Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2012-2013 50/50

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																								Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

North Ferriby	93		28	-	9	-	5	53	Yes		+34.5	Yes		+25.9	100																						1.0	+0.34	No			1	North Ferriby United

Hednesford Town	93		28	-	9	-	5	44	No		-34.5	25.0	%	-25.9		100																					2.0	-0.34	No			2	Hednesford Town
FC United	83		25	-	8	-	9	38	No			25.0					100																				3.0	+0.10	No			3	FC United of Manchester
Witton Albion	80		24	-	8	-	10	28	No			25.0						100																			4.0	+0.14	No			4	Witton Albion
AFC Fylde	75		23	-	6	-	13	42	No			25.0							100																		5.0	-0.24	No			6	AFC Fylde

Rushall Olympic	70		20	-	10	-	12	14	No			No								100																	6.0	+0.15	No			5	Rushall Olympic
Buxton	67		18	-	13	-	11	16	No			No									100																7.0	-0.05	No			7	Buxton
Chorley	67		20	-	7	-	15	11	No			No										100															8.0	+0.23	No			8	Chorley
Worksop Town	66		20	-	6	-	16	23	No			No											100														9.0	-0.33	No			9	Worksop Town
Ashton United	59		15	-	14	-	13	5	No			No												100													10.0	+0.36	No			11	Ashton United
Marine	59		16	-	11	-	15	0	No			No													100												11.0	-0.36	No			10	Marine
Ilkeston FC	58		15	-	13	-	14	12	No			No														100											12.0	+0.24	No			12	Ilkeston FC
Whitby Town	57		16	-	9	-	17	-4	No			No															100										13.0	+0.22	No			13	Whitby Town
Nantwich Town	53		15	-	8	-	19	-13	No			No																100									14.0	+1.36	No			14	Nantwich Town
Stafford	51		12	-	15	-	15	-6	No			No																	100								15.0	-0.79	No			16	Stafford Rangers
Blyth Spartans	51		15	-	6	-	21	-17	No			No																		100							16.0	-1.03	No			15	Blyth Spartans
Matlock Town	45		12	-	9	-	21	-26	No			No																			100						17.0		No			17	Matlock Town
Frickley	39		10	-	9	-	23	-30	No			No																				100					18.0	+0.10	No			18	Frickley Athletic
Grantham Town	36		9	-	9	-	24	-19	No			No																					100				19.0	+0.62	No		-0.0	19	Grantham Town
Stocksbridge	36		9	-	9	-	24	-39	No			No																						100			20.0	-0.72	No			20	Stocksbridge Park Steels

Kendal Town	33		9	-	6	-	27	-47	No			No																							100		21.0		Yes		+0.0	21	Kendal Town
Eastwood Town	15		3	-	6	-	33	-85	No			No																								100	22.0		Yes			22	Eastwood Town

Week of 4/20
Marine 1 North Ferriby 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby	+19.7		+14.7				+0.2
Hednesford Town	-19.6		-14.7				-0.2
AFC Fylde	No
Marine							-0.6

Ilkeston FC 0 Hednesford Town 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby	-19.6		-14.7				-0.2
Hednesford Town	+19.6		+14.7				+0.2
AFC Fylde	No
Ilkeston FC							-0.4

AFC Fylde 0 Stafford 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Fylde	No		-2.0				-0.4
Stafford							+0.6

Buxton 2 Rushall Olympic 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion			+1.5
Rushall Olympic			-3.9				-0.5
Buxton			+0.8				+0.7

Witton Albion 3 Matlock Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion			+3.5				+0.5
Rushall Olympic			-1.8
Matlock Town							-0.4

AFC Fylde 3 Frickley 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Fylde			+2.8				+0.5
Rushall Olympic			-1.7

FC United 1 Worksop Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United			+1.9				+0.4
Worksop Town			No				-0.6

