UEFA 2009-2010 Tournament Qualification Odds

Chance that each team will qualify for the 2009-2010 UEFA tournaments.

NOTE: I still need to merge the Intertoto Cup into the UEFA Cup (and rename it the UEFA Europa League) for 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

Assumtions:

When I simulate a country’s cup winner (or winners, in the case of England and France), I assume that only teams from the country’s top league will win, and that each of those teams have an equal chance of winning.
I don’t account for the automatic spot defending champions get in the Champions League and UEFA Cup, so even if your team shows 0% chance they could still get in if they win the tournament this year or if they where next in line to go and a team ahead of them in their league won.
All 53 leagues have an equal chance at earning one of the three Fair Play UEFA Cup slots. I don’t account for Norway and Sweden’s fair play dominance.
Every league and team registers for and has not been banned from the tournaments.
Finally, this all still builds on the same 50/50 or Weighted logic as the rest of the site.

But other than all that :), I think this list covers all the rules for tournament entry.

The change columns show the change since last week. A team’s combined odds of getting into the 3 tournaments can exceed 100% because some of the Champions League losers and the Intertoto Cup winners get to also play in the UEFA Cup.

									Champions League		UEFA Cup		Intertoto Cup
	Country	P	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change	%	Change

Barcelona	Spain	87	27	-	6	-	5	70	Yes		No		No
Liverpool	England	86	25	-	11	-	2	50	Yes		No		No
AZ Alkmaar	Netherlands	80	25	-	5	-	4	44	Yes		No		No
Man. United	England	90	28	-	6	-	4	44	Yes		No		No
FC Porto	Portugal	70	21	-	7	-	2	43	Yes		No		No
VfL Wolfsburg	Germany	69	21	-	6	-	7	39	Yes		No		No
Inter Milan	Italy	84	25	-	9	-	4	38	Yes		No		No
AC Milan	Italy	74	22	-	8	-	8	35	Yes		No		No
Olympiakos	Greece	65	20	-	5	-	2	34	Yes		No		No
Marseille	France	77	22	-	11	-	5	32	Yes		No		No
Real Madrid	Spain	78	25	-	3	-	10	31	Yes		No		No
Beşiktaş	Turkey	71	21	-	8	-	5	30	Yes		No		No
Bordeaux	France	80	24	-	8	-	6	30	Yes		No		No
Bayern München	Germany	67	20	-	7	-	7	29	Yes		No		No
CSKA	Russia	56	16	-	8	-	6	29	Yes		No		No
Rubin Kazan	Russia	60	18	-	6	-	6	18	Yes		No		No
Anderlecht	Belgium	74	23	-	5	-	5	43	Yes		10.9	%	No
Rangers	Scotland	73	22	-	7	-	4	42	Yes		11.8		No
Celtic	Scotland	73	22	-	7	-	3	45	Yes		13.2		No
Standard Liège	Belgium	74	23	-	5	-	5	39	Yes		14.1		No
Chelsea	England	83	25	-	8	-	5	44	Yes		50.0		No
Juventus	Italy	74	21	-	11	-	6	32	Yes		50.0		No
Arsenal	England	72	20	-	12	-	6	31	Yes		50.0		No
