Evo-Stik Southern Premier League Title Chances 2012-2013 50/50

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																								Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

Leamington	63	2	20	-	3	-	7	18	75.5	%	-9.6	81.5	%	-7.2	76	16	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0										1.4	-0.16	No			1	Leamington

Hemel Hempstead	59		18	-	5	-	9	24	13.6		+6.6	32.7		+7.0	14	33	22	13	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							3.1	+0.59	No			3	Hemel Hempstead Town
Stourbridge	55	1	16	-	7	-	8	31	5.2		+2.8	22.9		+4.8	5	20	21	17	12	9	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0					4.2	+0.72	No		-0.0	6	Stourbridge
Barwell	53	1	15	-	8	-	8	16	2.3		-0.2	16.3		-1.2	2	11	14	16	15	12	10	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				5.3	-0.29	No		-0.0	2	Barwell
Gosport Borough	54		14	-	12	-	6	27	1.6		+0.8	15.7		+3.7	2	10	15	16	15	13	10	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				5.4	+0.86	No		-0.0	4	Gosport Borough

Weymouth	52		15	-	7	-	10	2	0.7		+0.4	9.4		+2.7	1	4	8	11	13	14	13	11	9	7	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			6.8	+0.97	No		-0.0	9	Weymouth
Cambridge City	48	2	15	-	3	-	12	7	0.6		-0.5	7.5		-3.5	1	3	6	8	10	12	12	12	10	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		7.5	-0.92	0.0	%		7	Cambridge City
Bedford Town	48	1	14	-	6	-	11	8	0.2		-0.3	5.0		-3.0	0	1	3	6	8	10	11	12	11	10	8	7	5	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		8.4	-0.96	0.0			8	Bedford Town
Chesham United	45	2	12	-	9	-	9	6	0.1		+0.1	3.1		+0.9	0	1	2	4	6	8	9	11	11	11	10	9	7	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	0		9.5	+1.06	0.0		-0.1	5	Chesham United
St Albans City	47		14	-	5	-	13	4	0.0		-0.1	2.0		-1.9	0	0	1	2	4	6	8	10	12	12	12	10	8	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0		10.0	-0.99	0.0			11	St Albans City
Arlesey Town	41	4	12	-	5	-	11	3	0.1		-0.1	2.5		-1.8	0	1	2	3	4	6	7	9	10	10	10	10	8	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0		10.4	-0.95	0.1		+0.0	10	Arlesey Town
St Neots Town	44		13	-	5	-	14	6	0.0		+0.0	0.6		+0.2	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	5	7	10	11	13	12	11	9	6	4	2	1	0	0		12.0	+1.08	0.0		-0.2	12	St Neots Town
AFC Totton	43		12	-	7	-	13	-3	0.0		-0.0	0.3		-0.2	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	6	8	10	12	13	13	11	8	5	3	2	1	0		12.8	-0.27	0.1		-0.1	13	AFC Totton
Banbury United	43		12	-	7	-	13	-8	0.0		-0.0	0.3		-0.2	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	6	7	9	11	13	13	12	9	6	3	1	0	0		12.8	-0.26	0.1		-0.1	14	Banbury United
Bashley	35	3	10	-	5	-	14	-11	0.0			0.1		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	13	12	10	8	5	2	0	15.3	+0.95	2.4		-3.8	19	Bashley
Bideford	36	2	10	-	6	-	14	-7	0.0		-0.0	0.0		-0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	14	13	11	8	5	3	0	15.5	-0.85	2.7		+0.7	15	Bideford
Redditch United	32	4	9	-	5	-	14	-17	0.0			0.0		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	14	13	11	8	5	0	16.2	+0.90	5.3		-6.5	17	Redditch United
Hitchin Town	31	2	9	-	4	-	17	-11	No		-0.0	0.0		-0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	9	12	15	16	17	17	0	18.2	-0.65	17.2		+4.0	18	Hitchin Town
Bedworth United	29	3	7	-	8	-	14	-22	No		-0.0	0.0		-0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	16	19	22	0	18.5	-0.15	22.2		-0.4	16	Bedworth United
Chippenham Town	33		7	-	12	-	13	-10	No			0.0		-0.0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	7	11	16	19	21	18	0	18.6	-0.15	17.9		-0.7	20	Chippenham Town

Frome Town	30	1	7	-	9	-	15	-14	No			0.0		-0.0				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	8	12	17	22	32	0	19.2	-0.54	31.9		+7.1	21	Frome Town
Kettering Town	8	2	4	-	6	-	20	-49	No			No																			0	0	0	0	0	100	22.0		100.0		+0.0	22	Kettering Town

Week of 3/2
Gosport Borough 3 Leamington 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	-5.9		-4.5
Hemel Hempstead	+2.2		+1.4
Stourbridge	+0.9		+0.3
Barwell	+0.9		+0.2
Gosport Borough	+1.0		+4.0		No		+0.9
Cambridge City	+0.4

Hemel Hempstead 4 Bedford Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	-2.7		-2.0
Hemel Hempstead	+3.8		+5.1				+0.7
Bedford Town	-0.3		-2.9				-0.9