Stocksbridge 0 AFC Fylde 2
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
AFC Fylde			+1.5				+0.4
Rushall Olympic			-1.1
Buxton			No

Chorley 1 Ashton United 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley							-0.0
Ashton United			*No				-0.2

FC United 3 Ashton United 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United							+0.3
Ashton United							-0.6

Stocksbridge 5 Kendal Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Frickley					*No
Grantham Town					-7.1
Stocksbridge					-7.7		+0.3
Kendal Town					+14.8		-0.2

Matlock Town 3 Kendal Town 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town							+0.3
Grantham Town					-8.9
Kendal Town					+9.4

Blyth Spartans 1 Grantham Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth Spartans							+0.6
Frickley					*No
Grantham Town					+9.0		-0.2
Stocksbridge					-1.6
Kendal Town					-7.4

Stocksbridge 5 Nantwich Town 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich Town							-0.6

Nantwich Town 3 Frickley 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich Town							+0.6
Frickley							-0.3

Week of 4/27
North Ferriby 1 Chorley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby	+24.0		+18.0				+0.2
Hednesford Town	-24.0		-18.0				-0.2
Chorley							-0.4

Hednesford Town 4 Stocksbridge 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby	-23.1		-17.3				-0.2
Hednesford Town	+23.1		+17.3				+0.2

AFC Fylde 1 Rushall Olympic 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion							+0.2
AFC Fylde							-0.3
Rushall Olympic							+0.2

Rushall Olympic 0 FC United 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United							+0.3
Witton Albion			+1.4
Rushall Olympic			No				-0.3

Frickley 0 Witton Albion 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion			+1.4				+0.4
Rushall Olympic			-1.2

Worksop Town 0 AFC Fylde 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worksop Town							-0.2

Kendal Town 1 Buxton 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton							-0.4
Grantham Town					+4.9
Kendal Town					-4.9

Grantham Town 1 Marine 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine							-0.5
Grantham Town					-3.8
Kendal Town					+3.8

Blyth Spartans 1 Kendal Town 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stafford							+0.3
Blyth Spartans							-0.7
Grantham Town					+0.3
Kendal Town					-0.3

Matlock Town 1 Worksop Town 5
Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worksop Town							+0.4
Matlock Town							-0.2

Buxton 3 Nantwich Town 1
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton							+0.4
Nantwich Town							-0.6
Stafford							+0.2

Stafford 2 Nantwich Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich Town							-0.8
Stafford							+0.8

Eastwood Town 1 Blyth Spartans 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blyth Spartans							+0.6

Matlock Town 1 Ilkeston FC 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston FC							-0.2

Ashton United 2 Whitby Town 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town							-0.3

Week of 5/4
North Ferriby 2 Ashton United 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby	+32.0		+24.0				+0.3
Hednesford Town	-32.0		-24.0				-0.3
Ashton United							-0.3
Marine							+0.3

AFC Fylde 1 Hednesford Town 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby	-29.7		-22.2				-0.3
Hednesford Town	+29.7		+22.2				+0.3
Witton Albion							+0.2
AFC Fylde							-0.2

Kendal Town 4 Matlock Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Grantham Town					+0.1
Kendal Town					-0.1

Stocksbridge 0 Grantham Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Grantham Town					No		+0.6
Stocksbridge							-0.7
Kendal Town					Yes

Stafford 0 Whitby Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ilkeston FC							-0.4
Whitby Town							+0.8
Stafford							-0.9

Nantwich Town 2 Blyth Spartans 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nantwich Town							+1.0
Blyth Spartans							-1.0

Witton Albion 2 Rushall Olympic 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Witton Albion							+0.4

Ilkeston FC 1 Marine 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United							+0.3
Marine							-0.3

Chorley 2 Eastwood Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley							+0.5
Worksop Town							-0.3

Worksop Town 2 Buxton 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton							-0.3
Worksop Town							+0.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2012-2013 50/50

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