Twente	Netherlands	69	20	-	9	-	5	31	Yes		50.0		No
Sporting Lisbon	Portugal	66	20	-	6	-	4	25	Yes		50.0		No
Atlético Madrid	Spain	67	20	-	7	-	11	23	Yes		50.0		No
Lyon	France	71	20	-	11	-	7	23	Yes		50.0		No
VfB Stuttgart	Germany	64	19	-	7	-	8	20	Yes		50.0		No
Genoa	Italy	68	19	-	11	-	8	17	Yes		50.0		No
Sevilla	Spain	70	21	-	7	-	10	15	Yes		50.0		No
Dynamo	Russia	54	15	-	9	-	6	12	Yes		50.0		No
Copenhagen	Denmark	74	23	-	5	-	5	41	Yes		25.0		No
Salzburg	Austria	74	23	-	5	-	7	39	Yes		25.0		No
Sivasspor	Turkey	66	19	-	9	-	6	26	Yes		25.0		No
Panathinaikos	Greece	54	15	-	9	-	3	29	44.4	%	53.5		17.6	%
PAOK	Greece	54	15	-	9	-	3	17	34.3		57.2		22.8
AEK Athens	Greece	53	14	-	11	-	2	17	21.3		58.3		34.3
Benfica	Portugal	59	17	-	8	-	5	22	No		Yes		No
Zenit	Russia	48	12	-	12	-	6	22	No		Yes		No
Everton	England	63	17	-	12	-	9	18	No		Yes		No
Toulouse	France	64	16	-	16	-	6	18	No		Yes		No
Braga	Portugal	50	13	-	11	-	6	17	No		Yes		No
CD Nacional	Portugal	52	15	-	7	-	8	15	No		Yes		No
Fiorentina	Italy	68	21	-	5	-	12	15	No		Yes		No
Amkar Perm	Russia	51	14	-	9	-	7	9	No		Yes		No
Hertha Berlin	Germany	63	19	-	6	-	9	7	No		Yes		No
Villarreal	Spain	65	18	-	11	-	9	7	No		Yes		No
Aston Villa	England	62	17	-	11	-	10	6	No		Yes		No
AS Roma	Italy	63	18	-	9	-	11	3	No		Yes		No
Hamburger SV	Germany	61	19	-	4	-	11	2	No		Yes		No
Ajax	Netherlands	68	21	-	5	-	8	33	No		Yes		No
Trabzonspor	Turkey	65	19	-	8	-	7	20	No		Yes		No
Rapid Wien	Austria	67	20	-	7	-	8	42	No		Yes		No
Odense BK	Denmark	69	21	-	6	-	6	34	No		Yes		No
Brøndby	Denmark	68	21	-	5	-	7	24	No		Yes		No
Sturm Graz	Austria	60	17	-	9	-	9	24	No		75.8		27.1
Hearts	Scotland	54	15	-	9	-	9	3	No		75.4		23.2
Deportivo	Spain	58	16	-	10	-	12	1	No		72.4		64.7
Gent	Belgium	59	17	-	8	-	8	26	No		71.1		38.6
Club Brugge	Belgium	56	17	-	5	-	10	7	No		70.8		38.9
PSG	France	64	19	-	7	-	12	11	No		69.9		69.7
Krylya Sovetov	Russia	48	12	-	12	-	6	18	No		68.9		62.1
Leixoes	Portugal	45	12	-	9	-	9	-1	No		68.9		62.1
Udinese	Italy	58	16	-	10	-	12	11	No		67.6		64.7
Fulham	England	53	14	-	11	-	13	5	No		67.6		64.7
Austria Wien	Austria	59	16	-	11	-	8	10	No		67.0		30.3
BVB	Germany	59	15	-	14	-	5	23	No		66.8		66.4
Aberdeen	Scotland	48	13	-	9	-	11	3	No		56.7		33.1
Midtjylland	Denmark	55	16	-	7	-	10	9	No		50.4		66.2
PSV Eindhoven	Netherlands	65	19	-	8	-	7	38	No		41.9		77.5
Fenerbahçe	Turkey	61	18	-	7	-	9	24	No		41.9		77.5
Valencia	Spain	62	18	-	8	-	12	14	No		33.8		No
Ried	Austria	57	16	-	9	-	10	19	No		33.5		42.1
Dundee Utd	Scotland	49	12	-	13	-	8	3	No		32.1		34.3
Lille	France	64	17	-	13	-	8	12	No		29.0		No
Málaga	Spain	55	15	-	10	-	13	-4	No		27.7		35.1
Lokomotiv	Russia	47	13	-	8	-	9	5	No		25.6		37.6
Académica	Portugal	39	10	-	9	-	11	-4	No		25.6		37.6
Rennes	France	61	15	-	16	-	7	8	No		25.2		30.1
