Football League Championship Title Chances 2011-2012

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Promoted			Chance will finish season at seed																										Relegated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Avg.	Change	%	Change	RPI	Strength

Reading	89		27	-	8	-	11	28	Yes		Yes			100																								1.0		No		3	.653	Reading
Southampton	88		26	-	10	-	10	39	No		Yes		+6.9		100																							2.0	+0.09	No		2	.678	Southampton

West Ham	86		24	-	14	-	8	33	No		25.0	%	-6.9			100																						3.0	-0.09	No		1	.653	West Ham United
Birmingham	76		20	-	16	-	10	27	No		25.0		+0.0				100																					4.0	+0.89	No		4	.626	Birmingham City
Blackpool	75		20	-	15	-	11	20	No		25.0							100																				5.0	-0.54	No		5	.586	Blackpool
Cardiff	75		19	-	18	-	9	13	No		25.0		+3.1						100																			6.0	-0.23	No		6	.564	Cardiff City FC

Middlesbrough	70		18	-	16	-	12	1	No		No		-3.1							100																		7.0	+0.01	No		7	.502	Middlesbrough
Hull	68		19	-	11	-	16	3	No		No										100																	8.0	-0.03	No		10	.516	Hull City
Leicester	66		18	-	12	-	16	11	No		No											100																9.0	+1.91	No		9	.553	Leicester City FC
Brighton	66		17	-	15	-	14	0	No		No												100															10.0	-0.76	No		8	.496	Brighton and Hove Albion
Watford	64		16	-	16	-	14	-8	No		No													100														11.0	+2.22	No		12	.454	Watford
Derby	64		18	-	10	-	18	-8	No		No														100													12.0	-0.80	No		13	.449	Derby County FC
Burnley	62		17	-	11	-	18	3	No		No															100												13.0	-1.03	No		11	.511	Burnley
Leeds United	61		17	-	10	-	19	-3	No		No																100											14.0	-1.49	No		16	.481	Leeds United
Ipswich	61		17	-	10	-	19	-8	No		No																	100										15.0	+0.25	No		17	.461	Ipswich Town FC
Millwall	57		15	-	12	-	19	-2	No		No																		100									16.0	+0.16	No		15	.484	Millwall
Crystal Palace	56		13	-	17	-	16	-5	No		No																			100								17.0	-0.57	No		14	.463	Crystal Palace
Peterborough	50		13	-	11	-	22	-10	No		No																				100							18.0	+0.46	No		22	.452	Peterborough United
Nottm Forest	50		14	-	8	-	24	-15	No		No																					100						19.0	+0.67	No		18	.411	Nottingham Forest
Bristol City	49		12	-	13	-	21	-24	No		No																						100					20.0	-0.28	No		19	.362	Bristol City
Barnsley	48		13	-	9	-	24	-25	No		No																							100				21.0	-0.85	No		21	.369	Barnsley

Portsmouth	40		13	-	11	-	22	-9	No		No																								100			22.0	+0.19	Yes		20	.444	Portsmouth
Coventry	40		9	-	13	-	24	-24	No		No																									100		23.0	-0.19	Yes		24	.355	Coventry City FC
Doncaster	36		8	-	12	-	26	-37	No		No																										100	24.0		Yes		23	.311	Doncaster Rovers

Week of 4/13
Southampton 1 Reading 3
3:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Reading	+39.8		+4.8				+0.5
Southampton	-39.7		-3.0				-0.4

Peterborough 1 Southampton 3
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Reading	-12.8
Southampton	+13.6		+8.0				+0.2
West Ham			-7.5
Peterborough							-0.4

Reading 1 Nottm Forest 0
8:00 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Reading	+10.3		+1.4
Southampton	-9.0
West Ham	-1.2		-1.0
Nottm Forest					+0.3		-0.3

Bristol City 1 West Ham 1
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Southampton			+5.2
West Ham	-1.4		-6.2
Bristol City					-2.8
Portsmouth					+0.5
Coventry					+2.1

West Ham 6 Brighton 0
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Southampton			-3.5
West Ham			+4.1
Brighton			-2.2				-0.6

