Football League Championship Title Chances 2012-2013

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Up to Premier League			Chance will finish season at seed																										Down to League One
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Cardiff	87		25	-	12	-	9	27	Yes		Yes			100																								1.0		No			1	.639	Cardiff City
Hull	79		24	-	7	-	15	9	No		Yes		+33.8		100																							2.0	+0.45	No			4	.546	Hull City

Watford	77		23	-	8	-	15	27	No		25.0	%	-33.8			100																						3.0	-0.45	No			5	.613	Watford
Brighton	75		19	-	18	-	9	26	No		25.0						100																					4.0	+0.01	No			2	.639	Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace	72		19	-	15	-	12	11	No		25.0		+1.2					100																				5.0	+0.28	No			3	.547	Crystal Palace
Leicester	68		19	-	11	-	16	23	No		25.0		+20.2						100																			6.0	+1.44	No			8	.616	Leicester City

Bolton	68		18	-	14	-	14	8	No		No		-13.1							100																		7.0	-0.66	No			7	.534	Bolton Wanderers
Nottm Forest	67		17	-	16	-	13	4	No		No		-8.4								100																	8.0	-1.06	No			6	.516	Nottingham Forest
Charlton	65		17	-	14	-	15	6	No		No											100																9.0	+0.20	No			9	.526	Charlton Athletic
Derby	61		16	-	13	-	17	3	No		No												100															10.0	+3.39	No			14	.511	Derby County
Burnley	61		16	-	13	-	17	2	No		No													100														11.0	+2.33	No			11	.506	Burnley
Birmingham	61		15	-	16	-	15	-6	No		No														100													12.0	-0.62	No			10	.467	Birmingham City
Leeds	61		17	-	10	-	19	-9	No		No															100												13.0	+3.21	No			16	.450	Leeds United
Ipswich	60		16	-	12	-	18	-13	No		No																100											14.0	-1.56	No			15	.421	Ipswich Town
Blackpool	59		14	-	17	-	15	-1	No		No																	100										15.0	-0.11	No			13	.491	Blackpool
Middlesbrough	59		18	-	5	-	23	-9	No		No																		100									16.0	-2.77	No			19	.452	Middlesbrough
Blackburn	58		14	-	16	-	16	-7	No		No																			100								17.0	-0.46	No		-0.0	18	.458	Blackburn Rovers
Sheff Wed	58		16	-	10	-	20	-8	No		No																				100							18.0	+1.10	No		-7.1	17	.451	Sheffield Wednesday
Huddersfield	58		15	-	13	-	18	-20	No		No																					100						19.0	-1.98	No		-1.7	12	.396	Huddersfield
Millwall	56		15	-	11	-	20	-11	No		No																						100					20.0	-1.39	No		-2.6	20	.434	Millwall
Barnsley	55		14	-	13	-	19	-14	No		No																							100				21.0	-0.10	No		-52.3	22	.426	Barnsley

Peterborough	54		15	-	9	-	22	-9	No		No																								100			22.0	-1.13	Yes		+61.4	21	.455	Peterborough United
Wolverhampton	51		14	-	9	-	23	-14	No		No																									100		23.0	-0.13	Yes		+2.3	23	.425	Wolverhampton Wanderers
Bristol City	41		11	-	8	-	27	-25	No		No																										100	24.0		Yes			24	.387	Bristol City

Week of 4/20
Burnley 1 Cardiff 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Cardiff	Yes
Hull	No
Burnley					-1.5		-0.2

Bolton 2 Middlesbrough 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Middlesbrough			No				-1.1

Nottm Forest 0 Barnsley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Huddersfield					+1.3
Barnsley					-0.9

Watford 4 Blackburn 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Blackburn			*No		+4.1		-1.1

Brighton 6 Blackpool 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Blackpool					+0.5		-1.2

Crystal Palace 2 Leicester 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Leicester			-1.4				-0.2
Blackburn			*No

Huddersfield 3 Millwall 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Huddersfield					-23.6		+1.3
Millwall							-1.6
Peterborough					+5.7		-0.2
Wolverhampton					+6.3		-0.2