Palermo	Italy	57	17	-	6	-	15	7	No		23.0		35.1
Tottenham	England	51	14	-	9	-	15	0	No		23.0		35.1
Hoffenheim	Germany	55	15	-	10	-	9	14	No		22.7		33.5
Randers FC	Denmark	46	11	-	13	-	9	2	No		17.4		33.5
AE Larissa	Greece	42	10	-	12	-	5	8	No		12.6		23.8
Hibernian	Scotland	42	10	-	12	-	11	-3	No		12.5		9.4
Galatasaray	Turkey	61	18	-	7	-	9	18	No		11.5		22.4
Heerenveen	Netherlands	60	17	-	9	-	8	9	No		11.5		22.4
Austria Kärnten	Austria	41	11	-	8	-	16	-7	No		11.0		0.5
Kapfenberg	Austria	36	10	-	6	-	19	-29	No		10.8		No
Linz	Austria	37	11	-	4	-	20	-30	No		10.8		No
Mattersburg	Austria	30	7	-	9	-	19	-31	No		10.8		No
Rheindorf Altach	Austria	27	7	-	6	-	22	-37	No		10.8		No
Mallorca	Spain	51	14	-	9	-	15	-7	No		10.2		0.2
Auxerre	France	55	16	-	7	-	15	0	No		10.2		0.1
Racing	Spain	46	12	-	10	-	16	1	No		10.1		No
Espanyol	Spain	47	12	-	11	-	15	-3	No		10.1		No
Getafe	Spain	42	10	-	12	-	16	-6	No		10.1		No
Osasuna	Spain	43	10	-	13	-	15	-6	No		10.1		No
Real Betis	Spain	42	10	-	12	-	16	-7	No		10.1		No
Valladolid	Spain	43	12	-	7	-	19	-12	No		10.1		No
Athletic Bilbao	Spain	44	12	-	8	-	18	-15	No		10.1		No
Almería	Spain	46	13	-	7	-	18	-16	No		10.1		No
Recre	Spain	33	8	-	9	-	21	-23	No		10.1		No
Numancia	Spain	35	10	-	5	-	23	-31	No		10.1		No
Sporting de Gijón	Spain	43	14	-	1	-	23	-32	No		10.1		No
Lorient	France	45	10	-	15	-	13	0	No		10.1		No
Nice	France	50	13	-	11	-	14	-1	No		10.1		No
Monaco	France	45	11	-	12	-	15	-4	No		10.1		No
Caen	France	37	8	-	13	-	17	-7	No		10.1		No
Valenciennes	France	44	10	-	14	-	14	-7	No		10.1		No
Sochaux	France	42	10	-	12	-	16	-8	No		10.1		No
Nancy	France	42	10	-	12	-	16	-9	No		10.1		No
Le Mans UC72	France	40	10	-	10	-	18	-11	No		10.1		No
Grenoble	France	44	10	-	14	-	14	-13	No		10.1		No
Saint-Étienne	France	40	11	-	7	-	20	-16	No		10.1		No
FC Nantes	France	37	9	-	10	-	19	-21	No		10.1		No
Le Havre	France	26	7	-	5	-	26	-37	No		10.1		No
AGF Aarhus	Denmark	45	13	-	6	-	14	-5	No		9.1		0.3
Motherwell	Scotland	41	11	-	8	-	14	-8	No		9.0		No
Kilmarnock	Scotland	34	9	-	7	-	17	-12	No		9.0		No
Falkirk	Scotland	28	6	-	10	-	17	-16	No		9.0		No
St. Mirren	Scotland	34	8	-	10	-	15	-16	No		9.0		No
Caley Thistle	Scotland	31	9	-	4	-	19	-20	No		9.0		No
Hamilton	Scotland	34	10	-	4	-	19	-21	No		9.0		No
AaB	Denmark	39	9	-	12	-	12	-9	No		9.0		No
Esbjerg	Denmark	32	7	-	11	-	15	-9	No		9.0		No
Nordsjælland	Denmark	35	9	-	8	-	16	-9	No		9.0		No
AC Horsens	Denmark	24	5	-	9	-	19	-23	No		9.0		No
SønderjyskE	Denmark	28	5	-	13	-	15	-26	No		9.0		No
Vejle	Denmark	25	4	-	13	-	16	-29	No		9.0		No
Zulte Waregem	Belgium	52	15	-	7	-	11	16	No		8.8		11.6
Westerlo	Belgium	52	15	-	7	-	11	6	No		8.5		10.1
Spartak	Russia	44	11	-	11	-	8	4	No		6.9		0.2
Guimaraes	Portugal	38	10	-	8	-	12	-4	No		6.9		0.2
