Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2011-2012

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																								Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Chester	100		31	-	7	-	4	73	Yes		Yes			100																						1.0		No			1	.814	Chester

Chorley	79		24	-	7	-	11	28	No		25.0	%			100																					2.0	+0.60	No			3	.636	Chorley
Bradford PA	78		24	-	6	-	12	28	No		25.0					100																				3.0	-0.60	No			5	.634	Bradford Park Avenue
Hednesford Town	73		21	-	10	-	11	18	No		25.0						100																			4.0	+0.08	No			4	.593	Hednesford Town
FC United	72		21	-	9	-	12	32	No		25.0		+0.0					100																		5.0	-0.08	No			6	.644	FC United of Manchester

Marine	66		19	-	9	-	14	6	No		No		-0.0						100																	6.0		No			7	.532	Marine
Rushall Olympic	61		17	-	10	-	15	1	No		No									100																7.0	+0.34	No			8	.502	Rushall Olympic
North Ferriby	58		16	-	10	-	16	-14	No		No										100															8.0	+1.30	No			10	.426	North Ferriby United
Nantwich Town	57		15	-	13	-	14	4	No		No											100														9.0	-1.01	No			9	.516	Nantwich Town
Kendal Town	53		15	-	8	-	19	-5	No		No												100													10.0	+2.80	No			11	.477	Kendal Town
Ashton United	53		15	-	8	-	19	-6	No		No													100												11.0	-0.83	No			15	.467	Ashton United
Buxton	53		15	-	8	-	19	-13	No		No														100											12.0	-1.39	No			13	.438	Buxton
Matlock Town	50		12	-	14	-	16	-2	No		No															100										13.0	-0.55	No			17	.484	Matlock Town
Worksop Town	49		13	-	10	-	19	-20	No		No																100									14.0	+0.63	No			16	.401	Worksop Town
Stafford	48		12	-	12	-	18	-5	No		No																	100								15.0	-1.28	No			12	.471	Stafford Rangers
Whitby Town	47		12	-	11	-	19	-23	No		No																		100							16.0	+0.26	No			14	.391	Whitby Town
Stocksbridge	42		10	-	12	-	20	-18	No		No																			100						17.0	-0.08	No		-0.4	19	.411	Stocksbridge Park Steels
Frickley	42		10	-	12	-	20	-21	No		No																				100					18.0	+0.92	No		-74.5	21	.384	Frickley Athletic

Chasetown	41		10	-	11	-	21	-25	No		No																					100				19.0	-0.78	Yes		+67.9	18	.372	Chasetown
Mickleover	40		11	-	10	-	21	-18	No		No																						100			20.0	-0.31	Yes		+7.1	20	.422	Mickleover Sports
Burscough	26		5	-	11	-	26	-50	No		No																							100		21.0		Yes			22	.303	Burscough
Northwich	0		26	-	8	-	8	30	No		No																								100	22.0		Yes			2	.656	Northwich Victoria

Week of 4/7
Stocksbridge 1 Chester 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bradford PA	No
Stocksbridge					+6.8		-0.3
Chasetown					-1.9
Mickleover					-1.8

Chester 1 Northwich 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chester	+0.4		+0.3
Northwich	-0.4		-0.3

Northwich 1 Hednesford Town 2
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chester	Yes		Yes
Hednesford Town			+6.1				+0.3
FC United			-5.8				-0.2
Northwich	No

FC United 1 Buxton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					-18.3		+1.2

Ashton United 1 FC United 0
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United					No		+1.2

Hednesford Town 2 Kendal Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town					No		+1.2

Chasetown 1 Hednesford Town 2
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-4.2
Stocksbridge					-3.5
Chasetown					+14.1		-0.5
Mickleover					-3.8

Chorley 3 Chasetown 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-2.4
Stocksbridge					-2.1
Chasetown					+10.1		-0.4
Mickleover					-2.8

Matlock Town 1 Marine 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town							-0.2

Kendal Town 1 Chorley 2
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town							-0.7

Mickleover 1 Stocksbridge 3
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					-29.3		+1.0
Mickleover					+30.4		-0.9

Whitby Town 2 Stafford 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stafford							-1.0
Whitby Town					-22.5		+0.9
Chasetown					+6.0		-0.2
Mickleover					+6.0		-0.2

North Ferriby 1 Whitby Town 0
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby							+0.9
Whitby Town					+14.5		-0.6
Stocksbridge					-3.3
Chasetown					-4.6
Mickleover					-4.4

Buxton 2 Matlock Town 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					-7.9		+1.0
Matlock Town							-1.1

Frickley 2 Worksop Town 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worksop Town							-0.8
Frickley					-6.9		+0.4

Nantwich Town 0 Frickley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Frickley					+1.9

Buxton 3 Stafford 1
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					-1.1		+1.0
Stafford							-1.1

Stafford 1 Nantwich Town 1
Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stafford					No		-0.3

Worksop Town 3 Ashton United 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United							-0.2
Worksop Town					-0.1		-0.2

Rushall Olympic 1 North Ferriby 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Rushall Olympic							-0.2

Week of 4/14
Matlock Town 2 FC United 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hednesford Town			+5.3				+0.2
FC United			-5.6				-0.3
Matlock Town							+1.4

FC United 1 Burscough 1
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United			-1.9

Bradford PA 3 Frickley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					No
Matlock Town					*No
Worksop Town					No
Whitby Town					-2.7
Frickley					+8.5		-0.4
Mickleover					-2.0

Marine 0 Rushall Olympic 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine			No

Whitby Town 3 Burscough 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					+11.3		-0.3
Frickley					-3.0
Chasetown					-4.0
Mickleover					-2.3

Stocksbridge 1 Nantwich Town 5
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					+9.6		-0.4
Chasetown					-4.5

Mickleover 1 Chester 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-3.6
Stocksbridge					-1.9
Frickley					-1.6
Chasetown					-1.8
Mickleover					+8.8		-0.3

Chasetown 2 North Ferriby 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-2.2
Stocksbridge					-1.7
Chasetown					+7.9		-0.2
Mickleover					-2.8

Rushall Olympic 2 Frickley 2
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Whitby Town					-1.5
Frickley					+5.6		-0.2

Worksop Town 1 Stocksbridge 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Worksop Town					No
Whitby Town					-0.5
Stocksbridge					-0.4		-0.2

Stafford 0 Buxton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton					No		+1.4
Stafford							-1.3

Kendal Town 1 Ashton United 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town							-1.3
Ashton United							+1.4

Buxton 5 Kendal Town 3
Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town							-1.2
Buxton							+1.2

Week of 4/21
Chester 4 Marine 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine			No

FC United 4 Northwich 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Marine			No

Frickley 4 Stafford 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					+0.9
Frickley					-34.4		+0.5
Chasetown					+26.4		-0.3
Mickleover					Yes		-0.2

Ashton United 0 Mickleover 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ashton United							-1.1
Frickley					+5.8		-0.5
Chasetown					+10.8		-0.2
Mickleover					-16.5		+0.7

Burscough 4 Chasetown 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Stocksbridge					No		+0.2
Frickley					-7.5
Chasetown					+0.9
Mickleover					Yes

Stocksbridge 1 Kendal Town 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Kendal Town							+0.9
Stocksbridge					+0.7		-0.5

North Ferriby 3 Nantwich Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
North Ferriby							+1.3

Buxton 0 Whitby Town 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Buxton							-1.1

Rushall Olympic 1 Matlock Town 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Matlock Town							-0.8

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Evo-Stik Northern Premier League Title Chances 2011-2012

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