Stourbridge 3 Bideford 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	-1.1		-0.9
Hemel Hempstead	-0.3		-0.4
Stourbridge	+1.7		+4.1		*No		+0.8
Barwell			-0.4
Gosport Borough			-0.4
Weymouth			-0.3
Cambridge City			-0.4
Bedford Town			-0.4
Bideford					+1.2		-0.9
Bedworth United					-0.2
Chippenham Town					-0.3
Frome Town					-0.3

Chippenham Town 1 Barwell 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	+0.4		+0.3
Barwell	-0.6		-1.0		*No		-0.1
Bashley					-0.1
Redditch United					-0.2
Hitchin Town					-0.2
Bedworth United					-0.3
Chippenham Town					+1.1		-0.2
Frome Town					-0.3

Chesham United 1 Cambridge City 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	+0.4		+0.3
Stourbridge			+0.2
Barwell			+0.2
Gosport Borough			+0.2
Cambridge City	-0.6		-3.2				-0.9
Chesham United			+1.4				+1.1

Hitchin Town 1 Weymouth 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hemel Hempstead			-0.3
Stourbridge			-0.4
Barwell			-0.4
Gosport Borough			-0.4
Weymouth	+0.3		+2.9		No		+1.0
Cambridge City			-0.4
Bedford Town			-0.3
Bashley					-0.5
Redditch United					-0.7
Hitchin Town	No				+5.2		-0.7
Bedworth United					-1.2
Chippenham Town					-1.1
Frome Town					-1.4

Bashley 1 Arlesey Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Arlesey Town			-1.6				-1.0
Bashley					-3.2		+0.9
Redditch United					+0.3
Hitchin Town					+0.5
Bedworth United					+0.6
Chippenham Town					+0.7
Frome Town					+0.8

St Albans City 0 St Neots Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
St Albans City			-1.7				-1.0
St Neots Town			+0.3		-0.2		+1.1

Banbury United 1 Bedworth United 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Banbury United			-0.2				-0.2
Bashley					-0.1
Redditch United					-0.2
Hitchin Town					-0.2
Bedworth United	No				+1.3		-0.2
Chippenham Town					-0.3
Frome Town					-0.3

Kettering Town 1 AFC Totton 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Totton			-0.2				-0.2

Redditch United 2 Frome Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bashley					-0.5
Redditch United					-6.2		+0.9
Hitchin Town					-0.7
Bedworth United					-0.9
Chippenham Town					-1.0
Frome Town					+9.4		-0.6

Week of 3/9
Leamington vs BashleyIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	84.273.967.9		88.180.375.7				1.21.41.5
Hemel Hempstead	9.314.517.4		29.533.435.5				3.13.13.0
Stourbridge	3.35.67.0		21.423.224.2
Bashley	NoNo0.0		0.00.00.2		3.92.50.9		16.115.514.3

Bedworth United vs Hemel HempsteadHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	79.477.070.8		84.482.678.0				1.31.41.4
Hemel Hempstead	8.511.719.9		27.531.138.8				3.63.22.6
Hitchin Town					18.917.015.6		18.318.218.1
Bedworth United					14.123.529.6		17.818.719.0
Chippenham Town					20.017.516.0		18.718.518.5
Frome Town					34.731.529.4		19.319.219.1

St Neots Town vs StourbridgeHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leamington	77.176.373.5		82.882.180.0
Stourbridge	2.74.18.5		18.721.727.8				4.84.33.5
St Neots Town			1.10.40.2				10.912.212.9

Barwell vs St Albans CityHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Barwell	3.91.61.0		20.915.312.4				4.45.46.1
St Albans City			0.81.53.5				11.010.38.9

Cambridge City vs Gosport BoroughHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Gosport Borough	0.61.13.0		11.514.820.4				6.25.54.5
Cambridge City	1.10.40.2		11.06.64.5		No0.00.0		6.57.78.5

Weymouth vs Banbury UnitedHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Weymouth	1.40.50.3		13.18.46.4				5.87.07.6
Banbury United			0.10.20.6				13.813.111.8

Bedford Town vs Chesham UnitedHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bedford Town	0.40.10.1		7.64.22.8		No0.00.0		7.38.69.4
Chesham United	0.00.10.2		1.62.65.0				10.59.78.4

Arlesey Town vs Chippenham TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Arlesey Town			3.92.01.4				9.310.611.3
Bedworth United					20.421.924.2		18.418.518.6
Chippenham Town					25.118.99.9		19.118.717.9
Frome Town					29.331.634.8		19.119.219.3

AFC Totton vs Redditch UnitedHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Totton			0.60.20.1		0.00.10.3		11.713.013.8
Redditch United	0.0No0.0				8.15.62.5		17.016.415.3

Kettering Town vs BidefordHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bideford	No0.00.0				4.42.81.0		16.315.714.6

Frome Town vs Hitchin TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hitchin Town					26.3*17.28.1		18.918.317.4
Frome Town					19.133.243.9		18.619.419.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Evo-Stik Southern Premier League Title Chances 2012-2013 50/50

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