Ergotelis	Greece	36	10	-	6	-	11	-6	No		6.9		0.7
Aris FC	Greece	38	10	-	8	-	9	-6	No		6.8		0.5
Skoda Xanthi	Greece	35	8	-	11	-	8	4	No		6.8		0.4
Maritimo	Portugal	37	9	-	10	-	11	-1	No		6.8		No
Moscow	Russia	38	9	-	11	-	10	-2	No		6.8		No
Saturn	Russia	33	7	-	12	-	11	-4	No		6.8		No
Paços Ferreira	Portugal	34	9	-	7	-	14	-5	No		6.8		No
Spartak Nalchik	Russia	32	8	-	8	-	14	-9	No		6.8		No
Estrela Amadora	Portugal	34	8	-	10	-	12	-12	No		6.8		No
Naval 1º de Maio	Portugal	29	7	-	8	-	15	-14	No		6.8		No
Terek Grozny	Russia	35	9	-	8	-	13	-14	No		6.8		No
Rio Ave	Portugal	30	8	-	6	-	16	-15	No		6.8		No
Tom' Tomsk	Russia	29	7	-	8	-	15	-16	No		6.8		No
Trofense	Portugal	23	5	-	8	-	17	-17	No		6.8		No
Khimki	Russia	27	6	-	9	-	15	-20	No		6.8		No
Yaroslavl	Russia	22	5	-	7	-	18	-23	No		6.8		No
Belenenses	Portugal	24	5	-	9	-	16	-24	No		6.8		No
Vitoria Setubal	Portugal	26	7	-	5	-	18	-25	No		6.8		No
Luch-Energia	Russia	21	3	-	12	-	15	-29	No		6.8		No
Asteras	Greece	33	7	-	12	-	8	6	No		6.7		0.0
Panthrakikos	Greece	32	9	-	5	-	13	-11	No		6.7		0.0
Panionios	Greece	30	8	-	6	-	13	-4	No		6.7		0.0
Levadiakos	Greece	29	8	-	5	-	14	-8	No		6.7		0.0
Iraklis	Greece	29	7	-	8	-	12	-14	No		6.7		0.0
OFI Crete	Greece	23	5	-	8	-	14	-15	No		6.7		No
Panserraikos	Greece	22	5	-	7	-	15	-23	No		6.7		No
Thrasivoulos	Greece	10	2	-	4	-	21	-28	No		6.7		No
Genk	Belgium	50	15	-	5	-	13	-1	No		6.1		0.8
Schalke	Germany	50	14	-	8	-	12	12	No		6.1		0.2
Werder Bremen	Germany	45	12	-	9	-	13	14	No		6.0		No
Leverkusen	Germany	49	14	-	7	-	13	13	No		6.0		No
FC Köln	Germany	39	11	-	6	-	17	-15	No		6.0		No
VfL Bochum	Germany	32	7	-	11	-	16	-16	No		6.0		No
Hannover 96	Germany	40	10	-	10	-	14	-20	No		6.0		No
Eintracht	Germany	33	8	-	9	-	17	-21	No		6.0		No
VfL Borussia	Germany	31	8	-	7	-	19	-23	No		6.0		No
Karlsruher	Germany	29	8	-	5	-	21	-24	No		6.0		No
Arminia Bielefeld	Germany	28	4	-	16	-	14	-27	No		6.0		No
Energie Cottbus	Germany	30	8	-	6	-	20	-27	No		6.0		No
FC Groningen	Netherlands	56	17	-	5	-	12	17	No		6.0		0.1
Bursaspor	Turkey	58	16	-	10	-	8	11	No		6.0		0.1
Kayserispor	Turkey	50	13	-	11	-	10	12	No		5.9		No
Feyenoord	Netherlands	45	12	-	9	-	13	8	No		5.9		No
Lokeren	Belgium	48	12	-	12	-	9	7	No		5.9		No
Germinal	Belgium	42	11	-	9	-	13	3	No		5.9		No
NEC Nijmegen	Netherlands	42	9	-	15	-	10	1	No		5.9		No
Gaziantepspor	Turkey	47	12	-	11	-	11	-2	No		5.9		No
FC Utrecht	Netherlands	44	11	-	11	-	12	-3	No		5.9		No
Eskişehirspor	Turkey	40	10	-	10	-	14	-4	No		5.9		No
Mouscron	Belgium	44	12	-	8	-	13	-4	No		5.9		No
Ankaraspor	Turkey	41	11	-	8	-	15	-6	No		5.9		No
Cercle Brugge	Belgium	44	13	-	5	-	15	-6	No		5.9		No
Charleroi	Belgium	40	11	-	7	-	15	-6	No		5.9		No
Mechelen	Belgium	46	12	-	10	-	12	-6	No		5.9		No
