0			7.2	+0.06	0.0			8	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Mainz	39		10	-	9	-	9	3	No		4.5		-5.4		0	1	4	9	11	13	14	14	13	11	7	3	1	0	0	0		8.4	-0.80	0.0			9	1. FSV Mainz 05
Hannover	38		11	-	5	-	12	3	No		2.5		-1.3		0	0	2	5	8	11	13	15	15	14	9	5	2	0	0	0		9.1	-0.20	0.0		-0.0	10	Hannover 96
Nuremburg	38		9	-	11	-	8	-2	No		2.1		+1.1		0	0	2	5	7	10	13	15	16	14	9	5	2	1	0	0		9.2	+1.07	0.0		-0.1	7	1. FC Nuremberg
Hamburger	38		11	-	5	-	12	-12	No		2.2		+0.1		0	0	2	4	7	9	12	14	16	15	11	6	2	1	0	0		9.4	+0.01	0.0			11	Hamburger SV
Wolfsburg	33		8	-	9	-	11	-10	No		0.0		+0.0			0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	12	19	21	19	10	2	0	0	12.4	-0.02	1.4		+0.0	12	VfL Wolfsburg
Stuttgart	33		9	-	6	-	13	-17	No		0.0		-0.1			0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	11	19	24	20	10	2	0	0	12.5	-0.28	1.5		-0.0	13	VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen	31		8	-	7	-	13	-11	No		0.0						0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7	13	19	25	21	7	2	0	13.4	-0.03	5.0		+0.0	14	SV Werder Bremen
Dusseldorf	29		7	-	8	-	13	-10	No		0.0						0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	13	22	35	14	4	0	14.3	-0.02	11.3		+0.0	15	Fortuna Düsseldorf

Augsburg	24		5	-	9	-	14	-19	No		No										0	0	0	0	0	1	4	13	41	37	3	16.2		60.6		+0.1	16	FC Augsburg

Hoffenheim	23		6	-	5	-	17	-19	No		No											0	0	0	0	1	3	9	32	50	4	16.4		70.8		+0.1	17	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Greuther	15		2	-	9	-	17	-28	No		No															0	0	0	1	6	92	17.9		99.3		-0.0	18	SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Week of 4/5
Dortmund 4 Augsburg 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Dortmund			+0.5
Wolfsburg					-0.6
Stuttgart					-0.7
Werder Bremen					-1.1
Dusseldorf					-3.4
Augsburg					+11.3		-0.4
Hoffenheim					-4.9
Greuther					-0.5

Eintracht 0 Bayern Munich 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Bayern Munich	Yes
Dortmund	No
Leverkusen			+1.5
Schalke			+3.5
Freiburg			+1.8
Eintracht			-12.1				-0.7
Monchengladbach			+1.2
Mainz			+1.6
Hannover			+0.8
Nuremburg			+0.3
Hamburger			+1.1

Werder Bremen 0 Schalke 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			-1.8
Schalke			+14.2				+0.8
Freiburg			-1.8
Eintracht			-4.3
Monchengladbach			-1.2
Mainz			-2.2
Hannover			-1.0
Nuremburg			-0.3
Hamburger			-1.2
Werder Bremen					+2.7		-0.7
Dusseldorf					-0.5
Augsburg					-1.1
Hoffenheim					-0.8

Hamburger 0 Freiburg 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			-0.4
Schalke			-1.1
Freiburg			+8.5		No		+1.1
Eintracht			-1.2
Monchengladbach			-0.4
Mainz			-0.7
Hamburger			-4.5				-1.0

Nuremburg 2 Mainz 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			+0.7
Schalke			+1.6
Freiburg			+0.8
Eintracht			+0.6
Monchengladbach			+0.4
Mainz			-5.7				-0.9
Nuremburg			+1.2				+1.1

Monchengladbach 1 Greuther 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			-0.6
Schalke			-1.3
Freiburg			-0.7
Eintracht			-1.5
Monchengladbach			+5.6				+1.1
Mainz			-0.6
Hannover			-0.3
Hamburger			-0.5
Augsburg					-0.4
Hoffenheim					-0.4
Greuther					+0.9

Hannover 0 Stuttgart 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			+0.2
Schalke			+0.5
Freiburg			+0.2
Eintracht			+0.3
Monchengladbach			+0.2
Hannover			-1.4				-0.2
Stuttgart					-0.1		-0.2

Leverkusen 1 Wolfsburg 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			-0.3				-0.0
Schalke			+0.1
Eintracht			+0.1
Wolfsburg					-0.1		-0.2

Hoffenheim 3 Dusseldorf 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Werder Bremen					+0.3
Dusseldorf			No		+6.2		-0.6
Augsburg					+2.2
Hoffenheim					-9.2		+0.3
Greuther					+0.3

Week of 4/13
Schalke vs LeverkusenIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			80.290.297.9				3.83.43.0
Schalke			68.447.235.3				4.25.15.6
Freiburg			16.019.220.4				6.66.56.5
Eintracht			16.019.120.3				6.66.56.5

Freiburg vs HannoverHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Schalke			47.152.353.1				5.04.94.9
Freiburg			30.615.08.8				5.56.67.5
Eintracht			16.419.319.8				6.66.56.6
Hannover			0.41.35.5				10.19.37.9

Augsburg vs EintrachtHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Leverkusen			90.789.987.5				3.33.43.4
Schalke			53.951.946.6				4.84.95.1
Freiburg			20.319.116.2				6.46.56.7
Eintracht			9.214.930.0				7.46.75.6
Dusseldorf					14.910.48.5		14.414.314.2
Augsburg					47.263.871.8		15.816.316.5
Hoffenheim					77.469.665.0		16.516.416.3

Stuttgart vs MonchengladbachHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Schalke			52.851.647.9				4.94.95.0
Monchengladbach			4.98.820.4		0.0*NoNo		8.17.46.2
Stuttgart					0.21.42.8		11.612.713.2

Mainz vs HamburgerHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Mainz			8.92.91.3		No0.00.0		7.38.69.5
Hamburger			0.41.24.8				10.49.68.2

Bayern Munich vs NuremburgHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Nuremburg			0.41.14.6				10.19.48.1

Wolfsburg vs HoffenheimHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Wolfsburg					0.10.93.0		11.512.613.1
Dusseldorf					9.210.514.1
Augsburg					55.259.266.9		16.116.116.3
Hoffenheim					81.274.258.0		16.716.516.1

Dusseldorf vs Werder BremenHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFA CL	100.0*	2. Bundesliga	100.0*	Average seed
Werder Bremen			No0.00.0		9.14.81.1		14.213.612.6
Dusseldorf					4.011.718.5		13.614.515.0
Augsburg					62.360.658.9

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

1. Bundesliga Title Chances 2012-2013 50/50

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