Charlton 2 Wolverhampton 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Charlton					*No		+1.2
Leeds					No
Middlesbrough					No
Huddersfield					-4.1
Peterborough					-5.0
Wolverhampton					+16.8		-0.8

Millwall 1 Blackburn 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Blackburn					-10.8		+2.4
Millwall			No		+0.5		-2.1

Birmingham 1 Leeds 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Birmingham					No		+1.6
Leeds			No				-1.4

Derby 3 Peterborough 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Charlton					*No
Derby					No		+1.6
Leeds					No
Middlesbrough					No
Peterborough					+15.3		-1.0
Wolverhampton					-4.7

Sheff Wed 1 Ipswich 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Ipswich					-0.3
Sheff Wed							-0.8

Week of 4/27
Leicester 1 Watford 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Hull			-11.1
Watford			+11.1				+0.2
Leicester			-6.5				-0.7

Barnsley 2 Hull 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Hull			-7.1
Watford			+7.1
Barnsley					-27.2		+1.1
Peterborough					+11.5		-0.3
Wolverhampton					+8.7		-0.3

Millwall 0 Nottm Forest 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Birmingham			No
Millwall					+1.0		-1.9

Millwall 0 Crystal Palace 0
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Millwall					-2.7		-0.6

Cardiff 1 Bolton 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Bolton			+0.8
Birmingham			No

Leeds 1 Brighton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Leeds							-1.6

Blackburn 1 Crystal Palace 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Blackburn							-0.6

Middlesbrough 2 Charlton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Charlton			No
Middlesbrough							-0.3

Ipswich 3 Birmingham 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Birmingham			No				-1.1
Ipswich					No		+2.2

Peterborough 1 Sheff Wed 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Sheff Wed					+2.0		-1.6
Barnsley					+8.1		-0.2
Peterborough					-26.8		+0.9
Wolverhampton					+10.8		-0.2

Wolverhampton 1 Burnley 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Burnley					No		+2.3
Barnsley					-7.4		+0.2
Peterborough					-11.0		+0.2
Wolverhampton					+25.1		-0.8

Bristol City 1 Huddersfield 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Huddersfield					-16.1		+2.4
Barnsley					+5.8		-0.2

Blackpool 2 Derby 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Derby							-1.3
Blackpool					No		+2.0

Week of 5/4
Watford 1 Leeds 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Hull			Yes				+0.5
Watford			-33.8				-0.5
Leeds							+3.8

Nottm Forest 2 Leicester 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Leicester			+8.0				+0.9
Nottm Forest			No				-1.0

Hull 2 Cardiff 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Hull			-8.5
Watford			+8.5

Bolton 2 Blackpool 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Leicester			+4.6				+0.2
Bolton			-6.8				-0.4
Nottm Forest			+1.0

Crystal Palace 3 Peterborough 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Blackburn					No
Sheff Wed					No		+0.2
Huddersfield					No
Millwall					No		+0.2
Barnsley					-13.2		+0.2
Peterborough					+26.9		-0.9
Wolverhampton					-2.2

Huddersfield 2 Barnsley 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Blackburn					No
Sheff Wed					-1.9		+0.3
Huddersfield					No		-1.2
Millwall					No		+0.2
Barnsley					-8.0		-0.5
Peterborough					+12.0		-0.2
Wolverhampton					Yes

Sheff Wed 2 Middlesbrough 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Middlesbrough							-1.9
Sheff Wed					No		+1.8
Huddersfield					+2.2
Millwall					+1.2		-0.2

Derby 1 Millwall 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Derby							+2.2
Blackburn					No
Huddersfield					No
Millwall					+2.7		-1.6

Brighton 2 Wolverhampton 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Peterborough					-1.8
Wolverhampton					Yes

Birmingham 1 Blackburn 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Birmingham							-0.5
Blackburn					No		-0.6

Burnley 2 Ipswich 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Up to Premier League	100.0*	Down to League One	100.0*	Average seed
Burnley							+2.1
Ipswich							-1.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Football League Championship Title Chances 2012-2013

Big Games