Vitesse Arnhem	Netherlands	43	11	-	10	-	13	-7	No		5.9		No
Antalyaspor	Turkey	40	10	-	10	-	14	-8	No		5.9		No
Istanbul	Turkey	42	12	-	6	-	16	-9	No		5.9		No
NAC Breda	Netherlands	45	13	-	6	-	15	-10	No		5.9		No
Ankaragücü	Turkey	39	11	-	6	-	17	-11	No		5.9		No
Konyaspor	Turkey	38	10	-	8	-	16	-11	No		5.9		No
Gençlerbirliği	Turkey	38	10	-	8	-	16	-12	No		5.9		No
Dender	Belgium	35	9	-	8	-	16	-13	No		5.9		No
Denizlispor	Turkey	38	11	-	5	-	18	-13	No		5.9		No
Den Haag	Netherlands	32	8	-	8	-	18	-17	No		5.9		No
Heracles	Netherlands	32	7	-	11	-	16	-18	No		5.9		No
Kortrijk	Belgium	35	8	-	11	-	14	-20	No		5.9		No
Roda JC	Netherlands	30	7	-	9	-	18	-20	No		5.9		No
Sparta	Netherlands	35	9	-	8	-	17	-20	No		5.9		No
Mons	Belgium	19	3	-	10	-	20	-23	No		5.9		No
Willem II	Netherlands	37	10	-	7	-	17	-23	No		5.9		No
Roeselare	Belgium	30	8	-	6	-	19	-25	No		5.9		No
Kocaelispor	Turkey	29	8	-	5	-	21	-26	No		5.9		No
FC Volendam	Netherlands	29	7	-	8	-	19	-29	No		5.9		No
De Graafschap	Netherlands	30	7	-	9	-	18	-34	No		5.9		No
OFTAŞ	Turkey	22	5	-	7	-	22	-39	No		5.9		No
Tubize	Belgium	24	6	-	6	-	21	-43	No		5.9		No
Cagliari Calcio	Italy	53	15	-	8	-	15	-1	No		5.5		0.2
West Ham	England	51	14	-	9	-	15	-3	No		5.5		0.2
Man. City	England	50	15	-	5	-	18	8	No		5.4		No
Napoli	Italy	46	12	-	10	-	16	-2	No		5.4		No
Atalanta BC	Italy	47	13	-	8	-	17	-3	No		5.4		No
Sampdoria	Italy	46	11	-	13	-	14	-3	No		5.4		No
Lazio	Italy	50	15	-	5	-	18	-9	No		5.4		No
Calcio Catania	Italy	43	12	-	7	-	19	-10	No		5.4		No
AC Siena	Italy	44	12	-	8	-	18	-11	No		5.4		No
Wigan	England	45	12	-	9	-	17	-11	No		5.4		No
Bolton	England	41	11	-	8	-	19	-12	No		5.4		No
Chievo Verona	Italy	38	8	-	14	-	16	-14	No		5.4		No
Stoke City	England	45	12	-	9	-	17	-17	No		5.4		No
Bologna	Italy	37	9	-	10	-	19	-19	No		5.4		No
Newcastle	England	34	7	-	13	-	18	-19	No		5.4		No
Portsmouth	England	41	10	-	11	-	17	-19	No		5.4		No
Blackburn	England	41	10	-	11	-	17	-20	No		5.4		No
Sunderland	England	36	9	-	9	-	20	-20	No		5.4		No
Torino	Italy	34	8	-	10	-	20	-24	No		5.4		No
Hull	England	35	8	-	11	-	19	-25	No		5.4		No
Middlesbrough	England	32	7	-	11	-	20	-29	No		5.4		No
Lecce	Italy	30	5	-	15	-	18	-30	No		5.4		No
West Brom	England	32	8	-	8	-	22	-31	No		5.4		No
Reggina Calcio	Italy	31	6	-	13	-	19	-32	No		5.4		No

234 teams	14 countries								3,500.000		5,104.245		1,400.000

I sum up the odds at the bottom as a sanity check.

I expect to see:

Champions League: The leagues I cover send 35 teams, so 3,500.000
UEFA Cup: The leagues I cover send 38 teams directly, plus (on average) 7 losers from the Champions League, 5.25 winners from the the Intertoto Cup, and .79245 Fair Play teams. That sums up to 5,104.245
Intertoto Cup: Each of the 14 leagues I cover send 1 team, so 1,400.000