Australian Football League Playoff Chances 2011 50/50

												100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will make playoffs												Chance will finish regular season at seed
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	Avg.	Change	RPI

Cats	52		13	-	0	-	1	416	In		+0.0	55	33	9	3	1	0	0	0										1.6	-0.04	1	Geelong Cats
Magpies	48	1	12	-	0	-	1	623	100.0	%	+0.0	39	40	14	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0							1.9	+0.41	2	Collingwood Magpies
Blues	42		10	-	1	-	3	405	99.3		+0.1	4	14	31	24	16	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				3.8	+0.03	4	Carlton Blues
Hawks	40		10	-	0	-	4	325	98.6		-0.6	1	7	27	29	20	9	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0				4.2	-0.50	3	Hawthorn Hawks
Eagles	36	1	9	-	0	-	4	259	95.1		+0.1	1	5	14	23	25	14	8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		4.9	+0.04	5	West Coast Eagles
Dockers	32		8	-	0	-	6	-28	76.4		+0.4	0	1	3	7	13	21	18	13	9	6	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	7.0	+0.04	9	Fremantle Dockers
Swans	30		7	-	1	-	6	28	66.6		+0.6	0	0	1	4	10	18	18	15	11	8	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	7.7	+0.04	6	Sydney Swans
Bombers	26		6	-	1	-	7	98	36.4		+1.2	0	0	0	1	4	7	11	13	14	13	12	10	8	5	2	0	0	9.5	+0.04	8	Essendon Bombers

Tigers	26		6	-	1	-	7	-159	36.1		+0.6	0	0	0	1	3	7	11	14	14	13	12	10	8	5	2	0	0	9.6	+0.02	11	Richmond Tigers
Saints	22	1	5	-	1	-	7	-78	26.8		+8.7	0	0	0	1	2	5	8	10	12	13	13	12	10	7	4	1	0	10.3	+0.86	7	St. Kilda Saints
Kangaroos	24		6	-	0	-	8	58	25.2		-11.9	0	0	0	1	2	5	8	11	12	13	14	13	11	7	3	1	0	10.3	-0.83	13	North Melbourne Kangaroos
Bulldogs	24		6	-	0	-	8	-55	24.0		+0.4		0	0	0	2	4	7	10	12	14	14	14	12	6	2	1	0	10.4	+0.01	12	Western Bulldogs
Demons	22		5	-	1	-	8	-67	13.5		+0.4		0	0	0	1	2	4	7	9	12	14	16	16	11	5	2	1	11.4		10	Melbourne Demons
Crows	16		4	-	0	-	10	-307	1.6		+0.1			0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	9	14	22	20	14	8	13.9	-0.05	14	Adelaide Crows
Lions	12		3	-	0	-	11	-289	0.2		+0.1					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	18	26	24	15	14.9	+0.54	17	Brisbane Lions
Suns	8	1	2	-	0	-	11	-751	0.1		+0.0						0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	11	22	30	27	15.5	-0.02	16	Gold Coast Suns
Power	8		2	-	0	-	12	-478	0.0		-0.1							0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	13	26	49	16.0	-0.59	15	Port Adelaide Power

Week of 7/1
Kangaroos 70 Saints 79
4:40 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dockers	+0.3
Swans	+0.5
Bombers	+1.1
Tigers	+0.5
Saints	+8.7		+0.8
Kangaroos	-12.1		-0.8
Bulldogs	+0.3
Demons	+0.3

Tigers 81 Blues 184
2:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cats	*In
Blues	+1.9		+0.5
Eagles	+0.4
Dockers	+1.7
Swans	+1.4
Bombers	+1.1
Tigers	-11.8		-0.8
Saints	+1.0
Kangaroos	+1.7
Bulldogs	+1.4
Demons	+0.9

Dockers 112 Suns 62
1:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cats	*In
Blues	-0.2
Eagles	-0.4
Dockers	+11.0		+0.7
Swans	-1.1
Bombers	-1.3
Tigers	-1.9
Saints	-1.1
Kangaroos	-1.6
Bulldogs	-1.4
Demons	-1.1
Suns	-0.5		-0.5

Bulldogs 127 Demons 63
7:40 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Eagles	+0.2
Dockers	+0.8
Bombers	+0.6
Tigers	+0.2
Kangaroos	+0.3
Bulldogs	+8.0		+0.8
Demons	-10.4		-0.9

Bombers 115 Cats 111
7:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cats			-0.1
Blues	-0.2
Eagles	-0.4
Dockers	-1.4
Swans	-1.2
Bombers	+9.3		+0.8
Tigers	-1.5
Saints	-1.1
Kangaroos	-1.4
Bulldogs	-1.2
Demons	-0.6

Crows 57 Swans 50
7:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blues	+0.2
Eagles	+0.3
Dockers	+1.3
Swans	-9.0		-0.7
Bombers	+1.1
Tigers	+1.0
Saints	+0.9
Kangaroos	+1.3
Bulldogs	+1.2
Demons	+0.7
Crows	+0.8		+0.5

Magpies 106 Hawks 65
2:10 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Magpies			+0.4
Hawks	-0.7		-0.5

Lions 99 Power 88
1:10 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Lions			+0.5
Power			-0.6

Week of 7/8
Bombers vs TigersIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
7:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Bombers	51.534.021.4		8.69.610.5
Tigers	21.237.550.9		10.69.58.7

Suns vs SwansHomeDrawAway
7:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dockers	77.7*76.275.1		6.97.07.1
Swans	55.768.177.3		8.47.77.1
Bombers	38.0*36.534.8		9.59.59.6
Tigers	37.736.634.5		9.69.69.7
Saints	28.226.525.5
Kangaroos	26.724.423.8		10.310.410.4
Bulldogs	25.523.422.4		10.310.410.4
Suns			15.115.515.8

Power vs SaintsHomeDrawAway
2:40 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dockers	77.775.975.1		7.07.07.1
Swans	68.067.265.1		7.77.77.8
Bombers	37.636.035.3		9.59.69.6
Tigers	37.6*36.334.6		9.59.69.7
Saints	17.1*27.036.6		11.110.39.5
Kangaroos	26.4*25.124.0		10.310.410.4
Bulldogs	25.323.522.7		10.310.410.4
Power	0.00.0Out		15.716.016.4

Magpies vs KangaroosHomeDrawAway
1:10 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Magpies	In*In100.0		1.71.92.1
Dockers	77.676.775.1
Swans	68.067.465.1		7.77.77.8
Bombers	38.135.734.8		9.49.69.6
Tigers	37.536.634.7		9.59.69.7
Saints	28.027.325.7		10.210.310.4
Kangaroos	15.624.134.8		11.110.39.6
Bulldogs	25.0*24.022.9		10.310.410.4

Bulldogs vs BluesHomeDrawAway
4:40 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blues	98.899.599.9		4.23.83.3
Swans	65.167.268.0		7.87.77.7
Bombers	35.236.937.6		9.69.59.5
Tigers	34.535.737.7		9.79.79.5
Saints	25.727.427.9		10.410.310.2
Kangaroos	24.225.526.2		10.410.310.3
Bulldogs	33.522.914.5		9.610.411.1

Eagles vs CatsHomeDrawAway
6:40 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cats			1.81.51.4
Eagles	98.094.892.2		4.45.05.5

Hawks vs LionsHomeDrawAway
2:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hawks	99.799.397.5		3.84.14.6
Lions	0.00.00.3		15.315.114.5

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Australian Football League Playoff Chances 2011 50/50

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