Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2011-2012 50/50

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																								Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

Chester	100		31	-	7	-	4	73	Yes		Yes			100																						1.0		No			1	Chester

Chorley	79		24	-	7	-	11	28	No		25.0	%			100																					2.0	+0.62	No			3	Chorley
Bradford PA	78		24	-	6	-	12	28	No		25.0					100																				3.0	-0.62	No			5	Bradford Park Avenue
Hednesford Town	73		21	-	10	-	11	18	No		25.0						100																			4.0	+0.15	No			4	Hednesford Town
FC United	72		21	-	9	-	12	32	No		25.0		+0.0					100																		5.0	-0.15	No			6	FC United of Manchester

Marine	66		19	-	9	-	14	6	No		No		-0.0						100																	6.0		No			7	Marine
Rushall Olympic	61		17	-	10	-	15	1	No		No									100																7.0	+0.33	No			8	Rushall Olympic
North Ferriby	58		16	-	10	-	16	-14	No		No										100															8.0	+1.09	No			10	North Ferriby United
Nantwich Town	57		15	-	13	-	14	4	No		No											100														9.0	-0.94	No			9	Nantwich Town
Kendal Town	53		15	-	8	-	19	-5	No		No												100													10.0	+2.81	No			11	Kendal Town
Ashton United	53		15	-	8	-	19	-6	No		No													100												11.0	-0.66	No			15	Ashton United
Buxton	53		15	-	8	-	19	-13	No		No														100											12.0	-1.27	No			13	Buxton
Matlock Town	50		12	-	14	-	16	-2	No		No															100										13.0	-0.64	No			17	Matlock Town
Worksop Town	49		13	-	10	-	19	-20	No		No																100									14.0	+0.38	No			16	Worksop Town
Stafford	48		12	-	12	-	18	-5	No		No																	100								15.0	-1.09	No			12	Stafford Rangers
Whitby Town	47		12	-	11	-	19	-23	No		No																		100							16.0	+0.24	No			14	Whitby Town
Stocksbridge	42		10	-	12	-	20	-18	No		No																			100						17.0	-0.07	No		-0.9	19	Stocksbridge Park Steels
Frickley	42		10	-	12	-	20	-21	No		No																				100					18.0	+0.89	No		-70.0	21	Frickley Athletic

Chasetown	41		10	-	11	-	21	-25	No		No																					100				19.0	-0.67	Yes		+61.8	18	Chasetown
Mickleover	40		11	-	10	-	21	-18	No		No																						100			20.0	-0.38	Yes		+9.1	20	Mickleover Sports
Burscough	26		5	-	11	-	26	-50	No		No																							100		21.0		Yes			22	Burscough
Northwich	0		26	-	8	-	8	30	No		No																								100	22.0		Yes			2	Northwich Victoria

Week of 4/7
Stocksbridge 1 Chester 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chester	+4.1		+3.1
Bradford PA	No
Stocksbridge					+15.3		-0.7
Chasetown					-3.8
Mickleover					-3.8
Northwich	-4.1		-3.1

Chester 1 Northwich 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chester	+1.6		+1.2
Northwich	-1.6		-1.2

Northwich 1 Hednesford Town 2
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chester	Yes		Yes
Hednesford Town			+5.1				+0.3
FC United			-4.4				-0.2
Northwich	No		-0.2

Chasetown 1 Hednesford Town 2
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-5.3
Stocksbridge					-4.4		+0.2
Chasetown					+18.2		-0.7
Mickleover					-4.5

Ashton United 1 FC United 0
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United					No		+1.1

Hednesford Town 2 Kendal Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town					No		+1.0

FC United 1 Buxton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					-14.1		+0.9

Chorley 3 Chasetown 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby					No
Whitby Town					-4.2
Stocksbridge					-3.8
Chasetown					+18.5		-0.7
Mickleover					-4.9		+0.2

Matlock Town 1 Marine 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town							-0.2

Mickleover 1 Stocksbridge 3
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					-27.1		+1.0
Mickleover					+26.7		-0.9

Whitby Town 2 Stafford 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stafford							-0.9
Whitby Town					-18.9		+0.8
Chasetown					+4.7		-0.2
Mickleover					+4.8		-0.2

North Ferriby 1 Whitby Town 0
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					+16.9		-0.7
Stocksbridge					-3.9
Chasetown					-4.8
Mickleover					-4.7		+0.2

Frickley 2 Worksop Town 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worksop Town					+0.2		-0.9
Frickley					-10.5		+0.6

Buxton 2 Matlock Town 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					-8.2		+1.0
Matlock Town							-1.0

Nantwich Town 0 Frickley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Frickley					+4.5		-0.2

Buxton 3 Stafford 1
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					-1.9		+1.0
Stafford							-1.1

Worksop Town 3 Ashton United 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United							-0.2
Worksop Town							-0.2

Stafford 1 Nantwich Town 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stafford					No		-0.3

Rushall Olympic 1 North Ferriby 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby					*No		-0.2

Week of 4/14
Matlock Town 2 FC United 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hednesford Town			+4.1				+0.2
FC United			-4.5				-0.3
Matlock Town					No		+1.2

Marine 0 Rushall Olympic 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine			No

FC United 1 Burscough 1
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hednesford Town			+0.3
FC United			-0.3

Bradford PA 3 Frickley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					No
Matlock Town					No
Worksop Town					No
Whitby Town					-4.7
Frickley					+16.1		-0.6
Mickleover					-5.0		+0.2

Mickleover 1 Chester 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-7.3		+0.2
Stocksbridge					-4.9
Frickley					-5.0		+0.2
Mickleover					+20.5		-0.7

Stocksbridge 1 Nantwich Town 5
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					+13.1		-0.5
Mickleover					-5.3

Rushall Olympic 2 Frickley 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-3.4
Frickley					+10.0		-0.4

Chasetown 2 North Ferriby 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-1.8
Chasetown					+7.5		-0.3

Whitby Town 3 Burscough 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					+5.8		-0.2
Stocksbridge					-1.6
Frickley					-2.1
Chasetown					-1.6
Mickleover					-0.5

Worksop Town 1 Stocksbridge 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worksop Town					No		-0.2
Whitby Town					-1.0
Stocksbridge					+1.1		-0.2
Mickleover					-0.4

Stafford 0 Buxton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					No		+1.2
Stafford							-1.2

Kendal Town 1 Ashton United 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town							-1.1
Ashton United							+1.3

Buxton 5 Kendal Town 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town							-1.2
Buxton							+1.2

Week of 4/21
Chester 4 Marine 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine			No

FC United 4 Northwich 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine			No

Frickley 4 Stafford 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					+1.4
Frickley					-33.9		+0.6
Chasetown					+23.5		-0.3
Mickleover					Yes		-0.2

Ashton United 0 Mickleover 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United							-0.9
Frickley					+5.5		-0.4
Chasetown					+9.1		-0.2
Mickleover					-14.6		+0.6

Burscough 4 Chasetown 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					No
Frickley					-8.3
Chasetown					+0.1
Mickleover					Yes

Stocksbridge 1 Kendal Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town							+1.1
Stocksbridge					+1.4		-0.5

Rushall Olympic 1 Matlock Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town							-1.0

Buxton 0 Whitby Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton							-1.0

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2011-2012 50/50

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