Barnsley 0 Cardiff 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Cardiff			+4.7				+0.7
Barnsley					+0.5		-0.5

Derby 0 Middlesbrough 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Middlesbrough			+3.9				+1.2
Derby							-1.2

Middlesbrough 0 Doncaster 0
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Middlesbrough			-3.3				-0.4

Cardiff 2 Derby 0
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Cardiff			+3.0				+0.4
Middlesbrough			-1.5
Derby			No				-0.8

Blackpool 1 Leeds United 0
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blackpool			+2.9				+0.4
Middlesbrough			-1.5
Leeds United			No				-0.8

Millwall 2 Leicester 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leicester			-2.6				-1.0
Millwall							+0.6

Brighton 2 Watford 2
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Brighton			-0.7				-0.3
Watford							-0.2

Watford 1 Hull 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Watford							-0.4

Leicester 0 Burnley 0
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leicester							-0.3
Burnley			No				-0.1

Nottm Forest 0 Blackpool 0
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Blackpool			-0.4

Burnley 1 Coventry 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Burnley							-0.6
Bristol City					+0.4
Coventry					*-0.1

Hull 3 Barnsley 1
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hull							+0.8
Barnsley					+0.7		-0.4

Ipswich 1 Birmingham 1
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ipswich							-0.2

Birmingham 2 Bristol City 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City					-4.6
Coventry					+3.5

Leeds United 4 Peterborough 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leeds United							+0.9
Peterborough							-0.4

Crystal Palace 1 Ipswich 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ipswich			*No
Crystal Palace							-0.3

Coventry 0 Millwall 1
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Peterborough					No		-0.2
Nottm Forest					No
Bristol City					-11.1
Barnsley					No
Coventry					+13.0		-0.3

Portsmouth 2 Crystal Palace 1
7:45 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Crystal Palace							-0.4
Bristol City					+2.2
Portsmouth					-3.2		+0.2

Doncaster 3 Portsmouth 4
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Portsmouth					-2.4		+0.3
Doncaster					Yes		-0.2

Week of 4/21
Middlesbrough 2 Southampton 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Reading	+18.2						+0.2
Southampton	-18.2		-2.7				-0.2
West Ham			+2.7
Middlesbrough			+3.0				+0.7

Reading 2 Crystal Palace 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Reading	-5.9
Southampton	+5.9

Leicester 1 West Ham 2
7:45 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Southampton			-5.9
West Ham			+5.9
Leicester							-0.9

Blackpool 4 Burnley 0
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Burnley							-0.7

Hull 2 Nottm Forest 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hull			+0.1				+0.7
Nottm Forest							-0.4

Bristol City 2 Barnsley 0
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City					No		+0.6
Barnsley							-0.7
Portsmouth					Yes
Coventry					Yes

Portsmouth 1 Derby 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Derby							+1.4
Bristol City					-6.0
Portsmouth					Yes		-0.3

Coventry 0 Doncaster 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bristol City					-2.2
Coventry					Yes		-0.3

Ipswich 0 Millwall 3
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ipswich							-1.1

Peterborough 2 Watford 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Watford							-0.2
Peterborough							-0.2

Week of 4/28
Southampton 4 Coventry 0
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Southampton			Yes
West Ham			-6.9

West Ham 2 Hull 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Southampton			-6.5
West Ham			+6.5

Watford 2 Middlesbrough 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Cardiff			+3.1
Middlesbrough			No				-0.2
Watford							+1.2

Crystal Palace 1 Cardiff 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Cardiff			+3.1				+0.7
Middlesbrough			-3.1
Crystal Palace							-0.5

Leeds United 1 Leicester 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Leicester							+1.5
Leeds United							-1.2

Nottm Forest 2 Portsmouth 0
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nottm Forest							+0.9

Derby 1 Peterborough 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Derby							-0.7

Burnley 1 Bristol City 1
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Burnley							-0.8

Doncaster 2 Ipswich 3
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Ipswich							+0.6

Birmingham 2 Reading 0
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Birmingham							+0.5

Millwall 2 Blackpool 2
3:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Millwall							-0.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Football League Championship Title Chances 2011-2012

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